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Wednesda at the Track
#206984 07/14/10 06:58 AM
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SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Belmont Park (4th) Evangelical, 3-1
(9th) Chuckie's Honor, 3-1
Colonial Downs (5th) Hey Johnny Johnny, 5-1
(6th) Busy Bev, 9-2
Delaware Park (6th) Toot Z Roll, 8-1
(7th) Timber Lane, 9-2
Evangeline Downs (3rd) Extra Shoes, 7-2
(10th) Patroon, 7-2
Indiana Downs (2nd) Ferdie's Guy, 7-2
(4th) Heavenly Sister, 5-1
Penn National (4th) Ask Joe, 7-2
(8th) Sylvia's Sweetart, 4-1
Presque Isle Downs (1st) Putitonwaynestab, 7-2
(4th) Connie's June Moon, 6-1
Suffolk Downs (1st) Carmas, 8-1
(8th) Bea Precise, 7-2
Woodbine (2nd) Fabric, 9-2
(8th) Mobil the Gambler, 4-1


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Re: Wednesda at the Track
Joeaveragefan #206985 07/14/10 07:00 AM
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Courtesy of Mike Dempsey

Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Clm $20,000N1Y (1:00 ET)
#3 Juke Joint 7/2
#5 Straight Romance 5/1
#2 Regal Prince 2/1
#1 Of All Times 10/1

Analysis: #3 Juke Joint is making his first start since last November. The colt went 0 for 7 last year after going 3 for 4 in '08. I like the barn switch to Galluscio, who is good with newcomers to the barn and also solid off the bench, hitting at a 33% clip (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. The colt has only tries turf once, a decent third two back at Philly. The colt is a stakes winner on Tapeta and dirt and has one sib, her lone win in 12 starts coming on turf.

#5 Straight Romance set the early fractions and weakened to finish third last out at this level. In three of his four previous starts he ran into repeat winners. The five time turf winner owns solid early and mid pace numbers and fits here with his best.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 1,2,3,5
TRI: 3,5 / 1,2,3,5 / 1,2,3,5,7

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 7 Clm $25,000B (4:12 ET)
#6 Too Amenable 7/2
#10 Cozy Lion 2/1
#2 Worthy Wager 10/1
#7 The Plot Thickens 8/1

Analysis: #6 Too Amenable makes his second start off the bench and his first for a tag here after checking in sixth last out against state bred Alw-2 optional claimers off a 6 1/2 month layoff. The gelding has a pair of turf wins, both coming against NY breds. He figures to be fitter second off the layoff and this looks like a good spot here tagged for $25K and facing non-winners of three. He has some talented sibs including John Paul Too ($326K) and Too Scarlet ($269K).

#10 Cozy Lion tracked the early pace and faded to finish sixth last out against optional claimers. The gelding drops into a softer spot here and fits well although he draws a tough post and the price may be on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 6,10 / 2,6,7,10
TRI: 6,10 / 2,6,7,10 / 2,6,7,9,10

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #1 Of All Times 10/1
R6: #6 Blue Horseshoe 20/1
R6: #4 Adirondack Dew 8/1
R7: #2 Worthy Wager 10/1
R7: #7 The Plot Thickens 8/1

Good luck today!

Re: Wednesda at the Track
Joeaveragefan #206986 07/14/10 07:02 AM
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BEL 9th (5:17)

6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Maiden Claiming ($16,000) | Purse: $18,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 2 Karakorum Budman Luzzi M J Odintz Jeff 118 $16,000 L 6-1
1A 9 Mount Karakorum Lezcano A Odintz Jeff 118 $16,000 L 6-1
2 1 Rubinstein Santiago V Kimmel John C 122 $16,000 L 5-1
3 3 My Man Jake Rodriguez J Badgett William Jr 111 7 $16,000 L 5-1
4 4 River Smoke Bermudez J E Alvarez Luis C 118 $16,000 L 50-1
5 5 Last Mistake Corujo W Imperio Joseph 115 7 $16,000 L 12-1
6 6 Vision of Magic Espinoza J L Callejas Bernardo 122 $16,000 FTL 15-1
7 7 Cathy's Rascal Lopez A Hertler John O 111 7 $16,000 L 20-1
8 8 Nozzy Minogue Chavez J F Kelly Patrick J 118 $16,000 L 10-1
9 10 Jelly Roll Kid Bridgmohan J V Ferraro James W 122 $16,000 FTL 20-1
10 11 Chuckie's Honor Velasquez C Rodriguez Rudy R 122 $16,000 L 3-1
11 12 Uncle Pat Lezcano J Barbara Robert 122 $16,000 Blk-On L 9-2

A-Coupled: Karakorum Budman and Mount Karakorum

Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10) Wagers

Brian Blessing's Pick's 11-6-10

Uncle Pat adds blinkers for this dash, which should help get him into the race a little earlier on. Lezacano takes the mount, which is always a good sign. The price might be right to boot.


