Freaks Random Thoughts and Final Picks
1 Tap To Win - Comes into the race off back to back lifetime speed ratings of 99 and 101. Has the horse peaked? Keep in mind it's last two races were 16K State Bred Optional Claimer and last out a 66K Allowance race. Horse is picked on a lot of tickets to win or come second. I remember the horse last year finishing last in it's last two races of 2019 10th of 10 in both. When it has stepped up in class it hasn't performed. This horse will need to show me something today.
2. Sole Volante - If you read through the posts, you know I like this horse to win today. Concern obviously is last racing on June 10th. Horse hasn't finished off the board in it's six starts with four wins. Considered an outsider from the get go going off at nearly 14-1 in both it's first two starts - both going away wins. Won the SF Davis stakes and 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby, oddly enough the only time favored. Relishes the underdog role it appears. Speed ratings are consistent 81-95-100-102-96-98, will need to likely run a triple speed figure to win today. My top pick.
3. Max Player - Won the Withers last out in February. Only two works in June. In it's three race career it has finished 2-1-1. Has Joel Rosario aboard and that along will likely drop the odds but who has he beaten and the 4 month layoff is a concern. Pass
4. Modernist - Won the Risen Star back in February and followed that up with a 3rd in the LA Derby. Career best speed ratings in those races of 92-93. A mid pack closer that may be in the mix for the bottom end of superfectas. Mott the trainer a plus, he seems to do his best with horses when nobody expects anything.
5. Farmington Road - Last win came back on January 12th breaking his maiden in a 27K maiden race. May have peaked back in April in the Oaklawn Stakes finishing 2nd earning a 96 speed rating followed up wihth a 94 finishing 4th in the Arkansas Derby. There's some outside love for this horse because of Pletcher and Castellano, I just can't see it at all.
6. Fore Left - West Coast horse that won it's first two lifetime races as a favorite at Santa Anita and Belmont over a year ago. Went back out west and stayed there until his last race in Dubai which was a winning effort in the 2000 Guineas a Grade 3 race. Really don't know what to think of this horse because he either runs well or doesn't run at all. The Dubai race is a bit of a head scratcher and was over 4 months ago. I would pass on this horse and if it beats me, I'll just tip my hat and maybe eat it too.
7. Jungle Runner - Only reason this horse is in the race in my eyes is to be the rabbit for his uncoupled stable mate. This horse has absolutely no merit in being in this race and is a total disgrace to horse racing. Yes Steve Asmussen, a total disgrace.
8. Tiz The Law - The horse that will likely go off at 3/5 or 4/5. These kind of races the public loves a favorite and boy do they ever. The once a year maybe two or three time a year horse player that loves names, numbers and favorites. Well this horse fits all the criteria. It also just happens to be a good horse that has only lost once in his 5 race career. Back to back triple digit speed ratings and owns the highest in the race at 108. Won the Holy Bull and Florida Derby going away in both races. Will be tough to beat if he runs back to either of those races. However I am looking to beat him. Must be used on all exotic tickets.
9. Dr Post - The wise guy horse. Todd Pletcher's best chance at winning the Belmont. Has been the favorite in all three of his lifetime races winning two of them. His Second race a 50K maiden and then the 75k Unbridled Stakes. Speed figures have been a bit wonky 83-104-94 so not sure what we will get today. If Jungle Runner does what I think he will do, it helps his cause, but I am not on this horse, that doesn't make me a wise guy.
10. Pneumatic - Another horse getting attention. The whole reason Jungle Runner is in the race is for this guy. Will it work? He need a fast pace out front, but will anyone engage Jungle Runner? Nothing special on his resume 2 wins in 3 races. 85k Maiden and 80k OC then finished third has last race in the Grade 3 Matt Winn. Not sure why all the excitement here. Just can't see this horse winning. Perhaps a bottom piece of the superfecta.
Sole Volante to win over Tiz The Law and you can use Tap To Win/Modernist/Dr Post/Pneumatic to finish 3rd or 4th............ after the top 2, it's just going to pure mayhem and any of them can finish third or fourth.
Just to save my ass, I am going to use Tiz the Law over Sole Volante first/second over the rest for third/fourth. Hey I'm not stupid, for a few bucks I might as well cover myself for insurance purposes.
Good Luck everyone. Let's see how I fare today in this race.
The good thing about horse racing is there is always another race within 20 minutes or less after one ends. As I stated in my first post, I wasn't excited about this race at all. That proved to be true, I couldn't get excited with no fans cheering, people singing New York New York, the roar of the crowd around the turn and hell let's face it 3/8 of a mile less and it just didn't sit with tradition as I mentioned.
The hype, the press, the coverage, the experts almost all got it right with their 4/5 favorite pick. Congrats you won with the favorite. No sour grapes here, my choice was done after the gate swung open. Dead last to start, made a little rally along the rail and then veered across the track to the middle to finish an uninspiring 6th place finish. Will have to hear from the trainer/jockey to find out what was wrong with the horse.
In review of my write ups, I said Tiz The Law would be tough to beat, Dr Post was the wiseguy horse and Pneumatic was perhaps a bottom piece of the superfecta and that's where he ended. The piece I had totally wrong was Sole Volante. Few other tidbits, Fore Left, well he was Foregotten and ran second last. Jungle Runner finished dead last and never materialized as the rabbit. Again Steve Asmussen you know way more than me about horses, but this stunk to high heaven.
Sole Volante never got the hot pace needed because it just never materialized.
Not sure how to get excited about the Kentucky Derby from here.............
I hope the information posted, selections and my attempt at a write up of my own aided you in some way and that you made some money on the races today.