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7/26 Stakes Racing
#140527 07/26/08 09:49 PM
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The $750,000 Whitney H. (G1), centerpiece of Saturday's $1.75 million "Breeders' Cup Challenge Day" at Saratoga, is deep with contenders. STUDENT COUNCIL (Kingmambo), RISING MOON (Runaway Groom), SOLAR FLARE (Arg) (Salt Lake), NOTIONAL (In Excess [Ire]), A. P. ARROW (A.P. Indy) and even MERCHANT MARINE (Tiznow) all merit serious respect for top honors from our perspective, but we're going with the speed.

COMMENTATOR (Distorted Humor) hasn't been around two turns since 2005. He weakened to second after setting the pace in the Metropolitan H. (G1) last time, but the seven-year-old gelding is back at the Spa, and he loves Saratoga Springs, New York. The Nick Zito runner knocked off eventual Horse of the Year Saint Liam in the 2005 Whitney, leading wire-to-wire for a neck decision that netted him a career-best 117 BRIS Speed rating. Commentator entered that edition in top form, registering a 116 Speed rating in his previous outing, and the lightly raced New York-bred has recorded Speed ratings of 113 and 107 so far this season. Razor-sharp presently, the chestnut has been working up a storm for this start, posting a four-furlong bullet move over the Oklahoma training track last week, and he's favorably drawn on the rail. They'll have to catch him.

Solar Flare has acclimated to North American racing quite nicely, recording a sharp allowance/optional claiming victory at Delaware Park in his U.S. debut two starts back and a close second in the Suburban H. (G1) most recently. The Larry Jones charge received a very legitimate 110 Speed rating for both efforts, and the four-year-old colt is well-drawn here in post 2. With his good tactical speed, Solar Flare figures to sit a perfect ground-saving trip behind the early leaders before offering his bid under Gabriel Saez.

Merchant Marine, who will will enter this event on the upswing for the ever-crafty Allen Jerkens, is a dangerous upset candidate. The four-year-old easily captured an allowance/optional claiming event three starts back and followed it with a game win in the Yankee Victor S., registering a 102 Speed rating for both efforts. He offered a good middle move to reach contention last time in the Suburban before flattening out a little late, but the late-blooming gelding gained valuable experience while earning a 105 Speed figure. Merchant Marine is improving, and he's a threat to put it all together against a less-than-stellar Whitney cast.

Student Council drew a tough post (10), but he's got the class to be a serious factor. Winner of the Pimlico Special H. (G1) two starts back, the six-year-old exits a decent third in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1). The Steve Asmussen trainee carries his form on any main track, and he's got enough speed to save some ground around the first bend. He appears to be training well for this start and is a must-use for us on the bottom of the exotics.

Notional was a top contender for last year's Kentucky Derby (G1) before being sidelined by an injury, but he didn't return at the same level earlier this season. The California-bred finally got things turned around in the Salvator Mile H. (G3) last out, recording an excellent 2 1/4-length decision over Gottcha Gold (Coronado's Quest) from just off the pace, and he merits a long look in this spot. Notional will pick up the services of Edgar Prado, and he drew a favorable inside post (3). The stalker could loom large turning for home.

Rising Moon also merits respect. Trained by Richard Dutrow, the five-year-old gray entered the Suburban in good form last time, but he suffered a bit of an uneven trip, appearing to be out of it at the top of the stretch before coming again late. The stalker still received a very respectable Speed rating (107), and his numbers in his last three outings are strong. Rising Moon reeled off four straight wins prior to his last outing, and he's eligible to improve off the class check. Don't be surprised to see him offer a rally from off the pace.

A. P. Arrow is another exotics contender. The Todd Pletcher pupil doesn't win often, but he fits well at this level. However, we didn't like his dull effort in the Suburban and will have to take a stand against him here. GRASSHOPPER (Dixie Union) showed a preference for the Spa last year, winning an allowance/optional claiming event by six lengths before finishing second in the Travers S. (G1) to Street Sense, but his recent form is too discouraging for us to recommend his chances. We'll let the Grade 3 winner beat us.

TIMBER RESERVE (Forest Camp) was a promising three-year-old last summer but headed to the sidelines after garnering the Pennsylvania Derby (G2). He returned earlier this year with a dull showing at Gulfstream, and we would've preferred to have seen trainer John Kimmel give him a confidence builder before throwing him in a tough spot like this. The dark bay also drew the far outside post.

TASTEYVILLE (With Approval) figures to show speed, but he's unplaced in two previous starts at the Spa and has class concerns on Saturday. COWTOWN CAT (Distorted Humor) looks better at middle distances and could find himself overmatched here.

