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Belmont

Race 1:#2 Mrs. Danvers (1/1)


Race 2:#2 So Enchanting (8/5)


Race 3:#6 Wicksters Dream (5/2)


Race 4:#7 Capital Structure (3/1)


Race 5:#2 Milestone Payment (7/2)


Race 6:#10 Economic Policy (2/1)


Race 7:#4 Kitten’s Romance (6/1)


Race 8:#7 Pete’s Play Call (7/2)


Race 9:#1 Mitchell Road (9/2)


Race 10:#5 Fresco (2/1)

Churchill

Race 1:#4 Big Union (7/2)


Race 2:#8 Army Wife (5/2)


Race 3:#8 Wild Combo (5/2)


Race 4:#5 Spicy Marg (8/5)


Race 5:#7 Ultimate Badger (5/2)


Race 6:#4 Easy Silence (10/1)


Race 7:#7 Miss Adeline (7/2)


Race 8:#5 Eucharist (5/1)


Race 9:#1 Race Craft (3/1)


Race 10:#8 Coach (3/1)


Race 11:#3 Big Lake (3/1)

Golden Gate

Race 1:#5 Early Riser (7/5)


Race 2:#1 A Little Bit Lucky (8/1)


Race 3:#6 Cimpl Man (5/2)


Race 4:#5 Father O’Flaherty (5/2)


Race 5:#1 U. S. Danger (9/5)


Race 6:#1 Exhalting (1/1)


Race 7:#6 Gallant Guy (3/1)


Race 8:#4 Lucas McCain (8/5)


Race 9:#8 Lotsa Pepper (5/2)


Race 10:#7 Moogie Cat (6/1)

Gulfstream

Race 1:#9 Star Weaver (7/2)


Race 2:#2 Pandorica (7/2)


Race 3:#7 Mystical Moon (12/1)


Race 4:#7 Janet B Doesit All (7/2)


Race 5:#1 My Little Minx (2/1)


Race 6:#6 Dillon Rocks (2/1)


Race 7:#1 Talkthetalk (4/1)


Race 8:#1 Don’t Get Khozy (3/1)


Race 9:#3 Speed Franco (3/1)

Hawthorne

Race 1:#2 Classofsixtynine (5/1)


Race 2:#2 Driver Dan (2/1)


Race 3:#6 Antrim’s Giant (4/1)


Race 4:#6 Fixico (3/5)


Race 5:#3 Wise Khozan (4/1)


Race 6:#8 Mark of the Z (6/1)


Race 7:#4 Trappe Valley (3/1)


Race 8:#8 Brechin’s Command (5/2)

Laurel

Race 1:#5 Silent Malice (8/5)


Race 2:#3 Keeper in Spite (7/2)


Race 3:#9 Market Cap (8/5)


Race 4:#7 Shane’s Jewel (3/1)


Race 5:#13 Great Camanoe (6/1)


Race 6:#8 Booyakasha (7/2)


Race 7:#8 On the Town (7/2)


Race 8:#9 Cassey’s Girl (8/5)

Lone Star

Race 1:#10 Bigtime Chickie (5/2)


Race 2:#2B AA RICH WHISKEY (8/1)


Race 3:#8 Royal Renegade (7/5)


Race 4:#5 Grandbovet (5/2)


Race 5:#5 Seb Ember (3/1)


Race 6:#8 Flight to La Jolla (5/1)


Race 7:#1 Echoes of Thunder (7/2)


Race 8:#3 Apollitical Jazz (10/1)


Race 9:#12 Eysa Jess Jumpn (2/1)


Race 10:#10 Southard Queen (5/2)


Race 11:#4 One Gold Eagle V (3/1)

Mountaineer

Race 1:#10 Stylish Ninetynine (5/2)


Race 2:#2 Little Christy (2/1)


Race 3:#5 Eye Have Candy (2/1)


Race 4:#2 Rhapsodies Sign (3/1)


Race 5:#3 Epic West (6/5)


Race 6:#6 Artavia (8/1)


Race 7:#8 Golden Star Lady (8/5)


Race 8:#3 Shy Guy (9/5)


Race 9:#1 K’s Machen Em (7/5)

Santa Anita

Race 1:#6 Push Through (6/1)


Race 2:#9 Squalotoro (3/1)


Race 3:#4 Unicorn (7/2)


Race 4:#5 Jan’s Reserve (5/1)


Race 5:#4 Murad Khan (5/2)


Race 6:#5 Destiny’s Journey (3/1)


Race 7:#5 Rose Dunn (5/1)


Race 8:#7 La Aguililla (5/1)


Race 9:#3 Raymundos Secret (9/5)


Race 10:#7 Appreciated (5/2)


Race 11:#5 Wind and Hope (4/1)

Will Rogers

Race 1:#7 Sheza Just Zoomin (2/1)


