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NBA 6/16/25

Oklahoma City -9.5 for 4 units
Oklahoma City to win finals -1.5 games (-110) for 2 units*

*FYI, I already have four units pending for them -1.5 games in the series, but I do believe the thunder will win game five which would allow this to be a free swing play if I bet Indiana plus the points in game six, which is what I plan to do. Hence, this is over my 4/5 unit maximum per play. Then ideally, Oklahoma City would win by under five points in game six.

As for tonight, I know the sequence didn’t occur in the order that I expected, but Oklahoma City still won one game in Indiana as I expected. It was far more dramatic than I expected, but they got it done. The Home/Road impact is a little larger than I would’ve expected in some of these series; also, when the Thunder play multiple road games and come back home they’ve done really well this season - reg and post. Only one loss in OT to Minnesota, mostly double digit wins, one by 7, and one by 9. This game also reminds me of game five against the Nuggets when the thunder won by seven – but they also had more shots and could’ve won by more – and game five against Minnesota when they smoked them. Once they showed the Timberwolves that they were the better team and won that hard game four, they had the momentum and it was just too much.

I know I said -9.5 can be a little bit of a sneaky line and it is, but I don’t think as much when it happens like this.. it started at nine and moved up to 9.5, so it sort of happened in a different way. I’m still only seeing around 32 to 33% of the public on the thunder against the spread on multiple sites and line is still holding-ish, which means Vegas and some big players still believe the thunder are to be anointed. I have always believed that they will take this thing and lately. I’ve been 50-50 in six or seven, that hasn’t changed. Thunder are going to win tonight imo by 7-16 points. More of those results cover the spread than not! Last pint and it’s a simple one I touched on in “Bet the House,” but OKC shot 18.8% from 3 last game - only making three… and still found a way to win by 7. A couple more of those ringers hit.. and a little more energy/confidence from young role players and OKC can win this one by double digits.

My deep down thesis going into this series was that the thunder were way better. I’m not sure they’re way better, but they are better. Here’s to hoping they take care of business tonight and then we can take stock of where we’re at and how to execute game 6 and the potential hedge. If Thunder barely win this one (by single digits) and then lose game 6, it doesn’t matter what happens in game 7 - Ind proved they were far tougher and better than I expected heading into the series.

PS - this unfortunately will be a losing NBA season for me, you’re not going to see a flurry of plays to try to catch up and create a winning season - I would hope to never chase… Certainly never to that extent. I would like to end up with a winning combined season between NFL and NBA, I was up 20.7 units in NFL last season.

NBA 6/19/25

Indiana +6.5 for 3 units

I couldn’t not roll with Indy here after adding that hedge play before game 5. Fyi - if I truly thought Thunder by 7+, I wouldn’t make this bet. Yes, it’s a hedge, but I would just let the series plays roll if I didn’t think both plays could win. This also opens up a nice opportunity if OKC wins a close one. And honestly, I expect a close one.

Game 5 wasn’t close at all (OKC was up 14 at half and controlled the first half) and it STILL got down to a 2 point OKC lead in the 4th. You think this Indy team that keeps coming back late won’t have some fight in them? Then you’re crazy. First time going with Indy ATS this series and I may not if I didn’t also have 6 units pending on OKC winning the series. I may still. I have this being a 1-2 bucket game. Hopefully it’s OKC on the winning side and hopefully it’s by less than 5.

My prediction right now as of today is this game 6 is a 50/50 toss up and the magic for the Pacers runs out. Maybe they make a run late and end up just short.. but I’ll predict OKC by two and they close out the series on the road. Either way - in a game like that, catching +5 is a nice cushion to have. Also, if I were a betting man (I am), I’d bet we close around OKC -4 or -4.5, so I’ll take this +5 while I’ve got it. Immediate move from OKC -6 to -5.

*****OK! My analysis above was written before the Halliburton MRI and calf strain news popped up and the line moved from -5 to -6.5. I was on my way to place the bet, refreshed the casino site, and boom -6.5. So I actually used this opportunity to reduce this from a 4 to a 3 unit play. My updated prediction is Thunder by 5-7 points; Pacers still cover a majority of those scenarios, but I wonder if I would touch this game if I did not have the series play pending with this news coming out. We may never know; but we will see how “in series” series bets will treat me this year after Game 6, either way. Also.. I did not buy the hook up though bc that’s not what we do here on a 6.5 (even tho two games this series were already decided by 7 points AND this is a weird hedge situation). This could be the final game of the NBA season and no hook played a part of any bet this year for me… so… just saying.*****

Pending:
Oklahoma City to win series -1.5 games (+100) for 4 units
Oklahoma City to win series -1.5 games (-110) for 2 units

Single game ATS/ML/totals: 11-8-1, +7.42 units
Parlays: 0-3, -11.49 units
Series bets: 0-1, -4.4 units
Futures: 0-3, -11 units
YTD: 11-15-1, -19.47 units

And some reflection on earlier games… OKC won game 4 by 7, line ended at -6.5 btw. They were covering all of the scenarios but begs my question of the -5 hook. It didn’t come into play at all this year and probably cost me money, if anything.

Game 5 was -9.5 (-109) and -9 was -120, and I still eyed it for a second in a big game like this. Thunder won by 11, it would’ve cost me. Frankly, no points should be bought (like ever) in NBA if I think what I’m proving as more and more time passes.

This game.. didn’t think it would come into play with Indy +5.. but then the line slid up with the Hali injury (although he said if he can walk, he wants to play).

Good thing I got the Pacers at +6.5, the hook made a huge difference - JUST KIDDING! Pacers were up 30 and won by 17. Hail was fine. Stop worrying about buying hooks/points ever in NBA, sometimes it’ll go your way, sometimes not.. NFL has “key numbers” and the UA has a whole system around it. But buying hooks in basketball (ever) is just to make you feel better, it hasn’t helped enough, enough times, statistically to continue doing it. I’m removing it from my arsenal and I’m just going to try to find a good line but let it be when I don’t get my number by a point or a half and whine when it’s more than that, but still let it go.