1st-COMMENTATOR
2nd-SOLAR FLARE (Arg)
3rd-MERCHANT MARINE



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Re: 7/26 Stakes Racing
FREAK #140528 07/26/08 09:49 PM
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Saturday's $500,000 Diana S. (G1) attracted a dynamite group of 10 turf distaffers, but course condition could keep at least a couple of entrants from starting. Plenty of rain fell during the first two days of the meet, but Friday's sunshine dried out the sod some. However, there's a 30 percent chance of precipitation on Saturday, and we'll look for the turf to have some give to it regardless.

CRIMINOLOGIST (Maria's Mon) is two for two over the lawn at Saratoga, winning an allowance/optional claiming event under "good' conditions before taking the Perfect Sting S. last season, and displayed an affinity for yielding ground when easily capturing the Athenia H. (G3) last fall. The Shug McGaughey runner recorded a solid win in the Beaugay H. (G3) two starts back, but she wasn't able to make an impact in the Just a Game S. (G1) last time after being steadied in traffic. The one-mile distance was probably a little short for her, and the gray mare will likely appreciate the stretch out to nine furlongs. Criminologist has displayed a lethal late kick previously, and we believe she can develop into one of the best turf distaffers on the East Coast. We'll look for her to break through with her first Grade 1 tally here.

BIT OF WHIMSY (Distorted Humor) made up ground late to finish sixth, beaten only 2 1/2 lengths, in the Just a Game, and the four-year-old lass is another who figures to benefit from the added ground here. The chestnut came to hand last fall for Barclay Tagg, winning the Queen Elizabeth II Invitational Challenge Cup (G1) and Mrs. Revere S. (G2), but she's been unplaced in two starts this season. She likes ground with some give to it, and Bit of Whimsy appears capable of reverting back to form with a strong showing in the Diana.

BAYOU'S LASSIE (Outflanker) will be tested for class and distance, but she's a dangerous front runner who could last longer than expected on Saturday. The Dale Romans trainee recorded an excellent front-running victory over the "good" turf in the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G3) three starts back, and she's turned in respectable showings in her last two outings on firm ground. The Florida-bred figures to move forward over the expected conditions on Saturday, and she's a candidate to steal it on the lead.

FOREVER TOGETHER (Belong to Me) owns a formidable late kick, registering a 108 BRIS Late Pace rating for her third in the Just a Game last out, and the Jonathan Sheppard pupil posted a nice score over yielding ground in the Reluctant Guest S. two starts back. The four-year-old gray is on the upswing for her Hall of Fame conditioner, and Forever Together looms as a late-running threat for a minor award.

DYNAFORCE (Dynaformer) merits respect off an excellent second in the New York S. (G2) last time, and the European import will be at home on turf with some moisture in it. However, we're worried about a bounce. We've seen plenty of Europeans not run back to a strong showing in their stateside debut, and Dynaforce doesn't have a wealth of experience to draw upon. Despite those concerns, Dynaforce was so impressive last time that we must consider her for the exotics.

WAIT A WHILE (Maria's Mon) moves up on firm turf, but the gray mare hasn't performed her best on off turf and could easily wind up being scratched by Todd Pletcher. If the turf comes up satisfactory and she does compete, the classy $1.8 million earner can't be discounted from top three consideration.

Grade 1 winner VACARE (Lear Fan) is another one who probably needs firm ground to start. She's only made one appearance this season, an unplaced effort at 5-2 odds in the Just a Game, but the Christophe Clement pupil is capable of better. She wrapped up last year with a nice score in the one-mile First Lady S. (G2), and owns a 3-2-1-0 mark at nine furlongs. We'll take another look at her if the course is firm.

RUTHERIENNE (Pulpit) didn't fire her best over "good" ground in the All Along Cup S. (G3) last out, and the filly has dropped her last two starts after winning nine of her first 11. We're concerned that she's in a negative form cycle and will just watch to see how she performs here.

CHESTORIA (Chester House) and LADY DIGBY (Grand Slam) will occupy the two outside posts, and both have class concerns in this spot. We can't recommend the chances of either.

1st-CRIMINOLOGIST
2nd-BIT OF WHIMSY
3rd-BAYOU'S LASSIE



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Re: 7/26 Stakes Racing
FREAK #140529 07/26/08 09:50 PM
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Champion GINGER PUNCH (Awesome Again) towers over her rivals in Saturday's Go for Wand H. (G1) on Saratoga's opening weekend and appears primed to take her third straight under Rafael Bejarano. The Bobby Frankel-trained five-year-old has dropped just one start so far this season, running third in the Apple Blossom H. (G1), but has since added the Louisville S. (G2) and Ogden Phipps H. (G1) to her already stellar line. Her BRIS Speed ratings have topped the century mark in nine of her last 10 races, and Ginger Punch will continue her quest for a Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) title defense in this spot.

