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NFL 10/5/25

Arizona Cardinals ML, Detroit Lions ML, & Buffalo Bills ML (-129) for 4 units

YTD: 8-2, +18.85 units

(Last Monday - Broncos, -7.5 mostly closed at -7, won 28-3 v Bengals and backup QB. 512-159 yards.)

Onto today’s analysis… am I happy that my wager looks awfully familiar to your Aunt’s (who doesn’t watch much football and happened to go to the casino for the second time this year and felt like making a football bet)? No… no I’m not. It’s crazy because I could try to convince you that a ton of thought went into coming full circle and playing the three biggest chalks on the moneylines (did, promise), but I’m not sure you’d believe me anyway.

Bills -2.5 & AZ -2.5 is -141. That was another play I really was considering. It was very close to the play I made this week… but I could not justify not putting some hard earned money on the Lions to win the game. They’re half of my remaining survivor entries in the bigger casino contest I’m in.. and I truly couldn’t bring myself to play the Colts at home -7 vs the Raiders bc that’s going to be Geno & Coach Pete Carroll’s waterloo and Colts just emptied the tank and were sooo close to beating the Rams last week (fortunately, bc I was on the Rams). I mentioned in an earlier this week convo that Raiders are 40-45% to win outright, in my estimation, that would be Indy -3.5 if this was week 1.

Let’s unpack these one at a time… if you’re playing three teams at -385 or higher and parlaying - my first three team play this year… you better feel awfully confident in the position you’re putting yourself in. And with two -7.5’s and a -10.5… I think Vegas believes they’ll win also. Probably not all three, but who would be dumb enough to do a huge chalk three team parlay? It’s the NFL, anyone can beat anyone. Every piece of every wager is SO HARD to win, so you best feel extremely confident when you put hard earned money on the line.

The Arizona Cardinals. This is actually my favorite of the three in terms of value/likelihood to win, imo. Here’s what I said the other day when discussing this game:

“I do love Arizona. At first I was like
Mehhhh but I thought about it. Cards have had 10 days of “Harrison Jr’s a bust” after ANOTHER really bad and game changing drop against Seattle.. 10 days of going from 2-0 to 2-2… a good home team.. a team that’s good against bad teams… against just a straight up bad team. Titans aren’t there yet. Cam’s not ready to win consistently yet imo. And Kyler NEEDS it. Zig zag on AZ.. on them week 2, no touch week 3, against week 4, back on week 5 perhaps.” I think that quote sums it up pretty well and I’m back on them week 5 indeed. Titans aren’t ready to win at Arizona, I don’t believe, in audition where I believe you’ll get the Cards’ best.

The Detroit Lions. Listen… do I remember what it’s like playing a strong NFC North big chalk on the road against a hapless Ohio based home team? Yes I remember playing Green Bay on the road against Cleveland a couple weeks ago and feeling ugh about it from the jump, even dumber when they lost outright when I said that’s trappy as heck. This is NOT that. The Browns outgained Burrow and the Bengals in week 1 and then in week 2, they were tight against Baltimore all game until it got out of hand with turnovers and piling it on in the second half… Browns had played two tough games and were coming back home after the road at Balt and had a non win game (at Detroit) in week 4. We bet Detroit in week 4. So the Browns were in perfect position for a great effort, Packers were in perfect position for a letdown going to Dallas the following week and my analysis was “Micah chasing down Flacco lol” like cmon.. that was disrespectful to Cle’s amazing defense, anointed Green Bay way too early bc they beat Detroit (who just was bad week 1, throw that away with new coordinators) and Wash at home on a Thursday. Sorry I’m not a Wash to the SB guy and bet against them at least twice last playoffs (v Det and v Philly).

