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4 units Illinois +9 -115

It’s going to take Illinois’s best game to knock off the best team in basketball. The good news is that Shannon jr is one of the best guards in college basketball. The public will be on UConn and I feel this line is a bit inflated towards the huskies. 8.5 pts is a lot considering the circumstances. I’m buying the half to 9 and taking the dog.

GL

After being tied 23-23 with 1:30 left in the first half, the huskies put together an amazing 30-0 run. They would have a hard time repeating that vs a d3 school. There is no doubt who the favorite is going forward. Fascinated to see the match up with Bama. UConn will feed in the paint, but can their perimeter defense matchup? I think Purdue matches up best with UConn, but they will have their hands full with Tennessee and then potentially the best from the Acc.

3 units Tenn/Purdue over 147.5
4 units NC state +7.5

GL

4 units NC state +9.5
3 units Bama/uconn over 160.5

GL

I think we have to ride with the best team and the best center in the last ncaa hoops contest of the year.

4 units UCONN -7

GL

No doubt the best team won. UCONN just squeezed the life out of Purdue in the second half. Their depth and guard size was the difference in this one. Nice end to a profitable season.

NCAAB Final Record

71-58 +21.05 units

Pipe’s Picks are back for the mlb season. Now that we have some stats on teams, umps, extra…we can take a look of my bases system. The premise is fairly simple. Step 1 We look for a strong umpire bias. This could be overs, unders, home era or away era teams. If an umpire shows no bias we pass the game. For example, if an umpire is 5-1 towards hitting over the total runs behind the plate this season, we look at his next game. 2. We then analyze the game this umpire is calling. This includes pitching match up, team stats, win loss records, weather conditions, and are either of the teams streaking (won or loss 3+ in a row). I look at all this data and assign a unit rating to the play. For example, an under umpire, with two good starting pitchers, in a cold weather game with two teams with bad offensive stats checks several boxes and would be a big play. If only one or two data points match then the unit play would be less.

Tonight’s selections to follow…

4 units wash at Tex over 8
3 units KC at Toronto over 7.5
2 units Mets rl -125

GL

1-1-1 to start, back tomorrow with more

3 units brewers/cubs under 8.5
3 units Clev -1.5 runs +145
3 units Rangers/royals over 8.5
4 units dbacks ml -130

GL

Looking forward to another college football season. Will be looking for some nice value in the opening games!

NCAA Football

First pick of the season:

4 units Georgia Tech +13 vs FSU

On paper it’s easy to see the public taking the Noles at less than 14 pts. The Noles are coming off an undefeated regular season and ACC title. They were left out of the playoffs, and decided to opt out of their bowl game vs Uga. The result was a beat down. FSU is replacing the majority of their starters, and brought in DJ oops to run the offense.

The jackets had a winning season for the first time since the triple option days. Head coach key enters his third season at the helm. Jackets are returning key starters on both sides of the ball including their starting qb Haynes King.

This game is in Ireland to kick off week zero. With all the continuity for the jackets, I think they show up ready to play. I just don’t believe fsu will be in sync with so many new faces. I think the talent edge will play out in the end, but I’m betting on this one being close until the end. Take the points!

College football is back. Good luck to everyone this season! Glad we jumped on GT and the points at 13 before the public bet it down to 10.5. As this point it seams GT has been over bet. Not a unit play, but I put in a 6 pt teaser with FSU -4.5 and Smu -21 to make a chance for hitting a middle.

Added play:

3 units Smu first half -16.5

The mustangs are a trendy pick to make waves in the Acc. I actually think the opposite. Smu feasted on lower comparison last year. As the season goes on, I think they will struggle with the tougher competition in the Acc. I doubt they have the depth to hold on. They open up at Nevada who is just not very good. I see them jumping out early Against this lesser foe. I do not want to worry about a back door cover with the reserves mopping around in the season half, so I’m opting for the first half play. Take Smu -16.5 in the first half.

GL

NCAAF 1-1 (+.9 units)

Football is back. Here are the first 3 plays on the card.


3 units Penn st @ West Virginia under 51.5

Is this the year James Franklin gets over the hump? Drew Allard returns for his third year, Penn states defense has some of the best linebackers in the country, and the schedule shapes up favorably. This is not an easy opening road game for the Nitty Lions. After reviving the Mountaineer program last year with. 9-4 record, Neal Brown has silenced the critics. The center piece of this team is returning Qb Greene, who emerged as breakout player. With the majority of the returning cast and a few key portal additions, West Virginia had a chance to be a contender. As far as this matchup, West Virginia will have revenge on its mind, and Morgantown will be rocking. The problem is Penn st is but to stop the run, and will dare Greene to beat them through the air. I’m not convinced Penn st will be rolling on offense yet with a new oc, and I have to see it before I believe it with Allard. I see this as being a low scoring, tight game for 3 quarters. And if penn st turns the ball over West Virginia can pull this off. Because he’s f this Penn st will be content on running the ball and getting out with a win. The public has bet this down to 8, so for value I lean Penn st, but I can see a late score late in each direction. I trust defense more than offense, especially early. I’m taking the under in this physical matchup.


