Wednesday MLB Sharp Report
1:07 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (5-6) at Toronto Blue Jays (5-6)
These AL East rivals have split the first two games of the series, with the Yankees winning the opener 3-1 as -190 favorites and the Jays winning Tuesday night 7-3 as -110 favorites. In today's early afternoon rubber match, the Yankees start veteran Corey Kluber (0-1, 5.68 ERA) while the Jays counter with righty Ross Stripling (0-1, 7.56 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a short -120 road favorite. We've seen sharps steam the Yankees, driving this line up to New York -130. So far this season, teams with steam of 10-cents or more in their favor are 43-34 (56%) with a nearly 10% ROI. Pros also seem to be leaning on the under. The total is a high 10.5 but the under is juiced to -115 or -120 depending on the shop. Divisional unders are 52-44 (54%) this season. The wind is expected to be blowing in from right at 10 MPH, which could benefit the under. Both of these teams have been profitable to the under this season, going 7-4.
7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (6-5) at New York Mets (4-3)
The Mets swept the Phillies in yesterday's doubleheader, winning 4-3 as -148 favorites in the first game and then winning 4-0 as + 108 dogs in the second game. In tonight's rematch, the Phillies send out righty Zack Wheeler (1-1, 2.31 ERA) while the Mets give the ball to lefty David Peterson (0-1, 13.50 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a short -125 road favorite. The public sees a glaring pitching advantage for the Phillies and has promptly pounded Philadelphia laying the chalk. However, despite this lopsided support, we've seen the Phillies fall from -125 to -115. Some shops are inching closer to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Mets (+ 115 to + 105), with pros riding the hot hand getting plus money at home. New York matches several profitable betting systems this season, including a divisional dog, a dog off a win and a dog with a line move in their favor. The Mets are 3-1 at home this season. The Phillies are just 1-4 on the road.
7:20 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (4-6) at Atlanta Braves (4-7)
The Marlins have shocked the Braves so far in this series, winning the first two games 5-3 as + 125 dogs and 14-8 as + 150 dogs. In tonight's third game of the four-game set, the Marlins trot out Nick Neidert (0-0, 2.08 ERA) while the Braves start veteran Charlie Morton (1-1, 3.27 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a hefty -195 home favorite. Wiseguys seem to like Atlanta to bounce back with a victory as we've seen the Braves get steamed up from -195 to -230. Teams with big steam of 20-cents or more in their favor are 16-8 (67%) this season. Big favorites -200 or more are 12-5 (71%). Big home favorites -200 or more are 8-3 (73%). The total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115. Divisional unders are 52-44 (54%) on the season. The Braves are 6-4-1 to the over this season. The Marlins are 5-3-2 to the under.