The reason I talk so much about another game is because of all the parallels and so many ppl (even books) are thinking about this game in that way. -10 to -10.5 (mostly) but we have 76% public on Detroit, down a little from 81%, and line isn’t shooting up.. that’s concerning.. but this just comes down to capacity. There are two things I look at every single week - desire and capacity. Does the team desire a win? Cin yes, they got embarrassed twice in a row - Det, sure, but they also play KC next week so some may argue it’s trappy. I’m saying no freaking way bc this current Bengals team does not have the makeup to pull an upset off a team with a good offense. That defense was terrible before they lost Burrow. Browning at QB is not Burrow and remember - they scored 34 vs Jax… so without that win… they’ve averaged 9 PPG the other three games. Did you watch Det/Balt? I did. I thought Lamar looked great.. he’s awesome.. but the Lions looked way way better. That front 7 was ridiculous and they were in the backfield all day. 7 sacks. Browning can only pull an upset with 300 yards passing and a couple TDs… that means he is going to get pass rushed hard… I personally just think this is a capacity thing and after the injuries Detroit had last year and a week 1 egg this year, they will not be caught flat footed. Plus, if I can put half my remaining survivors on these guys, I feel comfortable putting some hard earned money on them too, outside that pool.

The Buffalo Bills. This one is actually the one I am most trepidatious about, but that makes sense bc I’ve been saying that about the Bills when I put hard earned money on them in every game I do so over the last few years. They’re just really good at home, idk I’m not overthinking it. 8-0 LY, 7-2 in ‘23 losing only to Jacksonville (IN LONDON) and to the Broncos on a last min FG where Bills lost turnovers 4-1. In ‘22, they were 7-1 at home and I remember that game they lost to Minny 33-30 in OT and Josh Allen had a butt fumble. They had the game won. Bills were like 90% to win with 2 mins left per (website), that was flukey as heck and they lost turnovers 4-2. Bills at home are just a decent investment. And Patriots? Why was everyone so high on them going into the season like dang.. one coaching change and a lot of the same players and we think they will do way better than last year’s 4-13? They beat Miami barely and clobbered Carolina (42-13) as their two wins. They lost by a TD at home vs Pittsburgh and Vegas. Frankly, none of the four games are that standout-ish to me. Bryce still probably isn’t an NFL level starting QB (which makes me sad bc I like him) so that win isn’t that impressive. Also Carolina outgained them 326-307 and Pats had a punt return TD. I’m just not buying the Pats as a playoff team yet, let alone a team that goes into Buffalo and knocks them down this year. Buffalo is susceptible to upsets… but I’m more inclined to think that’s on the road.

And this is how I get to my first three team play of the year … and maybe the most rudimentary strategic approach of the year… but why I’m also perfectly cool with it.

PS - doing this as three 2 unit plays at -200 ish (for even numbers) each would mean I get a push at 2-1. But at 1-2 or 0-3, this would mean a -12 unit day. The risk/reward just made more sense to me to play the single 4 unit play this week.

Entries Survivor Week 5 (past selections in order):
Team 1: Eliminated week 3 (DEN, BAL, GB)
Team 2: Arizona Cardinals (DEN, BAL, BUF, DET)
Team 3: Detroit Lions (DEN, ARZ, SEA, BUF)
Team 4: Arizona Cardinals (PHI, BAL, BUF, DET)
Team 5: Detroit Lions (PHI, BUF, SEA, DEN)

If I only had one entry (past selections in order): Arizona Cardinals (DEN, BAL, SEA, BUF)

YTD: 8-3, +13.69 units

Lions won by 13, Cardinals lost in one of the most ridiculous statistically painful losses I’ve ever had the good fortune of watching at Buffalo Wild Wings. Up 21-6, RB breaks one for a touchdown and celebrates early for a touchback, spinning the ball. Then during the Titans comeback, the Cards pick off Cam and fumble into their own end zone. Absolutely nuts. But when you do three team parlays with chalks, when they lose - it always feels crazy. Bills play tonight against Pats, doesn’t matter tho - parlay is down for the count bc my favorite value of the three couldn’t hang on outright.

Down to 2 of 5 survivor teams remaining and my “if I only picked one team” was eliminated.

