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UFC 266
#565327 09/22/21 03:49 AM
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Kyle Marley

Alexander Volkanovski (-155) vs. Brian Ortega (+135): Volkanovski by decision

Ortega looked amazing in his last fight and that is why the odds are so close. If that fight never happened, he would have been +300 or so Saturday. I think Volkanovski is the more powerful striker with higher output, and I would expect him to be the one pushing the pace. He is also the better wrestler, but he should keep it on the feet because Ortega is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the sport. Ortega is live for a submission but I will lean with Volkanovski to win three or four rounds.

Valentina Shevchenko (-1,600) vs. Lauren Murphy (+900): Shevchenko inside the distance

The only way Murphy wins is if she gets a flash finish. Shevchenko is levels ahead of her anywhere this fight goes, and I don't see how Murphy wins a minute. She has power so maybe she can get a lucky knockout. I doubt it, and I think Shevchenko dominates from the opening bell.

Nick Diaz (-110) vs. Robbie Lawler (-110): Diaz by decision

Diaz is making his long-awaited return and we are getting a rematch from 2004 in which he knocked out Lawler in the second round. Now he is 38 and Lawler is 39. There is no telling what this fight will look like, but I believe Diaz will be the fighter with the higher pace, the better cardio and the better ground game. Lawler has more power, but he was stopped the first time and he looked really bad in his last fight. I am going to side with Diaz.

Curtis Blaydes (-300) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+250): Blaydes by TKO

If Rozenstruik doesn't get the KO, he is going to get mauled and he has nothing to offer off his back. Blaydes was in the same situation in his last fight and got stopped by Derrick Lewis, so hopefully he fights smarter this time. I am picking Blaydes to get a ground-and-pound finish.

Jessica Andrade (-270) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (+230): Andrade by decision

Calvillo is a good grappler, and she is live for a submission if she can get the fight to the mat. I think Andrade has good-enough takedown defense to keep this standing and she is the much better striker with a lot more power. I could see Andrade getting a TKO, but I am going to take her to win all three rounds on the scorecards.

Marlon Moraes (+220) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (-260): Dvalishvili by TKO

Moraes is the better striker, but I think he has to get a knockout to win because he can't keep up with Dvalishvili's pace. I think Dvalishvili does what he does best andlands takedown after takedown. I don't even know if Moraes has the gas tank to hang for three rounds, so I will take Dvalishvili to get his first finish in the UFC.

Dan Hooker (-160) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (+140): Haqparast by decision

Haqparast is a good striker and I expect this to be a striking fight. He has a high pace and he has power. He has good striking defense as well. However, both fighters are having last-minute travel issues, so proceed with caution provided this bout actually takes place.

Shamil Abdurakhimov (+165) vs.na (-185): Daukaus by TKO

Abdurakhimov is the more experienced fighter, but that is the only real edge I can give him at age 40.na should be the better striker and he is much faster and will be throwing more volume. I think he gets a knockout, but he can also get a clear decision win if it goes the distance.

Talia Santos (-370) vs. Roxanne Modafferi (+310): Santos by TKO

Modafferi has a path to victory if she can grind out two rounds with her heavy top-control game. I just don't think she is going to have success with takedowns, and she likely gets dominated in the striking game. Santos can also do a lot of damage in top control if she wants to take that route. I think Santos gets a finish and I expect the line to move in her direction.

Uros Medic (-125) vs. Jalin Turner (+105): Turner by TKO

Medic has a 7-0 record, and he has never even been past the 6-minute mark in a fight. He is an aggressive fighter with power in his punches and kicks. Turner has been TKO'd three times in his career. I think Turner is the better striker and he has eight knockouts. The longer it goes, the more I favor Turner and I am going to pick him.

Karl Roberson (-115) vs. Nick Maximov (-105): Roberson by TKO

Maximov is making his UFC debut with a 6-0 record after jumping up two weight classes on "Contender Series" and getting an easy win. Roberson is the much better striker, but Maximov is a wrestler-grappler who isn't going to want to spend much time on the feet. I think he can have early success with takedowns, but I expect him to slow down. I will take Roberson to get a TKO.

Matthew Semelsberger (-475) vs. Martin Sano (+380): Semelsberger by TKO

I'm not sure how Sano got this UFC opportunity. He hasn't fought since 2017 and he hasn't won since 2014. He looked sloppy on the feet, and I don't see how he wins other than a knockout or a flash submission. He has a win over prospect Geoff Neal in his first pro fight. Semelsberger is better everywhere and I think he knocks him out in Round 1.

