7:05 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (62-88) at Pittsburgh Pirates (65-85)
The Mariners and Pirates have no shot at the playoffs and enter this Interleague series trending in completely different directions. Seattle has won two in a row and four of their last six while Pittsburgh just lost three straight to the Cubs, getting crushed 47-15 along the way. Marco Gonzales (15-11, 4.30 ERA) faces rookie Mitch Keller (1-4, 8.29). You would think the Mariners would be favored in this one based on recent play and the pitching matchup. However, the Pirates opened as -115 home favorites and pros have hammered them all the way to -135 (the Mariners went from +110 to +125). The total opened at 9 with even juice on both sides and now the 9 Over is being juiced up to -115 or -120, signaling Over liability and the next likely move up to 9.5. These are the two best Over teams in baseball (Mariners overs 84-58-8 and Pirates overs 87-56-6).
7:45 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (82-67) at St. Louis Cardinals (84-66)
The Cardinals took down the Nationals 4-2 in last night's series opener, cashing as +130 home dogs. Tonight the Nats have the starting pitching advantage (Patrick Corbin 12-7, 3.20 ERA vs Miles Mikolas 9-13, 4.28 ERA) but the Cardinals are hard to bet against at home (47-28). As a result, early moneyline tickets are split. But sharps have taken a clear side. The line opened with Washington listed as a short -115 road favorite and St. Louis a +105 dog. We've seen the line move away from the Nats (-115 to -107) and toward the Cards (+105 to -103), signaling wiseguys buying low on the home dog to post another victory. Pros have also hammered the Under, causing it to fall from 8.5 to 8. The wind is blowing in from center at 7 MPH.
10:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (89-62) at Los Angeles Dodgers (97-54)
The final game of the night also happens to be the most intriguing. The Rays are holding onto the 2nd Wild Card spot for dear life (1.5 games up on the Indians) while the Dodgers are cruising into the playoffs with the best record in the NL. Blake Snell (6-7, 4.28 ERA), the 2018 AL Cy Young winner, makes his first start since undergoing elbow surgery in late July. He is only expected to go a few innings and will face the Dodgers' Ross Stripling (4-4, 3.40 ERA). Los Angeles opened as short -130 home favorites and have fallen to -122, signaling early smart money grabbing the Rays (+120 to +113). The total opened at 8.5 and the juice has moved to 8.5 under at -120. This indicates under liability and the next move likely down to 8.
Believe it or not, WNBA is secretly one of the best sports to get down on for wiseguys. The market is small and there is no public to bet against, which all but erases the value of going contrarian. However, true sharps who put in the time and do their homework can gain a big advantage over sportsbooks who expose themselves by setting soft lines. Also, following line movement in the WNBA is profitable because only sharps are betting these games, so you know the moves were caused by professionals with an edge.
As it stands now, we are down to 4 teams in the WNBA playoffs: Sparks vs Sun and Aces vs Mystics in the Semifinals. The first two rounds were single elimination and now the semifinals and finals are a best of 5 series.
Historically, we've seen a big edge toward favorites and Overs in the WNBA playoffs. Here are some notable trends via Bet Labs Sports since 2005
Postseason favorites: 52.6% ATS
Short favorites -1 to -5: 56% ATS
Road favorites: 69.4% ATS
Short road favorites -1 to -5: 74.1% ATS
Overs 155 or higher: 57.3%
Overs 165 or higher: 61.8%
6:30 p.m. ET
Sparks -1 at Sun
Sparks-Sun Over 159.5
8:30 p.m. ET
Aces-Mystics Over 171