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NFL 12/23, 12/24, & 12/25

3 Team Parlay: Buffalo -2.5, KC -2.5, & Phil -2.5 (-125) for 2 units
6 Play Parlay: Buffalo -3, KC -2.5, Phil -3, Den -1, Dal/Mia under 57,& SF +4 (+311) for 1 unit

YTD: 14-8, +1.02 units

PS Bills won by 2. First leg of both .. didn’t even get to play 2!

2 actually would’ve been a prob better value too fyi for a future read. Wins by 2 seem to happen more than 1
But they’re always semi flukey. Gotta roll w the best value. Aligning w the team goal (get to plus or -1 seems to work best).

12/25 NFL

Live KC +3.5 (-154) for 2 units

Eh I know better than to be playing live bets! Glad to reset and lay the lumber on the team that lost three straight.

12/25 NFL

Philadelphia Eagles -14 for 2 units

YTD: 14-10, -4.26 units

Bad finish to the season. Chasing and some bad bets in there too.

NFL 1/7/1024 & NCAAF 1/8/2024

4 Team Parlay: NFL Jax +4, TB +3, Buf +4, & NCAAF Michigan +3 (+227) for 1 unit
4 Team Parlay: NFL Jax +4, TB +3, Buf ML, & NCAAF Michigan ML (+329) for 1 unit

Wanted to bring back the style/strategy that brought me here - calm cool collected - I like the tease this afternoon, like the Bills and think Michigan is more likely to win than Washington. Small bit of chasing last week.. never win when I chase. 4 is a lot, but I do really like these must win teams being able to keep it close. Trevor, Baker, Josh, and John Harbaugh - good luck!

TB won 9-0, Jax was one inch short of a td down 8. Didn’t get to Buf or Mich.

YTD: 14-12, -6.26 units

At least went out w a bang.. helluva game

NFL 1/7 & NCAAF 1/8

Buffalo -3 & Michigan ML Parlay +201 for 1 unit

NFL 1/14

Buffalo -2.5 & Dallas -1.5 Parlay (-172) for 2 units

YTD: 15-12, -4.25 units

NFL 1/13 & 1/15

Cleveland -2.5 (-105) for 1 unit
Philadelphia -3 for 1 unit

And a bump up of the play above to 3 units. Odds I’ll count as the same, but I’m seeing it at -155 now.

YTD: 15-15, -11.56 units

What started as a promising season went off the rails. Got hooked to an excellent but inconsistent Bills team and the things that looked obvious, Buf didn’t get up for. I mean yes they rolled this game but it didn’t matter as the other thorn of the season Dallas choked to the Packers and Jordan Love who barely snuck in.

Browns (by Texans and a rookie qb) and Eagles (vs that same Bucs team I had last week) both got clobbbbbbered. And fyi both were public plays, got lazy with it - also line headed against us (sharps went the other way) on both.

The parlay system is too enticing. That Cowboys Bills play looks PERFECT on paper but it’s expensive when it loses and just gotta be so careful. Need to get back to the public fades I used to, betting favorites is too easy and it feels good when you place it.. that’s what the books want ya know? Draw you in.

If it looks too clean on paper… be careful is all. Parlays, I shot my shot, but the first like four or so weeks seem to be the only weeks that the value is there and teams (if you got them right) are what they are. In mid season it’s laziness, trap games, and parody. Too many moving pieces.

When I read this next year - just keep in mind to keep modifying and evolving the strategy.

FYI Balt & SF were 9.5 point faves and both were gonna win this. SF snuck it out by 3, Balt rolled. Those teams off a bye do well in that div round. And -3 wasn’t the value here I guess at -129, -155 would’ve been both -2.5

1/28 NFL

Balt & SF ML (-111) for 2 units
Balt/KC Over 44 for 1 unit
SF/Det Under 52.5 for 1 unit

PS I was prob influenced by the Balt -3.5 GOY for Indian Cowboy.. I know better than that… stick w my own picks but I still did like Balt here. No dice.

YTD: 15-18, -15.98 units

PS your instincts on totals aren’t very good. Line was shooting up total in SF/Det. And don’t forget narratives usually win.. Balt wasn’t gonna get calls that night. Detroit felt good but nah in reality. Good teams beat bad teams and the best players win the biggest games

NBA 5/12/2024

Indiana -5.5 for 2 units
Denver ML +122 for 2 units
Den/Min Under 204.5 for 2 units

YTD: 2-1, +2.1 units

Stick to sides buddyyyy and yours only. I took those three at a +749 parlay and it looked juicy but.. those experts are even wrong plenty. The two sides would’ve been +323. I rly liked those sides but the total was def at least a lil expert influenced.. gotta trust your own instincts. I did like the play tho no doubt. Anyway - Indiana shot bad last game and won / Knicks banged up. The killled them! And the champs aren’t losing to minny.. thought about their +175 series play too. Shooting was crazy tho.