All good things come to an end – and this version of The Limper NBA will likely be over this Thursday.
The fact that so many big time free agents will be available this Summer has meant roster manipulations which makes a team’s past performance numbers completely unreliable. That coupled with playoffs-bound starters resting or playing reduced minutes (not to mention early tanking for Zion Williamson) has made the model’s projection numbers crater pretty badly.
When the variation between the model’s averaged, seasonal projected MOV and the actual MOVs for each game exceeds double figures, it’s time to call it a day. It was 6.3 on 12/31/18, but that variation now stands at 10.22; and, assuming it doesn’t drop back to under 10 this week (which is pretty unlikely), continuing this model’s daily projections would be downright misleading.
I’ll be back for the playoffs, when teams stop screwing around so, likely after this week – see you in April.
Last edited by WillyBoy; 02/12/19 09:31 PM.