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Circa Survivor
#577603 11/16/21 11:21 PM
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Some of you may have heard me talk about the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas.

It started with 4,080 entrants and after week 10 is down to only 173 entrants.

The way the contest works is you pick one team each week to win (no point spread) once you use the team, you can’t use them again.

The added twist to the contest is that they treat Thanksgiving Day as a separate week and the Thursday game before Christmas and the Christmas Day games as a week. So instead of needing 18 winners, you need 20.

These were my picks:

W1 - DEN
W2 - CLV
W3 - CAR
W4 - CIN
W5 - MN
W6 - KC
W7 - NE
W8 - LAR
W9 - BAL
W10 - IND

The teams I have left to use are:

AZ, ATL, BUF, CHI, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, JAX, LVR, LAC, MIA, NO, NYJ, NYG, PHI, PIT, SF,SEA,TB, TN, WAS

Keep in mind that I have to save teams for Thanksgiving and Christmas

Thanksgiving games are CHI/DET - LVR/DAL - BUF/NO
Christmas games are: SF/TN - CLV/GB - IND/AZ

I have all Thanksgiving teams at my disposal right now and for Christmas I have SF, TN, GB, AZ

Here comes week 11 and when it starts to get tough. Remember lose once and you’re out.

Tennessee is the obvious pick but I want to save them to have them available at Christmas if at all possible.

I know for certain that 172 of the 173 left have Tennessee available to them as well. It will be a popular choice this week as it should be.

What’s your play for week 11?

On a side note, I ended up for third in the William Hill College Football Contest in Las Vegas. I ended up 50-30 against the spread. The co-winners won with a 51-29 record. They won $325K each, I won nearly $67K. A huge dropoff to say the least but there is no shame on my part. It’s a very difficult contest and I’ll be back to take them on next year. First thing first, I want to get this 6 million. It’s not every week you get a 1 in 173 opportunity to strike the gold !!


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Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #577670 11/17/21 04:18 AM
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You're right that most people will be taking the Titans to win. If they happen to lose, and you got another team that wins, you'll be sitting pretty nice with the teams left probably around 30 or so.

If you want to go different from the pack and they take the Titans, maybe the Bucs are the way to go. The back to back loses are worrisome on top of the bye week but coach Arians saying they are a stupid team should motivate them to be ready.

Wow, great job cashing in that $67k man. Yeah there's a drop off but a definitely a nice haul. Great job!

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Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #577673 11/17/21 04:40 AM
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The way I look at it now is that I'm half way home at the very least and I have a grouping of teams that can get me there and I'm going to need some luck the rest of the way.

Top Tier (Good Teams Left)

AZ, BUF, DAL, GB, TB, TN

Mid Tier (Decent Teams)

LVR, LAC, NO, SEA

Lower Tier (Really Don't Trust)

ATL, PHI, PIT, SF, WAS

Bottom Tier (No way in hell do I want to count on them)

CHI, DET, HOU, JAX, MIA, NYJ, NYG,

This list can change from week to week based on teams used and situational type things.


Post your picks daily in Bet The House !!

Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #577675 11/17/21 04:59 AM
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Never take Jets. Coming from Jets fan

Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #577744 11/17/21 05:14 PM
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Good luck Freak, hope you can win this contest.
I would take Tampa Bay this week.

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Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #577792 11/17/21 11:14 PM
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I've been working on this and as I did before the season started I mapped out the rest of the season. Before the season started I mapped out a game plan and plan B for the whole season but I made some adjustments as I've gone along and it has paid off.

When I look at the remaining weeks schedule this is my thought process:

W11 - TN, TB , LAC
W12 - Thanksgiving Day - DAL, BUF
W13 - SF, ATL, MIA
W14 - BUF, TB, PHI
W15 - NO, TN
W16 - BUF, MIA, JAX
W17 - Thursday and Christmas Day - GB, AZ
W18 - NYJ, LAC, NO, BUF
W19 - BUF, TN, TB, SF, SEA
W20 - BUF, GB, TB, TN

As I take one of the teams in the list, then the choices later on shrink. It's just a matter of getting in a position to make the best play possible and use the equity I built up the first half of the season to pay off on the back end.


Post your picks daily in Bet The House !!

Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #577798 11/17/21 11:44 PM
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I AM GOOD FRIENDS WITH THOSE GUYS THERE FOLLOW THE MONEY RADIO SHOW AND MIKE PALM ALONG WITH DEREK GOOD LUCL WAS THERE HALLOWEEN WEEKEND AWESOME TIME .

