8:15 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings (8-3) at Seattle Seahawks (9-2)
This Monday Night showdown is a possible NFC playoff preview, with both teams a combined 17-5 record. Minnesota is tied with the Packers for first place in the NFC North. The Vikings are riding a two-game winning streak, most recently beating the Broncos 27-23 but failing to cover as 10-point favorites. Minnesota is plus 84 in point differential, averaging 26.27 PPG on offense and allowing 18.64 PPG on defense. Seattle has won four straight, most recently defeating the Eagles 17-9 as a 2-point road favorite. Seattle is plus 29 in point differential, averaging 26.55 PPG on offense and allowing 23.91 PPG on defense. With the 49ers losing to the Ravens yesterday, the Seahawks can assume first place in the NFC West with a win tonight (both teams would be 10-2 but Seattle would own the head-to-head tiebreaker over San Francisco).
The Seahawks opened as 3-point home favorites. Two-thirds of bets are laying the points with Seattle at home. However, despite this lopsided public support, the line has fallen to 2.5. This signals a sharp reverse line move toward the Vikings, with pros grabbing Minnesota at the key number of plus 3. The Vikings have value as a road dog (69-44 ATS, 61.1% this season) and a short road dog plus 6 or less (46-32 ATS, 59%). The Vikings are also coming off a bye, which means they enjoy added rest and extra time to game-plan. The Seahawks are on regular rest having played last week. Seattle is 5-1 ATS on the road but just 1-4 ATS at home.
The total opened at 48.5. The public sees a high total with two good defensive teams and a majority of bets are taking the under. However, we've seen this line rise to 50, signaling sharp money on a rare contrarian over. Both teams are 6-5 to the over this season. The weather shouldn't be a factor. It's expected to be partly cloudy, mid 40s with little to no wind. Prime-time unders are 25-14 (64.1%) this season. Clete Blakemen, the head official, favors road teams (52.8% ATS) and unders (54.4%) historically.