As for the most important reflection on this NBA season for me is that these splits below are comical. Crazy and memorable season for me, sports betting let’s say 20-25 years, this one is up there in terms of learning a valuable lesson. I’m 12-8-1 on single game plays, evaluated in a vacuum and knowing to avoid public 65%+ sides, and 0-9 in bets where I gave the sportsbook back the edge or they went over a period of time. Well, the Unfair Advantage was clearly in the book’s favor this year and by using this strategy.

Single game ATS/ML/totals: 12-8-1, +10.42 units
Parlays: 0-3, -11.49 units
Series bets: 0-3, -10.6 units
Futures: 0-3, -11 units
YTD: 11-15-1, -22.67 units

Also, from a betting standpoint – Oklahoma City was coordinated before the game even started. People were even like… Even if they do lose, game seven is automatic. I saw graphics of SGA next to Michael Jordan and LeBron James. I saw a graphic of how this Oklahoma City team could have the best individual season ever or one of.. and on the other side, you have fighters, experience, and a very tough team? The +6.5 that ended up at six by game time seemed even more obvious in retrospect. I will note that Indiana has been around 65% of public bets almost every game, so when you have a big chalk in a series especially, may have to adjust the 65% rule but still be aware.

Also… Oklahoma City did cover the last two games, but in both cases needed a run towards the end to do so. When 0–2 in my series bets but both were on Oklahoma City -1.5 games. Four – one in the ATS.

NBA 6/22/25

Oklahoma City -7 (-115) for 3 units

Again, not buying any hooks in NBA moving forward; I’ll aim for a simple -115 max just like I’ll aim to avoid the 65% public plays. 43% on OKC today. While the history of game 7’s show us a very close matchup.. my whole estimation was that the East was weak this year. They’re clearly not, but in a game 7 at home, I think the younger team that is also the better team is able to bring it home and not blow this one. This would be a monumental, historic upset. For me, it’s a heck of an upset that it even went to 7.. but this Indy team coached by Ric is the meaning of greater than the sum of its parts. A ten point victory that has OKC with a 4-8 point lead with under 5 minutes left. Not a blowout, but an OKC win with exciting moments is my prediction.

Good luck all and see you come NFL season, either way!

Let’s make this 4 units please at -7, line is still available. Thank you!

Thunder took it down.

Single game ATS/ML/totals: 13-8-1, +14.42 units
Parlays: 0-3, -11.49 units
Series bets: 0-3, -10.6 units
Futures: 0-3, -11 units
YTD: 12-15-1, -18.67 units

Tough, interesting NBA season. I should read this note again in the future and try to learn from this year.

Learned never to make a bet with the intention of hedging later, I learned that anything beyond a single game wager is not a profitable venture for me (to a comical extent), and I learned never to manipulate the lines in NBA. Didn’t provide any value and had a full season sample size of buying 5 hooks. Instead, keep the vig low (aim for -115 at the most) and try to pick some correct games (while aiming for less than 65% public plays).

Also aim for only full game bets.. I’ll use the finals as my example. No first half or single quarter bets. I would’ve been 1-1 if I bet those first half bets I was seriously considering and 0-1 in a single quarter bet had I made it (Thunder in games 5 & 7; 5, they covered first half but they covered anyway for my full game play. Game 7, they didn’t cover the first half -4.5.. but won the game by 12 and covered. They also got beat in the second quarter by 4 and I really liked OKC -1.5 (-125) in the 2nd quarter.. but didn’t play it fortunately. Next year, avoid those table games at the casino when placing your bets too… lol. Try your best to stick to disciplined principles, it may just pay off.

Preparing for next NFL season includes analyzing last year’s plays. Hopefully I’m smart enough to analyze the NBA season that just ended before betting at all next year…

Analyzing my NFL bets in depth last year, it was an interesting season from a data standpoint. While I’ve learned that I have to stick with ATS for NBA and manipulation of the line doesn’t help in basketball .. the lines are so sharp in NFL, it can be very favorable and profitable when attacking correctly. I will note that last year, a lot of chalks won - so a tease strategy would work better in seasons like that. If this season was backwards to that, this theory/strategy may flop.

I started with a 0-5 run (-15.2 units) and ended with a Super Bowl day of 0-4 (-6.6 units)… but in between there, I was 26-6 (+42.5 units). Wow. Like I knew it was a good run, but that’s ridiculous. Now I need to learn from last year to avoid the stuff that doesn’t work and try to be sustainable. Just like I learned some stuff this year in NBA, will try to apply that next year and win/lose on my terms, with my very best plays.

Ok, last year we were 26-15, +20.7 units. But here’s the tale of the tape to learn from… first, I have done this math multiple times now and think it’s actually 26-15 (+21.7 units), but that’s not the point of this. Here’s my breakdown and the tale of the tape becomes obvious once broken down… I’m rounding to nearest tenth and there may be a typo in here, but it’s all within a game. Checked and double checked - but I also want to learn what I do well in betting these sports and with trying to take back “The Unfair Advantage.”

Single game ATS/ML Plays: 1-2, +0.7 units
Super Bowl props: 0-2, -2.5 units
4 Play Parlays (3 sides, 1 total): 0-1, -2 units
3 Play Parlays (one was all sides, one was 2 sides & 1 total) parlays/teases: 0-2, -7 units
2 Play parlays when a total is also included: 1-2, -2 units (won week 1 or 2, lost midseason, lost Super Bowl tease)

***And this is where it gets interesting:***

2 play parlays (sides only): 24-6, +34.5 units

2 play parlays (sides only) with a vig of even money (lightest all season was -107) through -149: 13-2, +28.9 units

2 Play parlays (sides only) with a vig of -150 through -200: 11-4, +5.6 units

It seems that (I should’ve already known this but still) two team tease/parlays with sides only and utilizing key numbers efficiently is the most profitable approach. It also seems that once you head to -150 or above.. those L’s take a lotttt of wind out of your sail, so you gotta be very, very careful with the weight. 11-4 and one L away from a losing unit record on those parlays with a vig of -150 to -200. That’s awfully heavy.