Race 2:#8 She Be Poppin (6/1)


Race 3:#4 Kiss Me Suzy (7/5)


Race 4:#1 Paint Me Tres (9/5)


Race 5:#6 Eva the Diva (2/1)


Race 6:#4 Kissmet (7/5)


Race 7:#5 First Lucy Lark (2/1)


Race 8:#2 Cindydoesitagain (7/5)


Race 9:#2 Eye Work for You (6/5)


Race 10:#6 Quorumm (3/1)


Race 11:#6 Seven (1/1)


Race 12:#2 If Im Lyin Im Dyin (6/5)

Woodbine

Race 1:#4 Lenny K (2/1)


Race 2:#4 Carmenootz (6/1)


Race 3:#6 King of the Ring (3/1)


Race 4:#4 Barilko (3/1)


Race 5:#5 Ron’s Gizmo (10/1)


Race 6:#10 Reconfigure (7/2)


Race 7:#1 Striking Moon (3/1)


Race 8:#5 Merveilleux (5/1)


Race 9:#10 Rosa’s Soul (4/1)


Race 10:#12 Fifth Season (8/1)


Race 11:#12 Risetothechallenge (3/1)

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 So Darn Hot Stalker was in too tough last time in the G2 but looked good breaking her maiden here, and there's a chance she gets overlooked on board; can surprise.
#2 Mrs. Danvers Underachiever loves running 2nd at short odds, and while she's best on paper, the margin is slim, and she will be way overbet, as always; second-best, again.
#1 Say Moi Fellow underlay hasn't fire in two straight, so why she's 8-5 is a guess, and there's no reason to take twice that, let alone even shorter; just not seeing it.
Race Summary The 7-2 ML on the pick seems like a lot of value, especially when you view her in lieu of her two biggest rivals, so play her aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by using her to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since there's a chance the public will key on the two inside gals, even though they have some real knocks to them.

Belmont Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#6 Crystalle Stretch runner has some class to her and certainly needed her comeback, so off that tightener she has every reason to improve open lengths here; look out.
#7 Capital Structure Lightly raced miss was a good 3rd for Brown while tackling winners here last month, which should set her up nicely now that she knows what it takes; big chance.
#1 Windfall Profit The chalk was a close 4th taking on winners and did well to draw inside, though she's going to be overbet, with little margin for error as well; capable, but no lock.
Race Summary That 9-2 ML on the pick seems like a lot of value, as she has the most upside of anyone here, and should only build on her comeback, so play her in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she hinted at big things at 2, and might now finally be able to deliver at 3.

Belmont Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Last Judgement Stretch runner catches a group with plenty of speed to set him up, and the 5th last time was against a very good group; mows them all down late.
#7 Pete's Play Call Stalker did well to draw outside all of the speed, as there's plenty here, though chasing wide might catch up to him in the lane; still, looks a must-use.
#4 High Velocity Tricky read didn't fire off the long break and trainer change but now cuts back, which should have him sitting just off all the speed; eligible to rebound.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here, and that should really help the chances of the 1, who is as good as anyone here anyway, so play him aggressive to win and place, while getting some added value by singling him in the late Pk4/Pk4, as he looks to be getting all the best of it in here.

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 10/25/20

October 25, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Bud Knight; 3-Table for Ten

View Video Analysis

Forecast: Table for Ten is steadily improving, and while he lacks a true turn of foot his late-running, grinding style should be well-suited for this mile and one-quarter turf distance. F. Prat stays aboard and will have him within range from the head of the lane to the wire. Bud Knight is similar to our top pick in that he doesn’t blast home but instead usually produces a steady late bid. He’s another that may truly appreciated today’s longer trip. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Table for Ten on top.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-With Due Cause; 7-Acting Cat

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Forecast: Acting Cat shows up in a maiden claimer for the first time and appears to have found his friends. The Tale of the Cat gelding also will be making his dirt debut, and after a nice recent blowout over the main track he appears capable of handling the switch in surface against this modest group. Gate-to-wire tactics surely will be employed. With Due Cause drops to the bottom and should be capable of producing some type of late kick. Usually sluggish from the gate but with speed figures that make him a fit in this league, the son of Creative Cause might find this abbreviated sprint trip a bit sharp but nonetheless is worth tossing in as a saver or a back-up.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Awesome Drive; 6-Hollywood Girl

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Forecast: Hollywood Girl closed relentlessly off slow fractions to just miss in a similar first-level allowance turf affair in August at Del Mar while earning a career top speed figure and today gets nine furlongs to work. The Giant’s Causeway filly retains M. Smith, and while the pace scenario looks soft she should enjoy clear sailing and every chance in the six-runner affair. Awesome Drive, an ex-maiden claimer, continued her improving pattern when a strong third in a fast miler last month. She’s another with a decent late kick that should be effective at this mile and one-eighth journey. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Hollywood Girl on top.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 1-Mon Camo

