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Over & unders , fading
#728350 09/19/23 10:21 PM
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Ok, stick with me. It can sound confusing, but i'll try and describe it clearly. Haha.

Looking at games with total at 43 or less.
And if more than 55% of the betting trends(using V.I. as reference) are taking the under - then you fade and take the OVER.
In week 1 there was 5 games that fell into that situation.
Taking those 5 games over the total, went 0-5
In week 2, seven games fell into that situation, taking the over went 6-1


Looking at games with total of 47 or higher.
And if more than 55% of the betting trends are taking the over - then you fade and take the UNDER.
In week 1 there was 2 games that fell into that situation.
Taking those 2 games under the total, went 0-2
In week 2, two games originally fit the situation, and the fade went 1-1 , but another game fell into the situation b/c of line movement and/or betting trends. The fade went 0-1
So overall in week 2, the fade for that situation went 1-2

Does the fade the public on unders with totals of 43 or less work for week 3, or revert back to week 1 results?

Does the fade the public on overs with totals of 47 or higher keep being a bust in week 3 ??

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #728513 09/20/23 05:22 AM
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Time to play the Game
43 and under 6-6
47 and higher 1-4

If I understood that correctly the above is the fade record. I'm not a fan of trying to time a trend in reverse or continuing, it's just a recipe for disaster.

I'm guessing this is for the NFL and not NCAA.


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Re: Over & unders , fading
FREAK #728880 09/20/23 08:19 PM
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It's a fade on the totals of 43 or lower, or 47 and higher, when more than 55% of the betting trends are going with the 43 or lower, or the 47 and higher.

Example would be a total at 42, and it's dropped to 41.5, or maybe lower, and the betting trends show 55% or more are taking the under. Then take the over.

Week 1 that was a bust, all the games where the betting trends showed more than 55% on totals 43 or lower, if you faded and went over, you lost.

But week 2, it was a good week.

Now, for the 47 or higher totals and fading the under, IF more than 55% going by betting trends are going with the over, and you take the under - it hasn't worked out, but it's a small sample size for those games that fit that scenario.

And yes, NFL only.

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #728905 09/20/23 10:09 PM
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interesting, thanks for sharing

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #729525 09/22/23 10:28 PM
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0-1 to start the week. lolz

the fade is taking the OVER on totals of 43 or less, when more then 55% of the betting trends are going with the under. The other is taking the UNDER on totals of 47 or higher, when more than 55% of the betting trends are going with the over.

Last night the game total was right around 43(depends on when and where you got the line) and most betting trends showed 55% or more on the under. So the fade was to take the OVER. Missed the push by a point.

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #730510 09/25/23 03:52 AM
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Welp, Wk3 was a bust.

The 43 or lower situation scenario fade went 2-5 (as of now the one MNF game doesn't fall into the situation, and the other is out of range)

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 1-1


So, after 3 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 8-11 - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 2-4(possibly 2-5, depending on line movement and betting trends for 1 particular game)

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #733188 10/04/23 12:52 AM
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Wk4

The 43 or lower situation scenario fade went 1-4 (possibly 1-5, one game the numbers changed late to make it qualify, depending on numbers one used or got)

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 2-1(possible 1-1, one game fit the scenario, but then the trends changed late, depending on data used, so if that was included it was a win, but if emitted b/c outside the perimeters to fit the scenario/situation it wouldn't be a play, aka count)


So, after 4 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 9-16(possibly 9-17) - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 4-5(possibly 3-6, depending on line movement and betting trends for 2 particular games)

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #734755 10/09/23 04:42 AM
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Wk5

The 43 or lower situation scenario fade went 0-2

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 4-0


So, after 5 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 9-18(possibly 9-19) - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 8-5(possibly 7-6, depending on line movement and betting trends for 2 particular games)

MNF game doesn't fit into the scenario. Line is between 43.5 - 46.5

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #737069 10/17/23 04:12 AM
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Wk6

The 43 or lower situation scenario fade went 0-3-1(possible 1-3 depending on number one got for SF/Cle total)

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 2-1


So, after 6 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 9-21-1(possibly 10-22) - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 10-6(possibly 9-7, depending on line movement and betting trends for 2 particular games)

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #739350 10/24/23 09:25 PM
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The 43 or lower situation scenario fade went 4-3(possible 4-1 depending on whether playing 2 games that had switch in public betting trends on gameday. TB and Det games had been showing 55% or more on the under thur-sat, but on Sun it switched to showing over 60% and 70% on them, which would nullify them from being plays in the scenario/situation.)