One more stat.. two side only tease/parlays from -149 through-165 were 6-4.. BAD record. But I noticed they started out 5-0.. seems that oddsmakers adjusted after a few weeks when teases must’ve been cleaning up. Adjusting after that point to lower weight two side parlays did pay off btw. So it seems that with these two side parlays there’s a perfect, ideal sweet spot of low to no vig up to laying 3 to win 2. Then there’s a tough window.. then you lay 2:1 and it’s a good record, but wow is it expensive, so know what you’re doing.

So.. am I getting to the place where all my NFL bets should be two side teases with an all in vig of let’s say -105 to -145…. and in the NBA, I’m only allowed to bet ATS, can never manipulate lines and need to aim to pay no more than -115 vig while aiming to avoid any 65%+ public sides? Yeah, probably. Now comes the hard part of actually doing what I should.

Last post about this seasons NBA.. I was technically 5-1 on single game ATS bets in the finals .. but I was 0-2 on series bets in those same finals (OKC -1.5 games for both at different points) and my three futures had already flopped (the thesis earlier this year of OKC or Cle can’t win it all - lol wrong about OKC for sure). It’s just more of a reminder of how I have to approach NBA. I may have bet ATS differently, not touched Game 6 for example (I had Ind +6.5 as a bet but also a hedge position), had I not had those series bets going. But this is how those “expert” handicappers can *seem to be* always winning. It’s all data.. if you frame enough coin flip challenges in a very specific way (ie “last 15,” “last 30,” or “bets like this are 11-2”), you can almost always find an angle to look good. Just look at my NFL post right above; it could be framed as “Wow 24-6 in two team parlays..” but that doesn’t take into account the totals I lost on or the three leg plays.. I lost some along the way too.

Best we can do is be objective in our betting and try to learn from it. For me personally, probably should’ve already known this.. but NBA - ATS only.. and NFL - two side parlay/teases are the way to go (only bet as a parlay tho or if must be a tease where a push loses, make sure to get to a half point).

NFL 9/4 & 9/7/25

Philadelphia Eagles ML & Denver Broncos ML (-162) for 4 units

I’m baaack!!!! Now I know you don’t know me, but I firmly believe that I have now learned from some of my past sports betting mistakes. My wife always asks me… “Jeff, why do you even have to make the mistake? Just learn from others..” Well guess what honey? I can’t, not smart enough. But then eventually, I make the mistake myself… A couple times… maybe more.. and then I seem to finally understand it. Did the same thing with investing.. and life in general through the years. But anyway, in NFL, I stopped fighting the oddsmakers - they win that fight against me. I work with them and try to make money doing so.

In the NBA, if I do literally anything other than single game ATS plays, I get clobbered. Especially futures plays it seems. LY, I ended 11-8-1 on single game sides/MLs and 0-7 with everything else. Ok, that’s a comically wild split - but I get the picture.

In the NFL, I’ve had brief stints of success with various approaches but only one tactic that’s consistently worked for me. PS I did do the Bad Man contest a few years back and damn that was humbling. ATS is hard. The linesmakers are EXCELLENT. That’s the whole premise of my strategy. It’s like playing a Survivor football league on steroids every week, but you gotta pick two. I studied last year’s plays in depth and was 24-6 on two play parlay/teases that only included sides (not totals). I will be going in with the play to exclusively only place those type of bets this year. Usually I look for a 7-9.5 (not 6-6.5, that’s usually a trappy line) point favorite and usually bringing it down to a -1.5 is the best value. There were no instances in my 30 examples where my side won but did not cover the spread. For example, waiting and placing this bet at -1.5 each would probably have been a much better value.

But today, I wanted to place my bet early so I took both teams on the ML, but I would bet you can get them both -1.5 the week leading up for a more reasonable vig like a -145 perhaps. I’ll also look and take note when that time comes. But I stared at these games and this play for so long, that I just want them on the ML during what historically has been a funky NFL week each year, week 1. I’ll be using a 1-4 unit scale again with most plays being 4, then some 2’s, and a rare rare 5 unit play. Also, sometimes I’ll use half a portion of tease pair twice, etc, if I really like it and moreso than the other half.

So there were four teams I was eyeballing right away for this strategy; Eagles, Broncos, Commanders, and Cardinals. Cardinals I’d want to get to +3 but that could be expensive. I also got hit with this ugly pick video Kyler through in preseason and it just turned me off. That team does feast on bottom dwellers tho - so I can see this side being a pair partner for a smaller play closer to. But the Commanders - why not them against a “crappy” Giants team? Are we ***sure*** that Washington with their bottom 10 defense is actually the better team next year? This reminds me when I bet Packers against the Giants in Rodgers’s last year in GB. There was NO reason GB should lose that London game against a shitty Giants team… but then you look back and by the end of the season, Rodgers faded and Giants I think made a wildcard that year. Either way the former is true; GB underperformed. Wash has a bad D and Jaylen can have a sophomore slump. As for the Cards/Saints, Cards prob smoke ‘em but Saints are still figuring out their situation. Actually.. this Aints team is gonna draft Manning aren’t they? I may circle back and play the Cards. Don’t trust Wash fully yet although they were good at home.

OK! Onto my actual analysis. Does it concern me that Philly has a Super Bowl rematch week 2? YES. Especially since they clobbered Dallas LY big time. BUT.. bc it’s week 1, a standalone game, the season opener, at home against a division rival and it’s banner day…? Yeah Philly should be ready. They probably cruise in week 2 also, but my goodness week 3 could be a trap idc who they play. Dallas meanwhile… got embarrassed in preseason against the Ravens - it’s preseason, who cares - but it’s a testament that their defense (it seems more defenders play preseason) is really not very good. Then add on that, Micah AND Diggs are unhappy and may or may not play; either way are distracted. And then Dak returning; even Brady when he came back in 2008 was like a 14 point chalk (I bet them) and they barely squeaked it out I believe. Not a good game for Dak to return to, but even before he got hurt his record wasn’t that good. And don’t worry too much about the home/road split for Dallas bc Dak was notoriously better at home for years and there were years the narrative was completely flipped for Dal and they could only win at home. Throw that data point away imo. I think Philly has too much firepower and wins by double digits - but even if it’s a close game, we have them at home on the ML here and they know how to win. Especially if they get that lead. Cowboys play div rival Giants at home in week 2, so if they start getting smacked around in week 1 - they may mentally start thinking about winning week 2 in the 3rd quarter.

