The Covid 19 factor has really messed with my model, both in terms of the minimization of “home team advantage”, and the hyper frustrating schedule changes.na I can barely keep up with. This will mean that, as much as I try to post projections as early in the day of each game , last minute game postponements will often end up delaying my daily post. I’ll try to make these daily posts as quickly as I can, but I’m a one man band and old as dirt, so you’ll get what you get, when you get it.
Normally, my NBA model requires at least 2 months of data, after which I post around 2 months of fairly reliable projections, but given the weird scheduling this season, I’ve brought things forward a few weeks. I usually continue to post until the metrics used to determine reliability drop into the red, but it is my expectation that the model will begin in the red and edge into the green, before its ultimate collapse – but anything can happen.
A reminder worth reminding again: The Limper doesn’t make “predictions”, it takes past performance data and matchup variables to project game winners and margins of victory (MOV); and should only be used as a guide for the bettor to make his own “predictions”. Also, although I post likely ATS picks, based on the projected MOV and “current” Vegas line, as the line changes, so might the pick, and it is the Vegas Insider consensus closing line the model uses to determine its “final ATS pick”, for grading purposes. Finally, I’ll post the standings record below only once at the beginning of each week for reference.
GLTA, and – we’re off!