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8/1 Statistical Advantages
#805564 07/21/24 11:24 PM
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Re: 8/1 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #807524 08/01/24 01:56 AM
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British Columbia vs Winnipeg

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of British Columbia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
British Columbia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 8 games
Winnipeg is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home


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Re: 8/1 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #807548 08/01/24 11:18 AM
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New England
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MLB Trends

National League
Miami (40-68) @ Atlanta (58-49)
— Meyer is 2-0, 3.00 in four starts.
— Marlins are 3-1 in his starts.
— over 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1
— He gave up a run in 6 IP, in his one start vs Atlanta.
— Marlins are 8-5 in their last 13 games.
— Miami is 18-34 on road.
— Marlins are 4-13 in road series openers.
— over 18-6-1 last 25 games.
— scored run in first inning: 25-108
— record in first 5 innings: 35-63-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3-4

— Morton is 0-2, 7.08 in his last four starts.
— Atlanta is 5-10 in his last 15 starts.
— over 5-3 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 5-19
— record in first 5 innings: 8-7-4
— He is 13-6, 4.14 in 25 starts vs Miami
— Braves are 4-1 in their last five games.
— They’re 30-21 at home.
— Braves are 11-6 in home series openers.
— under 22-11 last 33 games
— scored run in first inning: 28-107
— record in first 5 innings: 50-42-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2.2-3.1

St Louis (56-52) @ Cubs (52-58)
— Gray is 1-1, 6.75 in his last four starts.
— St Louis is 6-2 in his road starts.
— over 6-1 last seven starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-19
— record in first 5 innings: 11-6-2
— He is 5-4, 2.86 in 13 starts vs Chicago
— Cardinals are 3-1 in last four games.
— They’re 27-27 on road.
— Cardinals lost their last six series openers.
— over 5-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 23-108
— record in first 5 innings: 41-49-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-4-2

— Imanaga is 1-0, 2.52 in his last four starts.
— Chicago is 14-4 in his starts.
— under 12-6
— allowed run in first inning: 1-18
— record in first 5 innings: 9-4-5
— He gave up a run in 7 IP, in a June 15 start vs St Louis.
— Cubs are 6-9 in their last 15 games.
— They’re 27-25 at home.
— Cubs are 4-9 in last 13 home series openers.
— under 9-3 last dozen games
— scored run in first inning: 23-110
— record in first 5 innings: 43-50-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3-4

American League
Baltimore (65-44) @ Cleveland (65-42)
— Rogers was 1-0, 3.80 in last four starts with Miami.
— Marlins were 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 6-21
— record in first 5 innings: 6-13-2
— He gave up a run in 5 IP, in his one start vs Cleveland.
— Baltimore won four of last five games.
— Orioles are 31-19 on road.
— Orioles are 11-5 in road series openers.
— over 12-2 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 28-109
— record in first 5 innings: 59-39-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 7.2-2.1-3

— Lively is 1-2, 2.70 in his last three starts.
— Guardians are 9-4 in his last 13 starts.
— under 3-0 last three
— allowed run in first inning: 1-18
— record in first 5 innings: 11-5-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Baltimore.
— Cleveland is 6-2 in its last eight games.
— Guardians are 33-15 at home.
— Guardians are 11-5 in home series openers.
— under 12-3 last 15 games
— scored run in first inning: 28-107
— record in first 5 innings: 50-42-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4-x

Kansas City (60-49) @ Detroit (52-57)
— Lugo is 2-2, 3.12 in his last four starts.
— Kansas City is 8-3 in his road starts.
— under 6-0 last six starts
— allowed run in first inning: 2-21
— record in first 5 innings: 13-5-3
— He is 2-0, 1.38 in two starts vs Detroit.
— Royals won their last three games.
— Royals are 24-27 on road
— Royals won their last six series openers.
— over 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 30-109
— record in first 5 innings: 51-42-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-2-2

— Montero is 0-3, 9.42 in his last three starts.
— Detroit is 3-3 in his starts.
— over 5-1
— allowed run in first inning: 3-6
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3-2
— He blanked Cleveland for 6.1 IP July 8th.
— Detroit is 3-7 in its last ten games.
— Tigers are 25-28 at home.
— Tigers are 6-11 in home series openers.
— over 8-4 last 12 games
— scored run in first inning: 33-109
— record in first 5 innings: 43-48-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 9-6.1-x