Making my survivor picks early this week - for both remaining entries going with the only double digit chalk. The only team -7.5 or more, in fact, at -13.5. Backing the Packers back at home after a bye with their last two games a heartbreaking loss to Cleveland and a disappointing tie with Dallas. They are playing against Jake Browning and the Cincinnati Bengals. I was correct that Detroit was going to take care of business against them in week 5.

There are no games next weekin that nice -7.5 to -9.5 line range either, so may watch for a week. Traveling, so not planning on diving into this week’s games as much.

Anyway speaking of the last game we don’t want to tilt from, Cards lost that 22-21 and were up 21-19 for a bit at the end.. so btw - my Bills/Cards -2.5 wouldn’t have worked either. NFL Memes lovingly called it “perhaps the most hilarious loss in NFL history.”

Bills ended up going down 20-10, coming back, but losing 23-20 on a late kick. I still believe Bills win that game 7.5+ times out of 10. Uncharacteristic turnovers and lots of penalties early dug them a hole that they weren’t able to get themselves out of. The three team parlay approach at least minimized damage from a poor week of picks. Only 1 of my 7.5+ chalks even won (the -10.5).

Entries Survivor Week 6 (past selections in order) remaining teams:
Team 3: Green Bay Packers (DEN, ARZ, SEA, BUF, DET)
Team 5: Green Bay Packers (PHI, BUF, SEA, DEN, DET)

Team 1: Eliminated Week 3 (DEN, BAL, GB)
Team 2: Eliminated Week 5 (DEN, BAL, BUF, DET, ARZ)
Team 4: Eliminated Week 5 (PHI, BAL, BUF, DET, ARZ)
If I only had one entry (past selections in order): Eliminated Week 5 (DEN, BAL, SEA, BUF, ARZ)

NFL 10/9 & 10/13/25

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 & Buffalo Bills ML (-108) for 3 units

I really did go into this week with every intention of taking it off unless something really jumped out at me.. and I think a tease/parlay of two teams as high quality as the Eagles and Bills could qualify… or I got sucked in to betting two road chalks off medium bad (not bad bad in either case) losses. I’m hoping it’s the former.

You can hit me with - “they’re both road teams” and “Falcons are off a bye and Bills haven’t played anyone good yet (including the Ravens)” but other than that I’m not really sure any argument that can be made that says this isn’t at least worth a wager from my perspective. For the record, my strongest other considerations were both teams on ML around -129, Eagles -2 & Bills ML for -114, Eagles ML & Bills +3 for -180, and Eagles ML & Bills +4 for -200. Interestingly, my pops dug in and shared this stat with me - last week we had one 1 point victory. That means we’re at 6 one point games and only 2 two point games for the year. FWIW. Very intrigued to see what this week teaches me. I know those cushions are very important… but is that -108 more of a sweet spot? Could I be risking less with similar results? Let’s find out. Taking -7.5 to -2.5 isn’t my favorite thing to do and -4.5 road chalks lose all the time - but I think these two can take care of business this week.

Anyhoo. I said they’re both road chalks - yuck - but sometimes that’s where the bet takes us. Let’s look at the home/road splits last year; is either home team particularly dominant at home? Falcons were 4-5 at home LY and Giants were 1-8. I’m not trying to over complicate my play here, just over complicating the execution, as always.