SPRING WALTZ (Silver Charm) and RUNWAY ROSIE (Include) appear to be the best of the rest, and we're tabbing the former to take down the place spot. The gray mare is coming off a near two-week break here, having run fourth most recently in the Delaware H. (G2). Prior to that one the fellow Frankel trainee racked up four straight wins, including a 13-length allowance/optional claimer score in her seasonal bow and a 3 1/4-length victory in the Rampart H. (G2), both coming at Gulfstream Park while going the Go for Wand's distance of nine furlongs. Spring Waltz will keep Javier Castellano in the saddle.

Runway Rosie enters this one off a 4 3/4-length win in the Proud Delta S. at Belmont Park, but didn't do so well when facing graded rivals at Pimlico in her previous race. So far this year at least, she appears to be more of an Aqueduct inner track runner, but could still garner some Grade 1 credit here under Rajiv Maragh.

COPPER STATE (Jump Start) earned a career-best 102 Speed figure when second last out in the Obeah H. (G3) and, if she shows that same kind of form, could surprise in the top three. The Steve Asmussen-trained bay has been training well at Belmont in advance of this one, and will get a jockey switch to Shaun Bridgmohan. INDESCRIBABLE (Pleasant Tap) was a well-beaten sixth in the Chicago H. (G3) last out in her first start for new trainer Bill Mott, but captured the Arlington Matron H. (G3) while still under the tutelage of Graham Motion before that one. She'll need to run back to that effort to earn a share of this one.

MOON CATCHER (Malibu Moon), winner of the last year's Delaware Oaks (G2), was well-beaten by Ginger Punch last out in the Ogden Phipps and we don't see her threatening here. Neither OVER UNDER (Seeking the Gold) nor INSIDE PASSAGE (Tiznow) appear fast enough to keep up against these, so we can't recommend.

1st-GINGER PUNCH
2nd-SPRING WALTZ
3rd-RUNWAY ROSIE



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Re: 7/26 Stakes Racing
FREAK #140530 07/26/08 09:50 PM
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An annual rite every Kentucky Derby (G1) week is the appearance of the "wise-guy" horse, a middle-priced runner who the talking heads suddenly start focusing on following a strong work and/or a closer re-examination of his past performance lines, which invariably shines the light on why he is going to peak on the first Saturday in May. Because the wise-guy choice ends up losing the Derby more often than not, we don't hear too much about wise-guy choices in other races throughout the year, though they do pop up from time to time.

THOR'S ECHO (Swiss Yodeler) has the look of one in Saturday's $250,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G2) at Saratoga, as the stalker is coming off a decent prep in the True North H. (G2) in his first race in more than a year, and looks to get a favorable trip behind an abundance of speed. There is no doubting, however, that Thor's Echo is still viewed favorably, deservedly or not, by a number of observers based on his campaign of 2006, when he scored a 15-1 upset of the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) and a victory in a sub-standard renewal of the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash (G1) to garner sprint champion honors. With two modest efforts in Dubai and his True North fourth his only three starts in the interim, however, the potentially underlaid price leads us to look elsewhere.

Another who stands to benefit from a contested pace is ABRAAJ (Carson City), who actually finished ahead of Thor's Echo in the True North though he was admittedly more fit. Nonetheless, Abraaj has impressed in recent morning trials, and his half-length loss to Benny the Bull (Lucky Lionel) looks even better after taking into account Abraaj's four-wide trip and Benny's next-out victory in the Smile Sprint H. (G2).

The probable favorite in the Vanderbilt is the undefeated New York-bred BUSTIN STONES (City Zip) who, though he is a front-runner in a race with a number of speed elements, fights like a bulldog through the lane to maintain his position. He has yet to be headed in six lifetime starts, the last two being the April 5 Carter H. (G1) and the February 18 General George H. (G2). Needless to say he has the ability to fire fresh, but this arguably is the best field he has faced as the Carter came up a bit light this year. The low price is really the only reason why we're not sticking with him.

Among those likely to give Bustin Stones a tussle in the early stages is BLACK SEVENTEEN (Is it True), who was sidelined last summer following a swift victory in the Carry Back S. (G2) at Calder. Black Seventeen only recently returned to competition in the June 14 Oakland S. at Golden Gate Fields and, not surprisingly, faltered a bit in the stretch to finish 1 1/2 lengths behind in second. While improvement is expected second time off the bench, we are still unconvinced he will return to his peak form here, so Thor's Echo is our selection to claim the show award.