Interleague Game
Colorado (39-70) @ LA Angels (47-60)
— Feltner is 0-4, 5.02 in his last five starts.
— Colorado is 3-12 in his last 15 starts.
— under 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 9-20
— record in first 5 innings: 8-11-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Anaheim.
— Rockies lost six of last eight games.
— They’re 15-41 on road.
— over 8-3 last 11 road games
— scored run in first inning: 30-109
— record in first 5 innings: 40-55-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-4.1-2

— Fulmer is 0-0, 3.68 in three starts.
— Angels are 2-1 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
— This is his first start against Colorado
— Angels lost four of last six games.
— They’re 24-33 at home.
— under 6-3 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 24-108
— record in first 5 innings: 36-61-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6.1-3-4

Re: 8/1 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #807549 08/01/24 11:25 AM
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New England
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NFL Hall of Fame Game Betting Trends

Last year’s upset win by the Browns over the Jets extended a strong run by underdogs. Since 2013, they are on a 5-4 SU and 6-2-1 ATS surge. Prior to that, favorites had been on a 6-1-2 ATS run.

The last two Hall-of-Fame games pitted AFC teams against one another. Prior to that, in three AFC-NFC matchups, AFC teams went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. The last NFC team to beat an AFC team in this game was Minnesota, who edged Pittsburgh 14-3 in 2015.

The team that has led the HOF game at halftime has gone just 2-3-1 over the last six contests. Depth is as important as any other factor, particularly at the quarterback position.

This is a game that is usually assumed to be an Under wager, despite the extremely low total. That said, Overs have been the winning totals wager in back-to-back years, following up a nine-game stretch in which Under was 7-2.

In the seven HOF games since 2015, the line has moved off the opening number, and it has gone towards the favorite six times. That team is just 2-3-1 ATS in that span. Furthermore, the HOF game seems to be becoming a game in which the books take from the bettors, as those following line moves would be just 3-6-1 ATS in the last 10 opportunities. Most locales had Chicago as a 1.5-point favorite out of the gate, and the line has since moved to 2. Thus, it would appear the betting public is backing the Bears here.

Bettors have not been sharp lately when moving totals in HOF games either, going 2-6 in the last eight times the total moved prior to kickoff. The 2024 total has moved towards the Over (31.5 to 32.5), perhaps indicating that savvy bettors should opt for an Under.

The first half has averaged 16.0 points in the last seven Hall of Fame games

Re: 8/1 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #807550 08/01/24 11:25 AM
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Backups to Start

Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans said “We’ll see” when asked Monday if C.J. Stroud would suit up. Assuming the reigning NFL Rookie of the Year doesn’t play, the starting nod will presumably go to backup David Mills. Veterans Case Keenum and Tim Boyle should get most of the work under center.

The same seems true for the Bears and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, who replaces Justin Fields as the quarterback of the future for the Windy City franchise. Head coach Matt Eberflus plans to instead give starting reps to Tyson Bagent, with Brett Rypien and undrafted rookie Austin Reed backing him up

Re: 8/1 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #807551 08/01/24 11:32 AM
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CFL

BC/Winnipeg


Early money has come in on the Lions, shifting the spread from -3.5 to -4.5.

The Leos are coming off a bye after losing a nail-biter to the Stamps in Week 7 but they are still 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six games.

The Bombers are just 1-7 ATS but oddsmakers are adjusting. They lost outright as a fave six times this season but almost covered as a 1.5-point dog last week.

Collaros has posted a passer rating above 110 in each of the last three years but he has the lowest rating (81.8) in the league among qualifying QBs this season.

The Bombers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall while the Lions are 9-2 ATS in their previous 11 contests following a loss

Re: 8/1 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #807562 08/01/24 01:41 PM
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MLB

Wednesday, July 31

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Trend Report
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Miami vs Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

Toronto vs Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Toronto's last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Baltimore's last 9 games
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Toronto

NY Yankees vs Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Yankees

Minnesota vs NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games
NY Mets is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
NY Mets is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing Minnesota

Kansas City vs Chi White Sox
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Kansas City's last 11 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chi White Sox's last 11 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chi White Sox's last 13 games when playing at home against Kansas City

Atlanta vs Milwaukee
Atlanta is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Atlanta is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games at home

Texas vs St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of St. Louis's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games

Washington vs Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games at home

Seattle vs Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games at home

Chi Cubs vs Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chi Cubs
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

Pittsburgh vs Houston
Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh

LA Dodgers vs San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games
San Diego is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
San Diego is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games

Colorado vs LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Colorado's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing at home against Colorado
LA Angels is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Colorado

Oakland vs San Francisco
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Last edited by Nicky; 08/01/24 01:49 PM.

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