As for part two of the play, yeah - hard not to like Sean Payton against a rookie QB. I like Cam Ward, seems like a good dude; but they really don’t have much in terms of weapons/offensive continuity yet/ and are already tapering expectations on their rookie QB. I can see a Peyton Manning 3-13 growing pains type rookie year. But if they stick with that kid… I mean who knows. He could be good. I hope they let him grow even if year 1 is bumpy. On the other side, Denver is up and coming. Beats bad teams, made the wildcard (only to get trampled) and are stepping in the right direction. Bo is playing well and overall, I am more betting on a good Denver defensive performance (with a hopefully well disguised scheme) against a rookie QB. Denver was 6-2 at home LY, Tennessee was 3-14 overall. I’ve got a Sean Payton defense vs a rookie QB and Payton has been saying he says this is one of six teams he’s coached that can win a Super Bowl, etc, they have high expectations. Week 2 is a nothingburger against Colts on the road, so they’ll be coming ready to play this week.

I think Philly & Denver can win their week 1 games and are more likely than not to do so. Good luck all!

I’m seeing Eagles/Broncos ML parlay at -175 right now. Pricey, but I still like the play. I’m bumping it up to 5 units for one of my stronger of the year plays. Week 1’s can be funky, but statistically I don’t believe the largest favorite survival team (Bengals LY, Broncos TY) are likely to be bounced week 1 two years in a row (I was around survivor leagues for too many decades to believe that’s statistically likely) and the other half of the play is the Super Bowl winner week 1 at home, there’s good stats around that play against a team that just traded their best player. Dallas has been talked trash about all offseason, so they will actually play with pride and it could be a single digit game (I would predict Eagles by 4-12. I just don’t think they have enough firepower on defense to slow down the Eagles. And Hurts/Philly will also have a chip on their shoulder bc he got disrespected all offseason a bit too. They ate off that motivation in the SB.. they’re going to be ready for Week 1. Last two seasons they came out with good single digit wins in week 1.

TL;DR: making my Philly/Denver ML parlay 5 units, paying -175 for the fifth unit.

Survival Football! I just placed my formal picks for week 1 for 5 entries (max per person) into the largest casino group in my hometown city/area’s NFL survivor contest. It’s actually the inaugural year for the survival contest at this sports book, so I’m excited and I’d like to win. Wish me luck! I probably won’t ever be a Freak’s Bad Man.. not good enough ATS… but I’d love to be the champion of this contest. If you do a survival league and want to follow along, by all means. Good luck!

Most folks who do survivor leagues only have one entry, so please note that strategies should change based on # of entries. I do a buddy’s survival pool where I only have one entry. I’ll discuss that as well for reference for folks who are in a pool with only one entry. I will likely not be rebuying in any contest unless it just makes too much statistical sense not to based on participants remaining, cost, and potential ROI. So, in all likelihood, what will be will be with these entries!

5 Entries Survivor Week 1 (past selections in order):
Team 1: Denver Broncos (n/a)
Team 2: Denver Broncos (n/a)
Team 3: Denver Broncos (n/a)
Team 4: Philadelphia Eagles (n/a)
Team 5: Philadelphia Eagles (n/a)

If I only had one entry, aka my buddy’s league (past selections in order): Denver Broncos (n/a)

NFL 9/14/25

Buffalo Bills +3 & Baltimore Ravens -3 (-210) for 2 units
Arizona Cardinals +3 & Baltimore Ravens -3 (-200) for 2 units

YTD: 1-0, +5 units

I was fortunate to win in week 1, as season openers can be funky. If you read my analysis for this play, you’d see my 20-13 prediction for Broncos was pretty close to the 20-12 final (they were -8.5 and would not have covered ATS) and Philly by 4 (I predicted they’d win by 4-13, but they did not cover their -7–8.5 ranging spread). FYI - there were a lot of games where teasing the line would have helped. I looked at AZ +3 & Cin +3 (it would have covered) at -200 (but that would’ve been very expensive) as a second play last week. But week 1’s are funky and I didn’t want more action. Cin barely squeaked a win by 1 -5.5 and Az won by 7 -6 ish. I was happy with my single play though.

Onto today’s analysis…

I LOVE the Ravens -3 here as a tease/parlay pair. Remember - if your casino/book deems a tie as a loss, you must get the side under -3 for this strategy to work fully. I place them (technically) as parlays; if one side pushes, the bet becomes a single play at a very heavy weight (ie my -165 play goes to a -400 play, reducing potential winnings but never adding additional risk - money is already to the casino for the ticket).

Why? Because they absolutely need the win. Whoever lost that Bills/Ravens game absolutely needed to win week 2. What a freaking game, my goodness - two amazing offenses. And Baltimores defense had life at times - Buffalo’s was awful. But Ravens must win week 2 and I don’t think a Monday home contest against Detroit would be trappy enough this early in the season to cause a big speed bump. FYI - Cleveland outplayed Cinci last week and easily could’ve won.. but they’re not a good squad this year. They’ll have growing pains. Hence - I don’t think they have two Herculean efforts in a row and I think Baltimore takes care of business comfortably in week 2 back at home. Cleveland was 1-8 on the road and Balt 6-2 at home last years reg season.

Now onto the second part of my play… bc if I could just play Balt -3 twice I would, but I can’t. So…

The Buffalo Bills. And.. the Arizona Cardinals. I almost picked them last week and Kyler/AZ feasts on bad teams from everything I can remember.