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Forecast: Bay Area shipper Mon Camo drops well below his claim level for a high percentage outfit, returns to what might be his preferred surface (dirt) and brings with him speed figures that are better than par for this $12,500 claiming level. The barn’s “go-to” rider A. Cedillo picks up the mount and should have this veteran gelding within striking range throughout with a ground-saving trip. Several of these exit the race that Black Storm won and they’re hard to separate, so let’s take a stand and single ‘Camo and use him in the win pool at or near his morning line of 4-1.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-One Bad Boy; 4-Murad Khan

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Forecast: Last year’s Queen’s Plate winner One Bad Boy was given a run in his first ssteart off a long layoff when facing a similar field at Del Mar in late August, but with regular rider F. Prat back aboard today we’re expecting a much more serious effort from the R. Baltas-trained son of Twirling Candy. Always most comfortable when on or near the lead but inexplicably allowed to drop far off the pace last time out, the 4-year-old ridgling seems certain to be in the first flight throughout and then have his chance to exert his superiority when the pressure is turned on. Though the main push goes to One Bad Boy, you may want to have a ticket or two that also includes Murad Khan, a genuine, consistent, and prototype turf miler with a solid late kick.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: C
Use: 2-Desert Smoke; 5-Destiny’s Journey

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Forecast: We’ll use the two listed above in our rolling exotics but in a chaotic affair that could be won by any of the nine entrants, the best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Destiny’s Journey seeks her third straight score but was a voided claim for $16,000 in her victory more than two months ago and today shows up in a $10,000 event, hardly a healthy pattern. Additionally, the S. Knapp-trained filly is a need-the-lead type, but with the presence of speedy Desert Smoke drawn inside she may be related to a stalker’s role. She can win, but she can lose, too. ‘Smoke has won over this main track in the past, has numbers up north that make her dangerous and picks up F. Prat. In a field in which the closers are suspect, she might make the running and get very brave. There are lots of question marks in this race, so tread lightly.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Concise Advice; 7-Dr Wysong

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Forecast: Concise Advice walked out of the gate and never had much chance in her first start in more than a year at Del Mar in August, so let’s draw a line through that race and give her another chance in this first-level allowance grass sprint for fillies and mares. The daughter of Slew’s Tiznow had won her debut sprinting on grass as a 2-year-old so she does have ability, and recent workouts indicate the M. Puype-trained filly is set to show her best stuff. There’s good value at 8-1 on the morning line both in the win pool and in the rolling exotics. Dr Wysong, first off the claim for high percentage trainer I. Tamayo (a sensational 34% with this angle) has a good closing kick and will be rolling late over a course and distance that promotes her style. With room to rally and a decent pace to chase the daughter of Cyclotron will be heard from late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll press with extra tickets keying Concise Advice on top.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Rain Diva; 3-Time for Ebby

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Forecast: Rain Diva got loose on the lead and crushed a softer group of restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimers over this track and distance earlier this month, and if she can turn in two alike the M. Glatt-trained filly can be dangerous right back despite the class hike. The race lacks speed, so if the daughter of Temple City breaks running from the rail and can clear early she may never look back. Time for Ebby has five prior victories of the Santa Anita main track and may be the best of the closers. She’s back on the main track, gets an extra half-furlong to work with, and will be a threat if the pace flow cooperates. Preference on top goes to Rain Diva but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Maxim Rate; 3-Raymundos Secret

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Forecast: Raymundos Secret managed to win the Mabee S.-G2 in gate-to-wire fashion in her last start, though she barely found enough late energy to hang on at a mile and one-eighth. She’s much more comfortable at today’s mile trip (she’s 4-for-5), so given the projected pace flow the P. D’Amato-trained daughter of Treasure Beach should be capable of grabbing control early and then staying on throughout. Maxim Rate, a strong runner-up in the Rodeo Drive S.-G1 at a mile and one-quarter last month, is dangerous at any distance but can be especially difficult to beat over a flat mile on grass, having won three of her six starts at this trip. She’s certain to draft into a comfortable second flight, stalking position and then have dead aim on Raymundos Secret from the top of the stretch to the wire. We’ll give ‘Secret a slight edge on top but truthfully they’re very difficult to separate and both must be used in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+ (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Single: 3-Jamming Eddy

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Forecast: Jamming Eddy seeks his third straight win, and while he’s returning to dirt after a pair of sharp victories on grass he’s equally effective on any surface and seems well-placed to extend his streak. The Square Eddie gelding likes to settle in the second flight and blast home, and with regular rider F. Prat staying aboard the P. Miller-trained Cal-bred should find a proper early position and then build from there. At 2-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic play.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 9: Post 5:15 PT Grade: B-
Use: 10-Sing in the Wind; 2-Legalito; 8-Lotsa Pepper

