I get asked a lot what % do I have to win at to beat the books if playing money lines only.

Here is the breakdown and as you can see by betting on the dogs at the plus money the higher the + the less the percentage of games you need to win to be profitable.

Fav of -110 must win 52%, dog of + 110 must win 48%

Fav of -115 must win 53%, dog of + 115 must win 47%

Fav of -120 must win 55%, dog of + 120 must win 45%

Fav of -125 must win 56%, dog of + 125 must win 44%

Fav of -135 must win 57%, dog of + 135 must win 43%

Fav of -140 must win 58%, dog of + 140 must win 42%

Fav of -145 must win 59%, dog of + 145 must win 41%

Fav of -150 must win 60%, dog of + 150 must win 40%

Fav of -155 must win 61%, dog of + 155 must win 39%

Fav of -160 must win 62%, dog of + 160 must win 38%

Fav of -165 must win 62%, dog of + 165 must win 38%

Fav of -170 must win 63%, dog of + 170 must win 37%

Fav of -180 must win 64%, dog of + 180 must win 36%

Fav of -190 must win 66%, dog of + 190 must win 34%

Fav of -200 must win 67%, dog of + 200 must win 33%

Fav of -220 must win 69%, dog of + 220 must win 31%

Fav of -250 must win 71%, dog of + 250 must win 20%

Fav of -300 must win 75%, dog of + 300 must win 25%


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