Before I get into specific reasons for each team, I want to talk about the +3. This was a very, very tough week. Trying to decide between playing these teams on the money line or purchasing the +3 hook was very difficult. I believe most teams that are -6.5, Vegas believes can lose the ball game. There’s a HUGE difference between -6.5 and -7.5, in my opinion. The oddsmakers tell us exactly how they feel. So my players would’ve been in the -152 to -165 range with them on the ML but I’m paying quite a bit extra in vig to grab those cushions. I literally reread old posts analyzing past plays to determine if I could use by historical data to help guide me to this decision, but there’s wasn’t one specific note. The reason I decided to get my cushions is because I really like Baltimore -3. It’s that simple. I believe they deserve a good tease pair and I can’t make it happen unless I pay a little extra. When the bills lose, it’s usually not by much, and I think if Carolina is going to go into Arizona and pull an upset, it’ll be a close game just like last year. I believe both Arizona and Buffalo will win outright, but having a field goal really helps me feel more comfortable.

I think I became enamored with Carolina’s 2-1 finish last year bc in the first of those two wins, I unfortunately bet AZ - although I remember getting updates on that game when I was visiting Canada and it went to OT and was so close. AZ the yards that game. And if you pull back the numbers, Carolina isn’t very good. I know there’s a post here from LY where I said (finding it now) “they could compete for the NFC (South) title with a little more momentum and growth (Plus 7-10 could win the division next year who knows lol).” But idk. I don’t think they come back and win in AZ. Early season AZ is good and they’d love to be 2-0 going into SF week 3. I came around on the Cardinals after digging in and seeing they went 6-3 at home last year.

As for the Bills… that is a terrible defense. Especially run defense.. so.. they’re gonna have to stack the box a bit against NYJ. Does Fields have the skill downfield to take advantage and does NY have enough weapons after Wilson? I don’t think they have enough to score 27 every single time. That’s the number bc I think Bills can get to 24 and even a 27-24 Jets win, bc of my cushion I’m at least pushing. Truth is Bills usually win these games and the fact is they don’t have a trap game or anything that interesting next week.. so a division rival, they’re gonna make sure they’re ready. Especially after everyone has been talking about Sean McDermott’s defense and hot seat all week.. plus the Jets put up 30… they won’t be sleeping, in my opinion.

And… onto the Survival Football section for Week 2. If you read this post, you’ll understand why I made the selections below and you’ll see that we’re probably not going with over 3 of the 5 with any one team, even if I like them as much as I do the Ravens this week.

5 Entries Survivor Week 2 (past selections in order):
Team 1: Baltimore Ravens (DEN)
Team 2: Baltimore Ravens (DEN)
Team 3: Arizona Cardinals (DEN)
Team 4: Baltimore Ravens (PHI)
Team 5: Buffalo Bills (PHI)

If I only had one entry (past selections in order): Baltimore Ravens (DEN)

NFL 9/21/25

Buffalo Bills -3 & Seattle Seahawks ML (-215) for 3 units

YTD: 3-0, +9 units

I promise that I went into this week with the full intention of not laying a -200 or more (way too expensive) parlay… it is not sustainable. Even in my studies of last year, I had a good record, but I was barely positive in terms of units because there is so much weight behind the losses.

At least I didn’t buy the Seahawks to +3 and try to post a -305 play lol. At that point, I’d probably stop even reading my own posts…

Listen, these -200 parlays are extremely tough and you have to feel very confident when you attack them. Miami is in a desperate situation, they could very easily keep this to a touchdown game against the bills – but they are not a good football team and they are not tough. Couple that with the fact that Josh Allen has had a ton of historical success against Miami, the Bills are at home, Miami looks particularly bad this season, and the bills have absolutely no trap on the back end – they play the Saints next week. This is a standalone game on Amazon prime, nationally, you know that Josh Allen will do everything possible under the lights at home to not lay an egg. As long as he brings an average or above effort and the team executes within a reasonable room for error, I believe them winning by three or more is extremely likely. It was also expensive to get them to -3 at -590 for me. I was talking with a friend who suggested taking them to -6.5, but I personally would not do that. Transparently, I don’t believe I would bet any favorite on a tease unless I can get them to -3 or below. I never want to have rooting interest against what the team is trying to accomplish. First off, it makes for a less fun viewing experience, second, I’ve seen too many games through the years and exactly 3 when I’ve had something like this going on. A push on half the play and a win on the other half still actually yields me net positive dollars

I went with three units this week because I didn’t like the Bills quite as much as I liked Baltimore at home against Cleveland last week. Transparently, I was in between two and three units; I may have leaned towards three because of the success in weeks one and two. We shall see if that pays off!

In the second part of the parlay/tease, I went with the Seahawks. Do I feel great about betting Sam Darnold? No. He’s not consistent and I’ve been watching him since he was a Jet.. but that defense I think is pretty real. They are sort of underrated and now we have a potentially weak New Orleans Saints team going on the road for the first time this year. This team is potentially going to be dead last or in the bottom, five of the NFL, I don’t anticipate them winning more than four games, maybe even less. I don’t believe this week or next week will be one of those games the Saints can win. They gave a great effort for their skill level in weeks one and two at home. They played Arizona tough and only lost by a touchdown – although watching last week against Carolina, I’m not sure Arizona is that good either – and then they played San Francisco and it came down to the final possession. They had the ball down five at the end of the game. Was it against Mac Jones and a beat up 49ers team? Yes it was, but Mac’s numbers looked ok. Maybe a Kyle Shanahan system win, but still. So I just spent some time talking about why I’m hesitant, but the reason I like it is because Seattle absolutely needs it. Could it be considered a trap game before they play on Thursday night football the following week against a division rival? Yes it could…Why am I not buying into that? It’s because Sam Darnold and Coach Mike Macdonald don’t have the liberty of having trap games yet. This is more so a confidence builder game for the squad – they absolutely want to be 2-1 heading into that primetime game against Arizona.

Seahawks could very well be looking at 3-1 with Sam Darnold as their quarterback after a three game win streak… Colin Cowherd may take a victory lap at that point, but honestly, I’m not sure this team can - in most scenarios – win more than one playoff game in a great season.