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Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #577807 11/18/21 12:30 AM
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Based on your mapping of the remaining weeks, I agree that TB would be the logical choice this week. Painful loses, big egos, stacked with talent, and the need to right the ship.
Good luck, and thank you for all you do for all of us!

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Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #577850 11/18/21 07:11 AM
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Originally Posted by FREAK
I've been working on this and as I did before the season started I mapped out the rest of the season. Before the season started I mapped out a game plan and plan B for the whole season but I made some adjustments as I've gone along and it has paid off.

When I look at the remaining weeks schedule this is my thought process:

W11 - TN, TB , LAC
W12 - Thanksgiving Day - DAL, BUF
W13 - SF, ATL, MIA
W14 - BUF, TB, PHI
W15 - NO, TN
W16 - BUF, MIA, JAX
W17 - Thursday and Christmas Day - GB, AZ
W18 - NYJ, LAC, NO, BUF
W19 - BUF, TN, TB, SF, SEA
W20 - BUF, GB, TB, TN

As I take one of the teams in the list, then the choices later on shrink. It's just a matter of getting in a position to make the best play possible and use the equity I built up the first half of the season to pay off on the back end.
Pretty cool how you mapped it out BEFORE the season started. Most guys just go week to week. And it's paid off for you so far. Hope you continue to win Freak.

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Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #578349 11/20/21 05:36 PM
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Freak it looks like you have things under control and I agree with Raiders that I would think a lot would be going week to week.

Looking forward to seeing you take this week and will be monitoring.

Good Luck

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Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #578372 11/21/21 12:00 AM
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The pick that was placed for this week is Tampa Bay on Monday Night.


Post your picks daily in Bet The House !!

Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #578785 11/22/21 10:34 PM
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Good Luck FREAK

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Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #578840 11/23/21 05:22 AM
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TB gets the job done and I advance to Thanksgiving Day games.

39 more eliminated in Week 11 bringing the total down to 134 remaining.

W1 - DEN
W2 - CLV
W3 - CAR
W4 - CIN
W5 - MN
W6 - KC
W7 - NE
W8 - LAR
W9 - BAL
W10 - IND
W11 - TB

The teams I have left to use are:

AZ, ATL, BUF, CHI, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, JAX, LVR, LAC, MIA, NO, NYJ, NYG, PHI, PIT, SF,SEA,TN, WAS


Top Tier (Good Teams Left)

AZ, BUF, DAL, GB, TN

Mid Tier (Decent Teams)

LAC, SF

Lower Tier (Really Don't Trust)

ATL, LVR, NO, PHI, PIT, SEA, WAS

Bottom Tier (No way in hell do I want to count on them)

CHI, DET, HOU, JAX, MIA, NYJ, NYG


When I look at the remaining weeks schedule this is my thought process:

W12 - Thanksgiving Day - DAL, BUF
W13 - ATL, HOU, MIA, PHI, SF,
W14 - BUF, PHI
W15 - NO, TN
W16 - BUF, MIA, JAX
W17 - Thursday and Christmas Day - GB, AZ
W18 - NYJ, LAC, NO, BUF
W19 - BUF, TN, SF, SEA
W20 - BUF, GB, TN


Post your picks daily in Bet The House !!

Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #578885 11/23/21 05:31 PM
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This is what I know:

3 people have 3 entries alive
8 people have 2 entries alive

37 of the remaining 134 used both Buffalo/Dallas
68 have used Buffalo but not Dallas
15 have used Dallas but not Buffalo
14 have Buffalo and Dallas of which I am one of those 14


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Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #579065 11/24/21 07:14 PM
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You got this brother, I have reviewed the spreadsheet, and your logic and math are the path to moving ahead. Those are your only two choices for TGing. Review, crosscheck and get the win brother... Wishing you the best of luck!!!

Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #579094 11/24/21 09:38 PM
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This week is pretty tough. Dallas will be without their WR 1 Amari Cooper with Covid and WR2 Ceedee Lamb is questionable. We saw how Dallas was last week when they were out.

If I had to choose between them and Buffalo I probably take Dallas as they're at home.

Good luck to you Freak whoever you take this week.

Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #579209 11/25/21 03:53 PM
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Looking forward to the pick. At least this is better than LeBitches the announcement. corn

Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #579280 11/25/21 05:25 PM
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Dallas is my entry for today. Let's get it home!


Post your picks daily in Bet The House !!

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Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #579283 11/25/21 05:32 PM
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Good Luck FREAK I'm jumping all over the ML. Let's Ride !

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Re: Circa Survivor
FREAK #579289 11/25/21 06:06 PM
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Originally Posted by FREAK
Dallas is my entry for today. Let's get it home!
I'm hoping for an easy no sweat win for you. Good luck man.

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