I have always said that weeks 2-7 ish is the absolute sweet spot for this strategy and my Unfair Advantage forum posts. If you review the last two years of data, you’d see that too. So I didn’t want to let a sweet spot play pass me by. If the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles can’t get back on track against Jaxson Dart and the Giants (even on the road) after winning like a million games in a row (other than the Hurts concussion game) and after a 2 hour players meeting/convo with AJ Brown, Hurts, Saquon.. so know they’ll be coming ready … then maybe I’m incorrect about how good they are. But this is a game they *gotta* win. Not “must win,” won’t impact their playoff chances, but they *gotta* win it and if not, in a game/situation like this against this team - then I’ll have to revisit this strategy. Eagles are -7.5. I know it’s a road division game, but Jaxson Dart isn’t all that great and the Giants aren middle of the pack if absolutely everything goes right. I know they have a strong front 7. But if Dart beats Eagles here, it’s a vacuum microcosm of a bigger thing occurring and it means, in my opinion, one of a couple things is happening that will be an absolute mind blower. Either #1, Eagles aren’t good this year and will have a collapse like a couple years ago, #2 rookies are going to come in more viable than ever, or #3 this strategy needs to be reevaluated from week 6 on, which is a much earlier place than most years - and make me question if there is an elite tier of teams and lesser tiers. I know anyone can beat anyone, pretty much anytime, but when the stars are aligned before a bye with a hungry SB Champ Eagles team. For the record I didn’t touch Chargers -6.5 at NYG with a six foot pole and liked the G Men that week, that was a trappy game for Herbert and the Chargers. This is not trappy one bit for the Eagles. This has all the makings of a best effort game.

Moving onto their opponent the Giants.. who beat the Chargers, nice win, and immediately came back to Earth the following week against the Saints. I’m willing to wager that Jaxson and this Giants team are not going to get a dub in the meadowlands this Thursday night on an Amazon national game after the Eagles lost.

The second leg of this play is the Buffalo Bills. The team that lost a tough divisional matchup by 3 with 3 turnovers, in a trappy kind of spot - where they had just played some cupcakes close… that does not mean they now can’t go into a dome and beat a young Penix (who I still am not fully sold on; him at Washington - I’ll never forget his final bowl game watching live and thinking he’s not actually all that great) and this Falcons team off a loss. I would love to also be catching a FG with them here but I made the call that the value was with the ML.

I think the Bills are in that elite tier - they look amazing most of the time and are a dominant team. I think this squad can still go 14-3 and get a 1 seed in the AFC. There’s a reason teams don’t go undefeated very often.. and it’s the nature of the NFL. But that doesn’t mean I should get away completely from betting good teams to win (especially off a loss) against medium level teams (at best, I’m still not fully sold NFC became the better conference overnight) in this kind of strategy.

Falcons coming off a bye is concerning but the Bills are just plain better and I have a cushion just in case it does come down to a final FG. Falcons beat a solid Commanders team - or did they - first, Daniels didn’t start, Mariota did. And second, you guys know my feelings on Wash if you’ve been following for a while - I’m not fully sold yet. That said, Jayden is AMAZING. It’s just going into LY, their defense was supposed to be bottom of the barrel. I think there’s still some issues with depth and bones of the roster, but Jayden can be amazing and that still be true. So, in reality, this is a team that got shut out 30-0 by the Panthers. Like I get it - quicksand lets games get out of hand and the score can get run up, but like.. this Falcons team is not elite right now, in my opinion. Bills are in another class, I’m willing to wager on it. Plus I think Josh will do well, numbers-wise, in the dome.

If the defending champ Eagles and my hometown Bills can’t get it done this week, not sure anyone would do it for me this week. Good luck all & I’ll take all the luck I can get. If you think it, it’ll make its way over here. :-)

YTD: 8-4, +10.45 units

Philadelphia got absolutely stomped out 34-17 by the Giants. Two weeks in a row (Bills last week, Eagles here) lost a divisional game at around -7 to -7.5. I was totally wrong, Dart was excellent, and Hurts got sacked a ton by that front 7 I just glossed right over in the last post. Wow that was a surprise! At least to me. I was really unsure if I was gonna make the play - even today - so I guess should’ve just chilled as planned. But dang!! I really really liked the play. I was just wrong. Road games, especially road division games.. watch out big time. Are Eagles frauds this year..? Was it one bad game? Are Giants legit?! My goodness. The parity is starting early and often after a lack of fireworks until the last two weeks (outside Browns over Pack). Recalibrating and will focus on my last 2 survivor teams (in my 5 entry contest) for a bit.