Also, I went with Green Bay for one of the five survivor entries because statistically it makes the most sense, but that on the other hand definitely could be a trap game. You have a kind of desperate Cleveland Browns team that has been playing teams, tough, including in week one when they should’ve beaten Cincinnati… and you’ve got a Green Bay team anointed as the current best team in the NFL by some and they haven’t even played a road game yet. So they go into the dog pound and then the following week they play Detroit… This wasn’t the type of game I was rushing to put some of my hard earned dollars on, but honestly, I can see myself teasing them as we head into the weekend for less units this play along with an appropriate pair. Maybe a live dog that I can get to +9 like Houston, maybe we can bring Tampa to a +3.. i’m not sure yet if I will be making a second play this week, but I have this one and my survivor entries for now.

5 Entries Survivor Week 2 (past selections in order):
Team 1: Green Bay Packers (DEN, BAL)
Team 2: Buffalo Bills (DEN, BAL)
Team 3: Seattle Seahawks (DEN, ARZ)
Team 4: Buffalo Bills (PHI, BAL)
Team 5: Seattle Seahawks (PHI, BUF)

If I only had one entry (past selections in order): Seattle Seahawks (DEN, BAL)*
*In this league (unless there are consequential changes to teams that occur in week 3), if I am fortunate enough to survive week 3, I will likely go with BUF in week 4 against the Saints

NFL 9/21/25 & 9/22/25

Kansas City Chiefs +3 & Baltimore Ravens +3 (-165) for 2 units
Kansas City Chiefs +3 & Green Bay Packers -2.5 (-159) for 1 unit

Pending: Buffalo Bills -3 (9/18*) & Seattle Seahawks ML (-215) for 3 units

YTD: 3-0, +9 units
(Last week, Balt won by 24 (-12.5 in game), up only 10 end of 3rd. Buf won by 20 (-6 by kickoff, ~6.5-7 during week) and in control. AZ up 27-3 in 3rd, almost lost, but won 27-22 as 7 pt chalks needing that tease to cover)

So….. onto this play’s analysis…

I couldn’t actually bring myself to put anything more than 1 unit on GB this week vs Cle when it feels trappy in my soul and I’m really only be able to get them -2.5. Hou at Jax is a weird one but who knows how it goes, I would lean Hou +9 ish but not enough to put money, Ind - no surprise why everyone points to this as a trap - if you look last year they were 3-6 on the road and the wins came by 3, 3, and 1.. so I’m not touching that chalk, TB… idk, Jets are going to win eventually and Bucs aren’t particularly better at home so there isn’t a ton of value there…

But I really liked Kansas City on the ML! So I was starting to think about it and then I remembered one of my whole talking points last year and is how much better the AFC is than the NFC… I played Detroit in the NFC Conference Champ game as a tease, I thought they would get ko’d the following round against Eagles bc I really didn’t believe Washington yet. The point I’m making is I’m not convinced Detroit won’t take a step back this year. Also I believe Buffalo and Baltimore are just so excellent. I’m bouncing around in topics here - but I found value in a 6 pt KC road chalk in a super must win game (especially once getting it to +3 bc of the cushion). This team I’m hoping to get one back one here from in a desperate situation.. I bet them in the Super Bowl and obviously that didn’t work out too well. I want to make right with Patrick, Travis, Andy, and Taylor.

As for the Ravens - the Lions were 8-0 on the road last year, but their schedule was super soft and they won a couple in there close, so I’m thinking there’s more value on the Baltimore side because of this. Starting out with them as 5ish point chalks but getting to +3 is nice - when Det came to Baltimore two years ago, Ravens trounced them 38-6. I usually prefer to tease lower total games bc moving the lines becomes more valuable than with the higher total games and this ones at 53.5. I just like Baltimore to bring their A game here.. and not that they ever seem to win close ones, that’s why I like the +3 as opposed to a ML. And you’re looking at a -115 play if you want them both on the moneyline over the +3 cushion. Last point.. you guys remember those crazy stats with Lamar vs the NFC? He’s lost like two games ever or some ridiculous stat like that. Staring a team that some have as their Super Bowl pick like Detroit in the face is a tough proposition esp after looking at the 8-0 road record LY, but I didn’t want to go all road teams. Home is such an advantage, especially when the goal is not necessarily to win but to get it close and use the cushion if needed.

Also a little more discussion on Green Bay - I went with 1 unit for the Packers bc I decided that GB hasn’t (imo) lost to a “bad” team with Jordan Love since he threw 0 TDs/ 3 INTs at Las Vegas in OCT 2023. That’s almost two years. I do think this could be a trappy spot for GB (they travel to Dallas next week* and it’s still a big place to play) and Cleveland has been playing tough lately - remember they were a playoff team with Flacco just a couple years ago. I don’t think Green Bay is anointed yet and I’m not positive they are as good as everyone thinks, but I’m down to throw a little sugar on them to win by a FG to find out. Also I pictured Micah chasing down Flacco.. just saying. Green Bay *could* just be much, much better and in which case there wouldn’t be too much drama.

PS - favorites of 4+ points are an astounding 12-0 this season (assuming I heard that stat correctly) - that’s not sustainable, but trend wise - good to note that the better QBs seem to be finding wins early.

Pending: Kansas City Chiefs +3 & Baltimore Ravens +3 (-175) for 2 units

YTD: 4-1, +10.35 units

(In chronological order… GB lost by 3 as 7.5-8.5 point faves, Seahawks won by 31 at -7.5)

As for GB, mad at myself for that one! Mad at myself for not getting to the appropriate no touch based on my analysis. GB was up 10-0 with around 4 mins left, gave up a FG then Love threw a pick they returned to the 4… GB got ball back, drove down and :25 left, kicked a 42 yd FG - blocked and returned. Browns instead responded with a FG of their own. You know how the Bills have been finding ways to win and that’s what good teams do? The Packers blowing this game is super evidence to me that they are not an elite team yet. They were anointed way too quickly and like I said, they didn’t even win a road game yet. In the last post, I even changed the language of it from “I shouldn’t put my hard earned money on…” To: “can’t put more than one unit of my hard earned money on Green Bay.” I needed four separate games to go my way between Sunday and Monday, that’s a tough ask. With a strategy like this you need to be so intentional and this weekend I got away from it a little bit, made one too many plays.

Well my instincts to not trust GB were on… but not disciplined enough to just do a no touch there. Waste of 1 unit!

