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Thursday Ponies
#202272 04/29/10 03:34 PM
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Courtesy of Mike Demspey

Here is today's opening race from Churchill Downs to get our day off to a good start:

CD Race 1 Clm $30,000N3L (12:45 ET)
#1 Falling Knife
#6 Luv Gov
#5 Double Pittsburgh
#2 Chef Eric

Analysis: #1 Falling Knife tracked the early pace and faded to finish a well beaten seventh last out against Alw-2 company in his first go off nearly a year on the sidelines. The gelding crossed the wire second and was put up via DQ two back against Alw-1 foes in his lone start over the main track here. He drops into a softer spot here for the Amoss barn that brings this guy back pretty quick, which looks like a good sign.

#6 Luv Gov won at this level last out at Oaklawn Park, his first win since breaking his maiden last May here. The colt earned the top last out speed fig in that outing but did not beat a very tough group.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,5,6
TRI: no play

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

CD Race 7 Edgewood (3:54 ET)
#2 Negligee 9/5
#9 Dynazapper 3/1
#8 Midway Holiday 4/1
#1 Potosina 7/2

Analysis: #2 Negligee tries turf for the first time today. This gal was my pick in last year's Alcibades (G1) at 13/1 where she won, then was my top pick in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), but she weakened to finish sixth while bearing out in the stretch. She made her three year old debut in a tough spot in the Ashland (G1) off a five month layoff, fading to finish seventh. She should take to the turf, her mare won once on the turf and has dropped one turf winner. The blinkers come off today. The Terranova barn is 26% winners with horses making their second start off a 45-180 day layoff.

#9 Dynazapper looked like she would be tough to beat last out at Keeneland, was sent off as the chalk, and came with a wide run but could only get third. Her lone go on turf was a decent fifth in the Herecomesthebride (G3) where she was beaten just 1 1/4 lengths for the top spot. She makes her third start of her currently form cycle while returning to grass.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 8/5 or better.
EX: 2,9 / 1,2,8,9
TRI: 2,9 / 1,2,8,9 / 1,2,7,8,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Churchill Downs
R3: #9 Elusive Temper 10/1
R3: #8 Sweet Tune 8/1
R4: #4 Onelittleindianboy 12/1
R5: #11 Summerlucky 10/1
R5: #3 Executive Chief 10/1
R9: #6 Au Moon 8/1
R9: #1 Whirling Thunder 8/1
R10: #12 Speedboat Sally 12/1
R10: #5 Remember the Keg 20/1

Good luck today!

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Re: Thursday Ponies
Joeaveragefan #202273 04/29/10 03:35 PM
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CDX 2nd (1:14)

6 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Starter Allowance | Purse: $16,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Yikes Lenclud F Vance David R 115 5 LA 5-1
2 2 Officer Philly Mena M Cristel Mark J 124 LA 3-1
3 3 Scara Brae Borel C H Ashcraft David 120 LA 5-1
4 4 Alpha Tammy McKee J Gray Gary 120 LA 10-1
5 5 Singing Rose Pompell T L Winstead Robert D 120 L 15-1
6 6 Lavenham De La Cruz F Locker Timothy 120 L 5-1
7 7 Springtime Spell Pitty C D Mendoza Carmelo 122 L 4-1
8 8 Four Paws Hernandez B J Jr Woodard Joe 122 LA 9-2

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)

Battagliaspicks 2-6-5

#2 Officer Philly 5 year old mare has a big edge on class winning two allowance races, one sprinting and one going long. She has won two of her last three and is one of the best bets of the day.


Re: Thursday Ponies
Joeaveragefan #202293 04/29/10 06:23 PM
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Arlington Park Value Play courtesy of Warren Eves

Race 4: #2 All Kidding Aside. Last out at HAW, this one popped and then stopped but did not appear to be abused late. There is other speed in this race and two others entered by Bennett which may protect the price. I look for this one to grab the lead and not look back at a reasonable price in a short field off the ML of 6/1.


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