Although the home and road teams split the four wildcard games of a year ago(98), the hosts were only able to beat the Vegas number in one the games, that being Green Bay over Seattle.
Those results extended what has now become a significant run of 9-1 ATS dominance by the road team in the Divisional Round. Of this year’s home teams, Carolina, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee, only the Steelers have hosted a Divisional Round game in the last five years.
Home teams have won 47 of the 64 Divisional Round playoff games since ’93. The ATS results are exactly split 31-31-2.
Road teams have been the hot bet of late, on runs of 9-1 ATS the L10 Divisional Round playoff games and 14-6 ATS in the L20.
Of the last 12 Divisional Round playoff games with pointspreads in the competitive +3 to -3 range, home teams are just 7-5 SU & 5-6-1 ATS.
Double-digit Divisional Round favorites own a low 10-5 SU & 7-7-1 ATS record since ’93, and are just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS over the last three seasons.
The higher the pointspread, the better the chance for a high scoring game in the Divisional Round. In games with a favorite line of -6.5 or more, the OVER is 24-13.
#1 Seeds in Divisional Round playoff games are 7-3 SU since ’04, but just 2-8 ATS. AFC #1’s have lost five straight games ATS. UNDER the total is on a 9-2-1 run in #1 seeded games.
Since the ’00 season, there have been seven occasions where one team has gone into the playoffs with the league’s best record. That team is 3-4 SU & 1-6 ATS in the Divisional Round. This year that team is Tennessee.
#2 Seeds have split their last 10 games outright and are 4-6 ATS. OVER is the more common total occurrence in those contests, 7-3.
The top two seeded AFC teams have been more prone to upsets lately than their NFC counterparts. Since ’04, AFC Divisional Round hosts are 5-5 SU & 2-8 ATS. Those from the NFC are 7-3 SU & 4-6 ATS.
The last four teams to pull an upset in the Wildcard Round own a 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS record in the Divisional Round.
As strange as it sounds, the home teams in the Divisional Round with 12 wins or less are upset less often than those with 13 wins or more. Those with 12 wins or less are 25-5 SU & 16-13-1 ATS since ’93, compared to 22-12 SU & 15-18-1 ATS for 13+ win clubs.
Eleven regular season wins seems to be the magic number for success by road teams in the Divisional Round. They are 14-13 SU & 17-10 ATS since ‘93. Those teams that won 10 or less games in the regular season but won their wildcard game are just 3-34 SU & 14-21-2 ATS in that same span.
The more extreme the posted total, the better the chance of the Divisional Round playoff game going OVER the total. In games with totals of 37 or less, the OVER is 11-5. In games with totals 49 or higher, the OVER is 7-3-1.
The secret to the NFC road underdog upset has been defense. In fact, in the last seven NFC Wildcard Playoff games where road teams pulled upsets, the total result has been UNDER, and the home team has averaged just 10.7 PPG.
In terms of scoring, 27 points is the magic number for home team success in the divisional playoffs. In games where they score 27 or more, they are 29-5 SU & 26-8 ATS (76.5%) since ‘93. In games where home teams don’t reach 27 points, they are a flip-of-the-coin 15-15 SU but an awful 5-23-2 ATS (17.9%)!
For the road team in the Divisional Round, success hinges on the modest 18-point mark. Those scoring 18 or more are 14-13 SU & 21-6 ATS, those producing 17 or less are 3-34 SU & 10-25-2 ATS
Like the Wildcard Round, the home team essentially dictates the total result. In past Divisional Round games where the hosts scored 23 or more points, the OVER is 27-9-1 since ‘93. In games where they fail to reach 23 points, the UNDER is 22-5.
