discreat cat
0-for-1 on Thursday, with Suit Yourself being a late scratch.
Churchill - Race 10
#4 Mission Impazible (7/2 ml)
I gave this horse out in his debut, where he showed uncommon late kick for a 2yo in powering home through the final sixteenth to get up at the wire over the return winner Grand Times (who was over 4 lengths clear of the rest of the field). Was well-supported in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes next time out, but was really up against it from a pace standpoint when facing the lightning-quick Ward 2yo Jealous Again (who returned at Royal Ascot, of all places, to win a Group One stakes by open lengths). In that race, Mission Impazible broke slowly and was way behind early before angling to the rail for the stretch run and then swerving through the field late as he gained considerable momentum in the late stages, reminiscent of his debut win. Seems to be taking the same route here as Ready's Image, Pletcher's star 2yo from a couple of years ago who won his debut at Keeneland before running third in the Kentucky Juvenile. Ready's Image came out of that race (as Mission Impazible is here) to win a Belmont stakes by 7 lengths, then went on to win the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga. Regarding Mission Impazible, the extra furlong here should do wonders for his chances, and although there's some speed in here, there's nobody nearly as quick as Jealous Again. Should be a bit closer early with a clean break, and a repeat of either of his first two races is probably good enough to win this. Improvement along the same lines as Ready's Image (a definite possibility) could make him a romping winner here. Will definitely take some action here because of Pletcher and the fact that he's the only horse in the race with prior stakes experience, but that should be somewhat counter-acted by the fact that his last-race Beyer is 13 points lower than that of the 3/1 morning line favorite Backtalk.
Hollywood - Race 3
#2 Gallant Gent (5/1 ml)
Maiden-claiming firster for Janet Armstrong has reportedly shown good speed in morning workouts, and faces a field that looks to be devoid of any early speed. Could pop the gate here and take them wire-to-wire at this short 5.5 furlong distance. Also worth noting that Armstrong is hitting at 25% from her last twenty maiden-claiming starters, for a giant flat-bet profit of over 50%.
Hollywood - Race 7
#4 Strawberry Tart (4/1 ml)
Oaklawn shipper faltered in the Railbird Stakes after battling Carlsbad on the early lead, but took to the grass like a duck-to-water last time out when rocketing home late to win going away in a turf sprint over this course. I was actually expecting her to battle on the early pace again, but she got bumped hard and knocked sideways a few jumps out of the gate, and ended up well off the pace. Hard to say whether the change in running style was by design, or a product of circumstance, but in any case it paid huge dividends here and marked Strawberry Tart as a potential star. Would expect Garcia to take her off the pace again tonight (and btw, her huge win last time also came at night), especially with a good bit of early speed lined up here. Main concern is her ability to stretch out to two turns effectively, and there's a chance her huge late kick loses some explosiveness here at the longer distance, but trainer Bonde hits at 20% when stretching out to a route, and this filly was far too impressive on the switch to grass last time not to like here, especially with the race coming at night again (some horses do in fact prefer night racing, perhaps due to the cooler weather).