I’m just mad that I called it, talked about it, and still picked 1 survivor team on them and made one bet with them.. I mean I thought we may escape at the end, but that should’ve been a no touch and regardless of how Baltimore goes tomorrow, I’m cool with that play, this one I should’ve found a way not to play it.

PS Jax beat Hou 17-10 as 1.5 point faves and Tampa won by 2 against the Jets. Neither would’ve covered ATS, but both would’ve covered if teased.

YTD: 4-2, +6.85 units

KC won outright by 13, they were always in control. Great half of a bet that I was 0-2 on. Guess can’t force that pair. Balt got “upset” but idk if it was even an upset - I was super wrong about how good the Lions are. Lost by 14 at a -4.5 line. Their coordinators left? Who cares. They got their players back and week 1 might’ve been just an egg. They looked awesome in weeks 2 & 3. I had liked them for next week before they went and trucked Balt. Don’t regret the play unlike the GB one - I was just incorrect.

NFL 9/25 & 9/28/25

Seattle Seahawks +6.5 & Detroit Lions -2 (-141) for 4 units

Ready to make a couple plays this week! Last week our 3 unit play worked out nicely, it was heavy vig so that’s fortunate - but my 1 & 2 unit plays went down with the Ravens and Packers. I would’ve thought the best strategy for the teases would be taking high quality teams, but perhaps it’s middle tier teams in great positions. I want to learn from each week and last week, I really liked the Chiefs as a tease pair. I thought getting them to +3 and a must win situation was amazing, but I did have trouble finding its match. I thought the one unit with Green Bay was relatively safe and then, I did truly like Baltimore against the Lions – but I even remember thinking when I made the play that the value was probably just taking Baltimore against the spread -4.5 bc I expected touchdowns (and there were plenty in a 38-30 game). There was like a 52 point total and I was only able to bring the line from -4.5 to +3. I think improving my tease strategy will also include finding the situations where it makes less sense to tease it and more sense just to play it, if I really like it. I could’ve gotten funky and taking the Chiefs from -6 to -3 last week if I was concerned about something like that. I did truly believe they would win though.

So.. will I be making my first ATS play of the year this week? Yes I will and perhaps 4 units. It’s a situation where I love the play and team, but am unsure if a tease will maximize value. I’ll discuss next post.

Onto my first and largest tease of the week (there may be another 2 unit tease coming also).. Seattle’s defense is quite solid, I dig it and I think they could win outright but I really like them + a touchdown. I said “do I trust Sam Darnold” last week… same concerns still apply, but they gave up 17, 13, and 13 so far this year. They only lost in week one by four and I’m hoping Seattle can score more than 13 points this game. I looked long and hard at this same play with Seattle +7 and liked it even more, but it was -162. Paying an extra -21 on the overall parlay for just one hook on one leg and it’s not around -3 or +3? I really can’t justify that and playing it at +7 would be lazy, win or lose.

So why teasing this instead of ATS? With a total of only 43.5, that cushion is a nice number. And with Ravens losing by 8* on MNF, I like having almost a TD (a true +7 is a more pleasant viewing experience, but that’s not the only thing we’re here for) for Seattle. They’re playing against Kyler and I was watching / could barely watch as they almost blew the game to Carolina in week 2. I know Marvin Harrison is getting smack talked (bust?) so they’ll try to get him chances, but Seattles defense is nasty. Also I’m sorry to discuss the season ending Connor injury, AZ’s RB. That’s a blow to the confidence. Seattle has beaten AZ 7 straight times if I’m not mistaken scanning past few matchups. So if AZ does win this division matchup, it could be a close dogfight with some field goals. Seattle has impressed me this season and they could end up as this seasons Minnesota lol. Sam Darnold has been schedule browsing and going to the softest spots each year… PS Seattle was 7-1 on the road LY, AZ was 6-3 strong at home - but still. Seattle played well at Pittsburgh in week 2 and I do eyeball the validity of their wins… is Pittsburgh anything? Did the Saints blowout make things seem too easy or build confidence? I’m hoping confidence. But this was teetering on a 5 unit play, not 3 if I were to change the weight.

Detroit -3? I said in my last post new coordinators, doesn’t matter. They win against bad teams - especially at home and I’ll take it down to a FG in case they’re a little slow out of the gate after the big win against Baltimore. That said, Cleveland got their win too.. (against GB) so they won’t be absolutely scratching hungry like they were at home in week 3 winless (imo). Also Detroits team’s smash mouth style can travel well. They have an offense.. GB was extremely stagnant against Cle but in Det, the Lions will score. And I’m able to get them -2? I like it. Detroit should win by 7+, in my opinion.

At least one more play coming this week - to be posted in the coming day(s), possibly 2.

NFL 9/28 & 9/29/25

Los Angeles Rams -1.5 (-162) for 4 units
Minnesota Vikings +6.5 & Denver Broncos ML (-175) for 2 units
Minnesota Vikings +6.5 & Detroit Lions -2.5 (-175) for 2 units

Pending: Seattle Seahawks +7 & Detroit Lions -2 (-159) for 4 units

The good ol Los Angeles Rams. I was on them a bunch last year after they started like 1-4.. kinda like how KC this year is going to have some nice tease opportunities this year bc they need to be in specific games early to save their season (will be exhausted by playoffs), the Rams were that last year at times. So, I alluded to it in my previous post - and heck yeah I’m buying this specific hook at -3.5, this one could come down to a final kick. But I just do not believe the Colts are going into the Rams house, albeit not much home field advantage, and starting 4-0 this year.