Entries Survivor Week 7 (past selections in order) remaining teams (of 5 original entries. I was eliminated in the separate pool with only one entry):

Team 3: Kansas City Chiefs (DEN, ARZ, SEA, BUF, DET, GB)
Team 5: Kansas City Chiefs (PHI, BUF, SEA, DEN, DET, GB)

Tapping in the old man for his thoughts as I rock my break on my teases for a bit - and it’s not time yet to get too cute with it. KC can’t get trapped after gaining momentum and starting as slow as they did.. plus they’re at home and the only double digit chalk at minus a dozen. This play is similar to last week; we have KC available and are just thinking we should try not to get too cute with it. Still aiming to become a champion of my hometowns largest casino (maybe like only one with a sport book)’s inaugural survivor pool. Going to try to do the forum proud.

PS Bills lost too on MNF last night; I wonder if I redo my past year (or couple years’) analysis and add only home teams and only non division opponents - I wonder what the record would be. Roadies seem to be getting smoked at times and division can be sticky… so I wonder what the numbers would say there.

Survivor Week 8 (past selections in order) remaining teams (of 5 original entries):

Team 3: Indianapolis Colts (DEN, ARZ, SEA, BUF, DET, GB, KC)
Team 5: Indianapolis Colts (PHI, BUF, SEA, DEN, DET, GB, KC)

Only two double digit chalks and can’t pick one of them bc we used them last week. Indy’s the obvious choice and still not late enough to get cute with it. Indy may not be a Super Bowl team imo, but pops says their O looks pretty special.. and I’ve personally watched a couple Titans games this year.. wow they’re bad. They lose that game to Arizona a couple weeks back nine out of ten times imo.

Also a little more color on Indy as the survival pick this week.. 14.5 is a lot.. unsure about that number, but love them to get the win.

Some more food for thought.. Indy - power ranking is 2nd, Ten is 31st. The NFL has parody and anyone can beat anyone but Indy is 1st in scoring at 33 points a game and Ten is 32nd at 13 points a game. Indy has to be thinking that the #1 seed is in reach and hasn’t lost at home, so we’re not thinking trap game although with Rodgers hosting them next week, who knows. Additionally, Indy also has the #1 running back - Taylor has been a beast and even Jones is a top 5 QB so far this season. Who woulda thunk it?

Survivor Week 9 (past selections in order) remaining teams (of 5 original entries):

Team 3: Los Angeles Rams(DEN, ARZ, SEA, BUF, DET, GB, KC, IND)
Team 5: Los Angeles Rams (PHI, BUF, SEA, DEN, DET, GB, KC, IND)

Of the 191 original entrants, we are down to our final 11 and I have two of the remaining 11 entries. First place is the only goal for this contest. In my hometown, essentially using the UA strategy - survivor style - I want to win this thing

Last week I looked at Eagles/Bills and wished I had waited two weeks bc against the Giants again (not losing twice) and Bills off the bye, they weren’t losing. But I’ve been chilling for a couple weeks outside of survivor. Can’t tease just anything, but that’s would’ve been good if I was locked in. If I did anything this week, I’d be looking at Chargers/Lions.

Anyway - onto my survivor pick, with Old Man B helping bring this one home. Los Angeles Rams 2x. When you’ve got a 14+ point chalk in good position with two or less entries left… why do one for a -14 and one for a -8 if you like the -14 better? We’ll need that second entry when I have to pick two five point chalks later in the year, etc.

Just copy pasting the old man’s note…

“Both plays on LAR. LAR is tied for 1st in their division and can move into 1st by themselves if Sea loses against Was later that night. SF is right behind them. No trap game. Tight division. NO is starting a rookie QB this week. LAR is ranked 8th compared to NO being ranked 30th. NO has given up 13 points a game more than LAR on defense. and LAR has scored 7 more points a game than NO.”

Lol honestly he could’ve said McVay and Stafford vs a Rookie QB on the road and that would be good enough for me. Go Rams. Good luck all!