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 1-0


So, after 6 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 13-24-1(possibly 14-23) - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 11-6(possibly 10-7, depending on line movement and betting trends for 2 particular games)

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #740797 10/30/23 01:27 AM
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Wk8

The 43 or lower situation scenario fade went 2-1(possible 2-2 depending on when someone played the GB total and what trends the % was at. Originally 55%+ were on the under, but then by Sun morning it flipped to 55%+ on over)

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 0-0 (Only the Den/KC total was barely within the perimeter, but then line movement and betting trends canceled it out)


So, after 8 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 15-25-1(possibly 16-25) - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 11-6(possibly 10-7, depending on line movement and betting trends for 2 particular games)

MNF total doesn't fit perimeters.

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #743670 11/09/23 09:08 AM
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Wk9

The 43 or lower situation scenario fade went 1-5-1

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 2-0


So, after 9 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 16-30-2(possibly 17-30-1) - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 13-6(possibly 12-7, depending on line movement and betting trends for 2 particular games)

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #743754 11/09/23 04:48 PM
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If I am tracking correctly, might be an oppty tonight.

Re: Over & unders , fading
BigBets #743903 11/10/23 12:06 AM
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Originally Posted by BigBets
If I am tracking correctly, might be an oppty tonight.
if you like the under.

The fade of going against the public trend for the games with totals lower than 43, hasn't fared well this season.

As of now, i'm seeing over 70% on the under 38.5

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #745529 11/14/23 09:51 PM
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WK10 recap

The 43 or lower situation scenario fade actually had a decent week, went 4-1(possibly 3-1 depending on if counting the Dallas game, for days leading up to game most betting trends showed 55% or better on the under, so the fade would be in play, but on game day the betting trends switched to showing more than 55% on the over, which would be a no play)

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 0-1


So, after 9 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 20-31-2(possibly 20-31-1) - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 13-7(possibly 12-8, depending on line movement and betting trends for 2 particular games.

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #747209 11/20/23 08:28 AM
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Wk11

The 43 or lower situation scenario fade went 1-3(maybe 1-2-1 depending on if some got the Den/Minn line 41 even, or lower would've been a win). But most lines were 41.5, 42, 42.5)

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 1-1


So, after 11 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 21-34-2(possibly 21-33-2) - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 14-8(possibly 12-8, depending on line movement and betting trends for 2 particular games.

MNF total doesn't fit into the scenario.

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #749791 11/28/23 11:45 PM
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Wk12

The 43 or lower situation scenario fade went 3-4

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 2-2


So, after 12 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 24-38-2(possibly 24-37-2) - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 16-10(possibly 14-10, depending on line movement and betting trends for 2 particular games.)

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #751637 12/06/23 12:04 AM
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Wk13

The 43 or lower situation scenario fade went 3-4

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 5-2


So, after 13 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 29-40-2(possibly 29-39-2) - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 17-12(possibly 15-12, depending on line movement and betting trends for 2 particular games.

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #753293 12/12/23 03:45 PM
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Wk14


The 43 or lower situation scenario fade went 5-0

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 1-0


So, after 14 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 34-40-2(possibly 34-39-2) - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 18-12(possibly 16-12, depending on line movement and betting trends for 2 particular games.

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #755365 12/19/23 11:47 PM
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Wk15

The 43 or lower situation scenario fade went 3-5

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 2-2


So, after 15 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 37-45-2(possibly 37-44-2) - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 20-14(possibly 18-14, depending on line movement and betting trends for 2 particular games.

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #757277 12/27/23 05:49 PM
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Wk16

The 43 or lower situation scenario fade went 4-2

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 1-2


So, after 16 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 41-47-2(possibly 41-46-2) - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 21-16(possibly 19-16, depending on line movement and betting trends for 2 particular games

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #758825 01/01/24 08:17 PM
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Wk17

The 43 or lower situation scenario fade went 1-3

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 1-1


So, after 17 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 42-50-2(possibly 42-49-2) - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 22-17(possibly 20-17, depending on line movement and betting trends for 2 particular games.

Re: Over & unders , fading
louisvillekid #760542 01/09/24 12:27 AM
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Wk18

The 43 or lower situation scenario fade went 3-2(possibly 2-2-1 depending on line for one game)

The 47 or higher situation scenario fade went 2-1


So, after 17 weeks the 43 or lower situation scenario fade is at 45-52-2(possibly 44-51-3) - and the 47 or higher situation scenario fade is at 24-18(possibly 22-18, depending on line movement and betting trends for 2 particular games.)

That concludes the NFL regular season on this situational fade trend.

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