Re: Wednesda at the Track
Joeaveragefan #206987 07/14/10 07:08 AM
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Belmont Longshot courtesy of Horse Watch

BEL 9th #5 Last Mistake (12-1) Didn't fire in his last finishing 6th, moves back to statebred company and worked well for this, has shot in here at a decent price.

Re: Wednesda at the Track
Joeaveragefan #206993 07/14/10 04:17 PM
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BEL 8th courtesy of John Pricci

Dreaming of Value

Today’s feature, a classified allowances for state-bred fillies going a mile on turf, might be in jeopardy if the weather handicappers are correct--chance of thunderstorms. This analysis will concentrate on grass.

Favorite Cagey Girl (9-5) is going to be a tough out. She showed improvement winning her last, her first start for the Asmussen barn, she’s controlling speed, loves the route and returns with excellent six-week spacing.

What we’re hoping, however, is that Alan Garcia on Merriwether Jessica notes this and uses his filly to put pressure on Cagey Girl. ‘Jessica’ is coming off a sharp win here in her first start since the shift to Rick Violette’s shed.

Johnny Velazquez will be keeping an eye on both of them from the pole aboard Paraiba and, hopefully, Javier Castellano will be sitting close-up behind all three with late developing 4 year old Our Golden Dream (5-1). Her performance figures have been improving incrementally, indicating further development is likely, and her running style might enable her to make the last move at this trip a winning one. Two of her three lifetime wins have come on Belmont grass.

Taking Our Golden Dream to win at 4-1 or greater and boxing her in the exacta with Cagey Girl.


Re: Wednesda at the Track
Joeaveragefan #206995 07/14/10 05:37 PM
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Value Plays courtesy of Rick Needham

INDIANA DOWNS
RACE #1: The 4-1 shot, #8 KHUKURI, takes a class drop (-9), and is the overall speed leader in this claiming field racing at, or about, today's distance of 8½ furlongs on the turf.

PRESQUE ISLE DOWNS
RACE #2: #11 CATS KITTY is 5-1 in the morning line, takes a class drop (-11), and has good overall speed for this sprint.


NOTE: The longshot entries listed below have been "found" utilizing TrackMaster's fantastic new product Ultra Angles ... I have utilized this product to scan EVERY TRACK in North America for entries today meeting the following 3 criteria:

a. Odds are GREATER THAN 4-1
b. The entry must be the TOP POWER RATED entry in the field
c. The entry must also have the BEST SPEED in this field for today's distance and surface!
NOTE: Listed Post Times are given in the local time zone of the track.

Belmont Park - Race #9 5:17PM - #2 RUBINSTEIN 5/1
Colonial Downs - Race #1 - 4:00PM - #2 RED MARY 4/1

Re: Wednesda at the Track
Joeaveragefan #206996 07/14/10 07:18 PM
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Major scratches at Belmont

Weather: (Morning)CLOUDY 77 (Post) Track: MUDDY / SEALED Turf: YIELDING Turf Races: 5,8 - ON TURF ( 1,6,7 - OFF TURF ) Inner: Set at 27 Ft Widener: Set at 18 Ft P6 Carryover: NONE Takeout - 16.00 % DAILY NOTES *** GUARANTEED $300,000 LATE PICK 4 - SATURDAYS @ BELMONT *** SCRATCHES Race Program # Horse Time Notes 1 1 Of All Times Early OFF TURF / NO SHOW, PLACE, EXACTA, TRIFECTA or SUPERFECTA 2 Regal Prince Early 4 Can't Refuse Early 5 Straight Romance Early 6 Kick Up Your Heels Early 7 Berning Blaze Early 8 Colie Z Early 10 Fiery Rebel Early 2 1 Khan of Khans Early NO SHOW or TRIFECTA 1A Kiln Creek Early 5 Acclimate Early 4 8 Promise Me a Cat Early 5 6 Hammock Early NO SUPERFECTA 6 3 Military Star Early OFF TURF 4 Adirondack Dew Early 7 Supreme Serene Early 8 N P Cat Early 7 1 Count Catamount Early OFF TURF / NO SHOW , TRIFECTA , or SUPERFECTA 4 Retake Early 7 The Plot Thickens Early 8 Gold Cup Kid Early 9 Medjool Early 10 Cozy Lion Early 9 1 (poe) Karakorum Budman Early 2 Rubinstein Early 4 River Smoke Early 7 Cathy's Rascal Early


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