*final 27 entires. Sorry, worker only verified from one of the casino locations in that 11 number

The survivor pick won, onto the next week with two entries still remaining! Hopefully a couple more went down with multiple upsets in the 1p window of this here week 9. I always thought weeks 2-7 were the sweetest spot, weeks 2-8 I guess this year for the teasing 7-9 point chalks.

But one point worth noting is while yes Bills/Eagles would’ve won last week, a play I liked but didn’t make. The Chargers (they won vs terrible Titans on the road but only by 7) and Lions bet would’ve failed this week. Lions were upset as a -8.5 road chalk. Division game!! Watch out for those. Dang. Roadies and division games gotta watch out for.. still fine tuning and analyzing the teasing strategy for sure.

PS next couple weeks may be tough.. choices starting to get a bit more tight. Looking at Chargers next week, Patriots the following.. but Chargers are -4.5 for dang sake. This might be where since we have two left, we split them and pick a couple chalks to spread exposure.

Survivor Week 10 (of 5 original entries)

Team 3: Carolina Panthers (DEN, ARZ, SEA, BUF, DET, GB, KC, IND, LAR)
Team 5: Los Angeles Chargers (PHI, BUF, SEA, DEN, DET, GB, KC, IND, LAR)

Of the 191 original entrants, we are down to our final 25. That’s the correct number for the entire contest.

If you can take the Broncos, they’re probably a better bet. If you can take Indy, maybe them too - but ehh watch out for that -6.5 and it’s overseas where funkiness happens often. Bills, Seahawks, Lions are also good spots.

But this is where the magic of Survivor contest separates the best from the next tier. None of the teams listed in the last paragraph can be chosen by either of my two remaining survivor teams. So that in mind, I don’t believe there is any team left that is worthy of both remaining entries. On a week like this, my goal is to survive. I would like to survive both, but making sure I get at least one to the next week is integral (obviously or else I’m done).

So of the choices do I trust Chicago? Not really. Giants are bad, but Chicago is so inconsistent.

Do I trust Carolina? I’m not sure. But at home against the debatably worst team in the NFL? Sure. They only have one loss at home and it’s against the Buffalo Bills off a two game losing streak and a bye week. That loss wouldn’t even be held against the Baltimore Ravens when they were good or the Kansas City Chiefs, I’m not necessarily going to hold it against Carolina. New Orleans is winless on the road, they actually have a good home crowd, historically speaking, so going against the Saints on the road is more ideal.

As for the Chargers, they are starting to think playoffs and in this primetime game at home, they need to come ready. Also, Pittsburgh is 0-2 in primetime games this year and one loss to Cinci, who isn’t that good. Last week they beat an overrated (yes, sorry, Indy is a little overrated right now – AFC South champions maybe, but not Super Bowl contender) Colts team by only 7… when Indy had SIX turnovers. Are you kidding me? Pit is a tough place to play, we can explain some of these games away pretty easily.

Hoping on Carolina and Chargers for the wins this week and perhaps some other upsets. Good luck all

NFL 11/9/25

Detroit Lions -2.5 & Los Angeles Chargers ML (+112) for 3 units

A rare situation where you will get plus money with an unfair advantage wager, but this one stemmed from liking the Chargers this evening. I look at who Pittsburgh has played this year and I am just not quite convinced that they are an amazing team or Super Bowl contender. I’m not sure the Chargers are either, but they have had some solid wins in there and gotten back on track the last couple weeks. Pittsburgh win last week against Indy was about as fraudulent as they can come as the Colts had six turnovers.

Additionally, Detroit lost last week as big favorites on the road. It was against a division rival and I know they are playing the Eagles next week, but they absolutely cannot afford for this to be a trap game to any extent. They need to get this victory and get back on track. I have no issue taking my wager from -157 vig to +112 and adding the Detroit Lions at -2.5 this week. I read that Mariota has as many picks as TDs in his four starts this year. I also put thought into Chargers -2.5 which would make this wager +132, that’s what started it - but honestly, it was close and I wanted to align with my potentially (hopefully not - but Carolina is currently down 10) last survivor pick.