Forecast: Sing in the Wind is most effective as a late-running sprinter and in a race that should have faster-than-par early fractions the veteran mare seems likely to have every opportunity to settle early and produce the last run. Legalita won at first asking with a decent speed figure earlier this month and should be competitive on the raise. The daughter of Gotham City likely will be outrun early but the projected quicker-than-par early pace should complement her style, so at 8-1 on the morning there may be good value to be found. Lotsa Pepper is unbeaten in two starts and has rising speed figures, but both of her victories came over five furlongs on turf and today she’ll need to carry her zip three-quarters on the all-weather surface.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B- (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 2-This Tea; 4-Disappearing Act

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Forecast: This Tea has rising speed figures and a pedigree that strongly suggests she’ll improve considerably as the distances increase. The daughter of Curlin is drawn comfortably inside, adds blinkers for the first time, switches to F. Prat, and catches a modest field of older maiden fillies and mares. We’ll put her strongly on top but as a back-up include Disappearing Act on our rolling exotic tickets. As a daughter of Magician she’s bred to love this 10-furlong trip and with improving form and a steady, grinding late kick she’s likely to make her presence felt in the final quarter mile.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 10: Post 5:45 PT Grade: B
Single: 4-Blue Jays

Forecast: Blue Jays, away for almost 11 months, returns in a winnable spot following a series of good workouts at Santa Anita that should have him fit and ready. The K. Desormeaux-trained colt is facing considerably easier company than he saw in his first two starts and we’re expecting the son of Street Sense to take full advantage of the opportunity. At 9/2 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #2
Picks Notes
#7 Acting Cat Have thought a bit more of this guy than his price has suggested through two starts, and now he gets some significant class relief. Graduates here.
#4 Wild Cat Canyon He has had 15 starts, so there are no excuses left, but he has some forward ability that might allow him to stick around for a share in a soft spot.
#1 With Due Cause Drops in for the lowest level yet, but he hasn't shown a whole lot along the way with better. Still, this is a weak spot, and he could land this.
Race Summary Acting Cat showed some pace last time out and now drops sharply while trying the main track. He should be able to flash a bit of speed and wire these.

Santa Anita - Race #5
Picks Notes
#2 Majestic Eagle Has been in with some pretty tough groups over the last year or so, and the price should still be right on the drop out of GII company.
#6 The Black Album That Golden Gate try was a disappointment, but he's capable of something much better than that and should offer a fair price to see if he can bring that today.
#3 One Bad Boy Second start off the long layoff, and he can probably flash a bit better pace this time around. Classy guy has a big chance.
Race Summary Majestic Eagle is worth a look at a square price as he drops in class for this one out of a really decent effort behind BC-bound Mo Forza.

Santa Anita - Race #9
Picks Notes
#6 Silberpfeil Makes the first North American start for a team that does some good work with longshots in this kind of company. She earned a Group III placing last time out and might be a good fit here.
#2 Maxim Rate Tactical type was simply second best last out in Grade I company, and she should be able to get another good trip near the top with these.
#3 Raymundos Secret Forward player handled the hike into Grade II company last time out, and she figures tough right back with this group. Capable underlay?
Race Summary Silberpfeil is worth a price look for a team that connects with longshot players in tough spots from time to time, and while she's meeting some horses with recent success, this isn't too deep a spot for the level.

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park West - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 Remember the Maine Didn't fire in a race that came off the turf and has races at this level that would make him tough here.
#8 Can't Trump Kitten Drops in class off a 4th-place finish and seeks a return to top form; late player.
#9 National Honor Was up in time for a higher price at Parx and won a race at GP in March; makes his second off a layoff.
Race Summary Remember the Maine can close ground on the turf and his last one is a throw-out due to switch in surfaces; will be overlooked in the wagering and his best can put him in the hunt.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Don't Get Khozy Made a good run for second last time out and does her best from off the pace; can save ground and this pace and distance should be right for her.
#7 Tiz Possible Dear Won two straight and then finished sixth in the slop at a higher level; has be close throughout.
#4 Worth Avenue Rallied mildly to fourth last time after two straight wins; game mare is usually a factor when she fires her best shot.
Race Summary Don't Get Khozy should get a good trip jus toff the pace and she only attempt at this distance produced an easy win.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Speed Franco Goes for his third straight win and has found a home going two turns on turf; his last two wins were in each fashion and he was claimed by Catanese last out.
#6 Donji Ran on for third against similar last out and a good pace will help him out in his late run; hasn't won since may but has shown interest in most of his races for this price.
#9 Sir Seamus Loves it on the front end and until a fourth last time won three straight; could dictate the pace.
Race Summary Speed Franco has been very good recently and doesn't do much wrong at this level; capable of extending his streak.