Omar Morales (-150) vs. Jonathan Pearce (+130): Pearce by decision

I think Morales is the better striker, while Pearce is more likely to look for takedowns. I like Pearce in top control, but I don't think it will be easy to get Morales down consistently. His striking defense has looked like a serious concern. But he is young and I expect him to improve, whereas I think we know what we are getting with Morales.

Manon Fiorot (-260) vs. Mayra Beuno Silva (+220): Fiorot by decision

I am going to pick Fiorot to get the win because I expect this to be a striking match and her striking is superior. Silva is a solid striker herself and I expect this fight to be much harder than Fiorot's first two UFC matches. Both women hit hard, and either could be live for a knockout. I think we get a close 15-minute fight, and Fiorot should win more times than she loses it.


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Re: UFC 266
FREAK #565499 09/22/21 04:30 PM
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Reed Kuhn

Heavyweights: Curtis Blaydes (-300) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+ 250)

It doesn’t get more “striker vs. grappler” than this top-10 heavyweight pairing on the main card in Las Vegas. The No. 4-ranked Blaydes wrestles early and often, while the No. 6-ranked Rozenstruik has yet to even attempt a takedown in his UFC career, let alone land one. The stats confirm their stylistic backgrounds. Blaydes, a decorated wrestler, has spent 45 percent of his octagon time on the mat dominating opponents. Rozenstruik, with a lengthy kickboxing career, has finished nearly every one of his MMA wins by strikes and avoids the ground at all costs.

We’ll learn a lot in the first few minutes of the fight when Blaydes mounts his wrestling offense. It’s either Rozenstruik by TKO or Blaydes by decision or a late finish. The correlated outcomes make prop-hunting this matchup more profitable.

Historically, we favor the wrestler in matchups such as these, but the Over 1.5 rounds presents an interesting opportunity to back the wrestler at a far more reasonable price while also protecting against a surprise underdog haymaker in the later rounds. The numbers like Blaydes to wrestle his way to victory. To do so, he’ll need to close the distance and weather the precise, powerful strikes of Rozenstruik at the start of each round. Expect him to clinch first to set up his takedowns.

Moneyline play on Blaydes, and mix him with Valentina Shevchenko for a better return. Over 1.5 rounds. Depending on how big you go, a tiny hedge on Rozenstruik by TKO or in Round 1 will offer long odds.

Co-main event: Valentina Shevchenko (-1200) vs. Lauren Murphy (+ 800)

When you see a 10-1 champion favorite or more in a title fight, the question usually boils down to whether the challenger offers some superlative threat that could lead to an upset. In this case, Murphy has cardio, well-rounded skills and tons of heart, even in defeat. But her stat line doesn’t offer a significant finishing threat.

In general, Shevchenko has advantages on the feet and on the ground, and she has five-round experience against elite opponents to keep her sharp. Ultimately, there’s no real path to victory for the challenger unless an injury alters the fight. That’s not something we can bank on.

Use Shevchenko in parlays, and consider the Over 1.5 rounds to trust Murphy puts up a good fight early.

Main event: Alexander Volkanovski (-165) vs. Brian Ortega (+ 130)

This title fight is the final matchup of the night and will be one of the most evenly matched. Volkanovski has the distance striking advantage, combined with competent wrestling. Though Ortega has an impressive highlight reel of submissions, he doesn’t use offensive wrestling especially well.

If Volkanovski fights to his strengths, we should expect him to dictate the location of the fight. He’ll get the better of the stand-up striking exchanges and should accumulate more damage scored through the rounds. Ortega hasn’t proven he can stand with the best strikers in MMA like the champ has.

Mild lean toward Volkanovski as long as his price stays reasonable. Over 2.5 rounds.

Bonus pick: Robbie Lawler (-115) vs. Nick Diaz (-105)

Both are likely past their peaks, but that could favor Diaz in their rematch. Lawler has taken a lot of damage in his time, while Diaz has been taking time off running triathlons. Diaz averages twice the striking output of Lawler, who has been hesitant looking for a big counter throughout his career.

Diaz can fight long with high-pressure striking and knows he’ll have a huge grappling advantage should the fight hit the ground. He also knows how to stay out of danger against elite opponents, assuming his ring rust doesn’t burn him. The stats might be stale after such a long layoff, but at even or underdog odds, Diaz seems the better play. Moneyline lean on Diaz.


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