NFL 11/9/25

Detroit Lions -2.5 & Los Angeles Chargers ML (+112) for 3 units

A rare situation where you will get plus money with an unfair advantage wager, but this one stemmed from liking the Chargers this evening. I look at who Pittsburgh has played this year and I am just not quite convinced that they are an amazing team or Super Bowl contender. I’m not sure the Chargers are either, but they have had some solid wins in there and gotten back on track the last couple weeks. Pittsburgh win last week against Indy was about as fraudulent as they can come as the Colts had six turnovers.

Additionally, Detroit lost last week as big favorites on the road. It was against a division rival and I know they are playing the Eagles next week, but they absolutely cannot afford for this to be a trap game to any extent. They need to get this victory and get back on track. I have no issue taking my wager from -157 vig to +112 and adding the Detroit Lions at -2.5 this week. I read that Mariota has as many picks as TDs in his four starts this year. I also put thought into Chargers -2.5 which would make this wager +132, that’s what started it - but honestly, it was close and I wanted to align with my potentially last survivor pick.

Only one entry remains of my five survivor plays for my hometown casino’s inaugural contest. Carolina was -5.5 against a bad Saints team and lost 17-7, but Chargers won comfortably 25-10. Here’s the remaining entry:
Team 5 (PHI, BUF, SEA, DEN, DET, GB, KC, IND, LAR, LAC)

As for my wagers…

YTD: 9-4, +13.45 units, after a 3 unit win (if there is a duplicate post, that is my mistake - only one play) a -8.5 Det road tease down to -2.5 and -3 LAC bought down to ML at home. Lions won by 22 and Chargers by 15.

*YTD: 9-4, +13.81 units

I did the math wrong on the previous one, I’m so used to laying vague that I forgot to get my 3.36 units, not just 3 added to my YTD total.

NFL 11/13 & 11/16/25

New England Patriots ML, Baltimore Ravens ML, & Kansas City Chiefs +4 (-134) for 4 units

Survivor Week 11 (of 5 original entries):

Team 5: New England Patriots (PHI, BUF, SEA, DEN, DET, GB, KC, IND, LAR, LAC)

Down to our final 16 contestants in our survival pool (of the original 191)! Rolling with the Patriots this week. Largest line and I have them available at home against the Jets. Hate that it’s a division game and a trappy spot, but sometimes you can’t over complicate it. I don’t want an inconsistent Houston team on the road at Ten at -7.5 when I have a -12.5 option. Trying not to get “too cute” with it.

Onto my play’s analysis…

First, my survivor team. We have a surging upstart Patriots team against a hapless Jets team selling off spare parts. They won last week while being outgained big time yardage wise but merely bc they had TWO return TDs. That’s not duplicatable. Patriots shouldn’t lay an egg here with a Vrabel coached team.. they should be ready. Is it worth -770 (or -590 if I had stuck with -3) to add to this parlay? Probably not, but they’re also my survivor team so if that were to crash and burn, I may need a minute off anyway lol. That said, Pats are middle plus, Jets are the worst team in the league debatably.

Next the Ravens. I’ve been keeping an eye on them waiting for them to turn it around this season! The bet of the year was them to win the division a couple weeks ago I’m sure. Pit pre their current collapse and Balt before their streak. Maybe Burrow when was still healthy? Anyway - this Ravens defense looks great lately. Browns - nah, sure they outplayed the Jets last week but when two bad teams play each other and then go against two better teams the following week, that’s sometimes a wake up call and they get clocked. That’s what I’m hoping happens to both the Jets and Browns this week. Also, I like this play because specifically Jackson had a bad game last week. So that reduces the chances of letdown from a key position. You know he’ll want to get it going and they do not want to lose this division game. Not trappy imo. Browns beat the Pack earlier. Balt will be ready imo.