4 units Florida +3 buying the hook

This game features two coaches that are under a ton of pressure to win entering year three. Mario is a great recruiter, but can he win a close game with good decision making ( See GT game last year)? There’s no doubt which team has the best talent. The Cain’s hired the best Qb mercenary money could buy in Cam Ward. In addition to the Qb, they also filled several holes in their roster via the transfer portal. Sunbelt Billy is a slow start away from the hot seat in Gainesville. The scheduling gods did the gators no favors this year…brutal ending with Uga, at Texas, lsu, ole miss, and at FSU. The good news is returning QB Graham Mertz, who is coming off an impressive first season with Florida. The Gators need him to pull this off. Poor Florida has no chance…at least that’s what the numbers on paper say. Did you know the Gators are 41-1-2 straight up in home openers in the swamp? You know that place will be rocking Saturday afternoon. I worry that similar to Florida state last week, the canes will still be figuring out how to play together as a team. Also, Cam Ward was very turnover prone last season. This will be the hardest road game start of his career. If this game was in late October, I think the canes might be a 10 point favorite. I’m riding with the wounded cat backed into the corner…Give the gators at home. I’m buying the hook to +3 .

3 units Texas Am -3 vs Notre Dame

This game screams rock fight. The strength for both teams is on the defensive side. The fighting Irish brought in experienced Duke qb, Reilly Leonard, to lead them to the playoff. The good news is the Notre dame defense is loaded with NFL talent, the bad news is that their oline and receiver talent is piss poor. Leonard will be have to but the team on his back. On the other side Am returns Qb Conner Wegman. Injuries have prevented Conner from reaching his potential…so far. New head coach Mike Elko inherits a roster that has plenty of blue chip talent. In fact, Texas am has always had the talent, Jimbo just could not develop it. Elko is the perfect fit long term for the Aggies, the question is can he team be disciplined enough to win a close game. I think so. ND is better on paper, but is a road dog…seems the boys in the desert know something. Situationally this is a tough spot on the road, with a new quarterback vs the 12th man. I think Elko is the better coach, and the kicker is that he was the coach for Leonard last year. I think he takes advantage of Reilleys weaknesses just enough, and AM finds a way to win this one. Play AM -3

More to come…

I cleaned up the duplicate posts. There's never a need to repost if you get the moderation message. It will post and show as the time you posted. :) Just have some patience and it will ultimately show as I'm the one that has to approve it.

I appreciate the work you've put into this. This in my book pardon the pun, is what it's all about win or lose. You're putting the time in to give reasoning behind your selections. I really do like this.

Your thought process on these games for week 1 is spot on and I'd be surprised if the three above don't sweep!

Keep up the great work, I'll be watching a little more closely.

FREAK

Freak, thank you for the advice and kind words! Appreciate all your efforts on this forum. I’ll be posting all football season, and hopefully helping the readers win some cash!

Going to stay disciplined early and keep just the 3 selections. For now.

3 leans I like today in a parlay:

Ohio +17.5
Miami of Ohio +3.5
Hawaii +14

Off to a slow start. Seemed like most of the brand name teams covered double digit spreads or won in tough road situations easily. A good weekend for the casuals. Will be looking for some value this weekend before lines get tighter as these teams start to show their true abilities.

NCAAF 2-4 (-4 units)

5 units Nebraska -6.5
4 units GT -3
4 units +17 buying half
3 units Tenn -10

Out of town so I do not have time for normal writeups

Correction…4 units App st +17 buying the hook. Left off the team

NCAAF 4-6 (-4.9units)

We did hit on our 5 star, but picked the wrong side with GT and App st. Now that we are couple weeks in We can focus in on the week to week situational set ups that I lean on with my selections

Friday

4* Kansas -9 vs UNLV

Kansas returns home to dust itself off after a hard fought loss at Illinois. Also though unlv has played well and is improved, this is a bad spot on the road. Kansas lost because it did not match up well with the Illini in the trenches, this week should be a more favorable matchup for their oline. Look for QB Daniels to bounce back in a big performance. The cherry on top is that head coach Lance Leopold is 31-11-1 ats at home and 9-1 ats his last 10 games coming off a loss as a favorite. Rock chalk…