The Rams are a high-quality team and you guys know how I feel about the NFC and I think there are flaws and imperfections in the conference, but what are we doing? I actually think Indianapolis is pretty good… but what do I mean by that? Good enough to win the AFC south! Beat up Houston (maybe) and Tennessee, not the Rams. Does that mean they should only be giving up ONLY a field goal when traveling to a true fringe Super Bowl contender? Why isn’t this -5.5-6? It’s because of human instinct.. even I, for a moment, was like ooh Colts + more than a FG against an inconsistent Rams team… but no.. no, absolutely not. We’re all rooting for Daniel Jones this year.. but not this week for me. Only 55% of public on the home chalk which tells me it’s not over the 65% eyebrow raise no touch. On a second site, I’m seeing 55% of bets on Colts +3. This is not a public bet and I suppose I understand the line, but this is just a different class matchup and the records up to this point (including a tough loss for Rams to Philly unlucky) give us a line opportunity we don’t normally get. In week 1, it may have been LA -6.5 and may again in eight weeks. Yes, the Colts are 3–0 but they beat a terrible Miami team, an overrated, Denver team, and another poor (still learning to win) team in Tennessee. I believe the Rams defense could give them a little bit of a wake up call and think there is value here. I’m certainly laying the lumber to put my money where my mouth is. Last point, why -1.5? Because I for sure was buying the hook to -3, that was -125. Wait, I’m seeing them at -195 Moneyline. To get from 3 to 1.5, I’m paying -37? I’m ok with that. -3 and -1.5 were the only two plays I considered there. Since it’s three half point steps and one includes off a -3. Moneyline doesn’t have the value. All plays this week, I made with what I believe is the best value line. The 6.5’s instead of 7’s, Lions -2, Rams -1.5 (all had big jumps in vig at the next step).

Onto the tease.. Minnesota and Carson Wentz. He keeps getting jobs! He’s one of the premier backups in the league and bro was a fringe MVP candidate back in 2017-18 before the injury, Nick Foles, the rest is history. Now he’s 32 and running/athleticism was never his leading attribute, but passing was and he looked damn good last week. I heard Cowherd say that “right now Wentz may be better for the Vikings than JJ, maybe not in 6 weeks” and frankly, I kind of agree. And then you have their opponent … Aaron Rodgers and an imo overrated 2-1 Steelers team who isn’t even rated that well to begin with! Rodgers blew it in London for me against the Giants a couple years ago, I’ll never forget it - so the idea of getting plus a freaking touchdown (for not crazy, crazy expensive) in what I expect to be an ugly, low scoring game on a neutral field with the team I believe is more likely to win (Vikings)… I’ll take it.

As for the Broncos.. honestly not going to over complicate it - I’m not sure this is a playoff level team at all anymore, regardless of how much that Colts loss hurt and the fact that they played their division rival Chargers tough at home. This is not a better team, but rather the same team as last year in my opinion… and even that team should be able to win at home in an (in my opinion) early must win game against Jake Browning and a terrible Bengals defense. Cin almost blew it against Cle week 1, needed miracles and vibes to beat Jax (barely) in week 2 and they’re not that impressive, and then last week was embarrassing against Minnesota. Two defensive touchdowns by Minnesota? Even more reason they’ll be vibing as they travel to London… but also Cincinnati with Joe Burrow, I had as a fringe Super Bowl team and definitely making a wildcard. Without him and seeing Browns outgain them by a ton, not be able to stop Trevor Lawrence at all.. and the Minnesota running game looking good… Cin’s run defense could get worked - leading to some easier throws for Bo Nix (bc I saw Den/Ten week 1, idk if Bo is actually that good). But Broncos have after this @ Eagles, if they go to 1-4 before their squishy middle part of their season, playoffs are over before they even get a shot. So this… this is a sneaky must win early for Broncos. It’ll be a very good effort from Denver at home; friendly reminder they were 6-2 at home last year and are 1-0 this year (0-2 on the road). Good home team and Jake Browning on the road, against a Payton coached team’s defense, will be tough. Kirk Cousins might be wearing a Bengals uniform this season. Browning is 29.. we have a pretty good idea by now how good he is.

PS. I added the two unit play for the Lions and Vikings. Super ironic after I spent all of last year talking about how ridiculously fraudulent the NFC south and the greater NFC was last year… But sometimes the oddsmakers secretly think some of the same things and we just need to be one step ahead on the way back. We have Aaron Rodgers post darkness retreat heading to London again, I feel perfectly comfortable bringing that up to a four unit side and I really like the Lions here, bringing them to a 6 (highest this year) unit side. My scale is 1 to 4 units, but I rarely will do a five unit above the scale play (I’ve only done one this year, the opening week Eagles/Broncos tease).. as for individual sides, I don’t know if I’ve ever established a max unit on a single half of a tease; so today I’ll establish that I can go one unit above whatever a “max” unit play is. This week, we’re using that with Detroit at home. This is the type of game they win and Cleveland is heading to London the following week, so they actually do have a little lull spot after a big victory last week. I did have to lay -2.5 instead of -2 because the line changed since I made my original play and the value shifted.

Entries Survivor Week 4 (past selections in order):
Team 1: Eliminated week 3, selecting GB (DEN, BAL, GB)
Team 2: Detroit Lions (DEN, BAL, BUF)
Team 3: Buffalo Bills (DEN, ARZ, SEA)
Team 4: Detroit Lions (PHI, BAL, BUF)
Team 5: Denver Broncos (PHI, BUF, SEA)

If I only had one entry (past selections in order): Buffalo Bills (DEN, BAL, SEA)

Pending: Minnesota Vikings +6.5 (9/28) & Denver Broncos ML (-175) (9/29) for 2 units

YTD: 7-2, +16.85 units

Seattle won on Thursday 23-20 against Arizona, I played them as part of a tease +6.5 (-141),* but Minnesota had absolutely no business covering +6.5 on Sunday.. but sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Carson Wentz played well enough to get me two garbage time touchdowns in the 4th and that’s it, but it included one on 4th down which got them the backdoor cover. They came from down 24-6 in the 4th to lose 24-21 as -2.5 favorites. Can’t trust those overseas games… they never had a chance to actually win. Idk if Pittsburgh is actually for real though yet. Detroit was -9.5 to -10 ish against Cle at home and won 34-10. Rams/Indy was nip and tuck, but after being down 20-13 in the 4th, Rams won 27-20 against Indy as -3.5 chalks, I was going to play them -1.5 or -3, based on the game, -1.5 feels right looking back. Indy is a very good team btw, kudos to Daniel Jones and them… that fumble was - woof - memorable. Rams were just a class above right now and today.