Lastly the Chiefs. This might be my favorite play of the week. And getting them plus 4? In a super duper must win scenario? Broncos offense isn’t great so plus some points could prove valuable. But honestly, if I made one play this week it would’ve been -200 ish on KC moneyline. KC looks good, has weapons back, and honestly.. just gut check this one. Dig into those Broncos wins.. are we sure sure they’re a SB contender? Bc I’m .. not so sure.

I went this three teamer route instead and will be very interested to see if a -134 vig three teamer can get the job done. My analysis this year of 2 team plays vs 3 team plays will be intriguing. I did eyeball some options at plus money and decided to go with the viewing value the -134 brings.

YTD: 10-4, +17.81 units

I was very fortunate that my survivor team won - the Patriots won by 13 on Thursday. They were either 12.5 or 13.5 point favorites depending on when you placed the wager during the week. Baltimore won by seven, but the game was tied with only a few minutes left and Shadeur Sanders was driving back down seven as time was expiring, it was a sweat. Very glad I had them at the money line instead of the -7.5 they were against the spread. And then the third play, the Kansas City Chiefs, lost by three. Betting them +4 proved to be extremely valuable. This was actually the first wager this season where I was considering a couple different scenarios and because of the specific scenario I chose, I was able to pull a win from the jaws of defeat. This is the “unfair advantage“ strategy at work. The whole premise behind the strategy is that the bookmakers are better handicappers than I am. If you read my previous post, Kansas City on the Moneyline at -205 was one of my favorite, if not my favorite, play of the week. Instead of playing it alone, I combined it to make the wager I went with this week.If I went with these games against the spread, depending on what the line was, there’s a chance I would’ve gone 0–3.

NFL 11/20 & 11/24/25

Buffalo Bills +4.5 & San Francisco 49ers ML (-200) for 2 units

Survivor Week 12 (of 5 original entries):
Team 5: San Francisco 49ers (PHI, BUF, SEA, DEN, DET, GB, KC, IND, LAR, LAC, NE)

The rationale For picking the 49ers in survivor is pretty easy, I don’t think there was another favorite that I still could pick of over four points. Many of these weeks, surviving in a survivor league is just executing and not trying to get too fancy with it.

As for the game itself, I think Carolina is the lowest ceiling team I’ve ever seen with a winning record after 11 weeks in the NFL. They can’t beat a real football team that has any consistency. The win against the Packers was nice, but that team is a house of cards some weeks… From the beginning, I haven’t been sold on them. They beat the Jets, the Dolphins, the Falcons twice, and Dallas, by the hair of their chinny chin chin. When they had a real game against Buffalo, they got smacked. When they absolutely had control of the situation and were playing the Saints at home, they laid a terrible egg. The Carolina Panthers team I said could find a way to win the NFC south last year… They didn’t reach the ceiling in my opinion. There is no chance they beat out the Bucs and the Bucs aren’t even that good. San Francisco has a lot of injuries, but they are starting to get healthier and Brock looked really good last week. No reason for a trap situation, on a Monday night, primetime game at home against the team that could sneak up from behind them and take a wildcard spot, I truly believe Kyle Shanahan will have his team ready.

As for the early part, my Thursday night game, do I think the Buffalo Bills are a good value here? Yes I do. I actually think Houston isn’t very good at all, they are like a worse version of Green Bay in my opinion. For the record, taking both teams on the money line was around a -130 bet and if I bet a much higher volume of plays, I would’ve had to consider the -130 version. That said, the same logic would’ve lost me my wager last week with Kansas City on the Moneyline.

Historically, Buffalo doesn’t lose by a lot when they lose. They had lost by double digits once before the past like five games in the past four years or some ridiculous stat like that. I’m not ready to say that this team is a completely different team… Also, they really need to win. So that said, the +4 cushion makes me feel very comfortable with who I believe is the better team and certainly the team with the better quarterback.