FIRST DEFENCE (Unbridled's Song) returns to the dirt following a score in the Jaipur S. (G3) in his turf debut. Regardless of how he does here, the Breeders' Cup has ensured there is a World Championship race at Santa Anita in October with this versatile colt's name on it. Indeed, turf might arguably be the better option as his dirt sprint form has not been well defined, with a second in the 2007 King's Bishop S. (G1) and a seventh in the Vosburgh S. (G1) being the only frames of reference.

SAMMARCO (Johannesburg) jumps right into the deep-end of graded stakes company after only learning how to float, metaphorically speaking, in winning a maiden race in his last start. E Z WARRIOR (Exploit), who has not raced since beating one of 13 rivals in the December 26 Malibu S. (G1), appears outclassed in nearly all respects.

1st-ABRAAJ
2nd-BUSTIN STONES
3rd-THOR'S ECHO



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Re: 7/26 Stakes Racing
FREAK #140531 07/26/08 09:51 PM
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The above races are for Saratoga. The one below is for Del Mar

An evenly matched field of 11, including one also-eligible entrant, will travel one-mile over the lawn at Del Mar in Saturday's $150,000 San Clemente H. (G2). Black-Eyed Susan S. (G2) third SEATTLE SMOOTH (Quiet American) has been training forwardly in advance of her grass debut for expert turf conditioner Julio Canani, and we like the filly to run by them all late. Following two unplaced sprint efforts to begin her career, the bay Kentucky-bred captured her two-turn debut and followed with a neck second in the California Oaks. The Bay Meadows Oaks queen has grass pedigree on both sides of her lineage and should be tough under Mike Baze.

MISSIT (Ire) (Orpen) captured the Providencia S. (G2) in her U.S. debut in April and was most recently seen crossing the wire in fifth in the lucrative American Oaks Invitational S. (G1) for trainer Ben Cecil. The talented bay was compromised by pressing the pace in the American Oaks, and she'll likely enjoy a better trip from off the pace in here, which will benefit her in our opinion. The bay is good enough to win this under Victor Espinoza.

MISTY OCEAN (Stormy Atlantic) re-rallied after being passed in the lane to annex the Honeymoon H. (G2) for Jerry Hollendorfer last out, and the bay filly has won her last three turf starts by a combined 9 3/4 lengths. The bay Kentucky-bred has never been better and could be tough to reel in if she dictates a soft tempo, but we don't see that happening and will keep her in the show slot.

STORM MESA (Sky Mesa) has rolled to four straight commanding wins for Bret Calhoun and will make her turf debut in this spot. The dark bay miss was a smart winner in the Iowa Oaks (G3) last out and she could be a useful turf commodity, but the unknown factor of her ability on the lawn will restrict her use for the gimmicks.

SENSATIONAL LOVE (War Chant) was quite impressive in an allowance win at Gulfstream Park earlier in this campaign but never progressed a great deal on the East Coast under Allen Jerkens. The well-bred bay is far from bad, and the change of scenery and switch to trainer Neil Drysdale could do wonders for her, so we'll toss her in the exotics.

MINI DO (Hold for Gold), another Canani pupil, is unbeaten on the turf in two sprints and will now try to get two turns in this stiff test. The Everest Stables' homebred showed a nice rating tactic in her allowance score and should be able to handle this trip, so she's another we'll include in our gimmicks.

We've always liked Grade 3 miss TASHA'S MIRACLE (Harlan's Holiday), and the sophomore lass will attempt to handle the turf for the initial time for John Sadler. The Florida-bred bay was a strong third in the Hollywood Oaks (G2) most recently and could surely factor with this group if she handles the transition to the green under Mike Smith.

Late-runner BEL AIR SIZZLE (Unusual Heat) was third in the Providencia but has often settled for lesser prizes and we expect more of the same on this occasion. HOPEHOPEHOPE (Whywhywhy) dusted a decent maiden group at Hollywood most recently and will now attempt to make the huge jump to stakes foes for trainer Michael Orman. The bay filly likely has much room for improvement, and she was visually impressive last out, but we can't suggest her for the win against this bunch. GRACE ANATOMY (Aldebaran) is bred for the lawn but failed to impress in her grass debut last out, and we can't endorse the filly off her last showing.

If COMEBACK QUEEN (GB) (Nayef) draws in, we might include her in some of the exotics at an expected big price. A half-sister to Graded 2 winner Worldly (GB) (Selkirk), the gray hasn't shown much promise in her European career but could pop a big one "off the plane."

1st-SEATTLE SMOOTH
2nd-MISSIT (Ire)
3rd-MISTY OCEAN


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