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I'm back with my 10pt teaser plays. A very successful post for the last several years.

TN +14

I think this is too many points to grab against a rookie QB. TN will be an improved team this year and their defense should be able to keep in lock step with Chicago's defense. I see a low scoring game and could be way wrong but 14 is too much to cover.

AZ +16.5

This is a fade of Buffalo and a play on Arizona all at the same time. The Buffalo offense will rely on the legs of Allen which always ends up a disaster of him getting hurt somewhere along the way during the season. The AZ O should be vastly improved with Connor, Murray and Harrison leading the way. Their defense will still be a problem but they should hang in the game to the end. I remember the last time I had these thoughts and Buffalo mopped the floor with AZ, hopefully not a repeat.

LAR +14.5

This one to me stood out the most and was the cornerstone of this wager. I see another classic game today and come on who doesn't like seeing the QB matchup once again. Great way to close the night and go to bed on a high for winning. I kept my reasoning short, I'm swamped and KO is less than 30 away.

I'll be tracking my teasers in a season long thread instead of a weekly post in Bet The House.

These have been historically $$$$

I'll move my Bet The House post here and give commentary.

None of these games were ever in doubt in this teaser. TN and AZ both blew 17-3 leads and LAR had the lead 20-17 with 2 minutes left. Unfortunately all of these teams lost. AZ was the only one to cover the regular spread and the Rams lost in OT as DET scored a TD on the first drive.

Record 1-0 +100

Nice hit!

Wow I missed this post. Won't miss it again. Nice hit.

Week 2

Three Team Ten Point Teaser

NO +16 - I think the current line is an over reaction to what took place last week with Dallas winning at Cleveland. I watched both games last week. Carolina is still really bad even with all the upgrades. Dallas took advantage of a weak Cleveland team. Until Cleveland moves on from Watson he will continue to be there albatross. He has robbed Cleveland of not only money but has set this franchise back for a long time. I'll take my chances of not getting beat by three scores.

TB +17.5 - Mayfield coming off his likely career best game, is it a sign for more to come? Week 1 Campbell played tight and didn't take as many chances as he did last year. Granted it's only one week but there was a massive change in philosophy. I think this may be a lot closer than the current 7.5 line and will gladly add ten to it.

LAR +11 - Ask yourself just one question. Who could AZ beat by 12 points? Would the Rams name come up? To even see AZ favored in this game is a gift to add ten to it.

Good Luck

Good Luck My Friend!!!

Good looking teaser...bol Freak!

I guess the Rams were a team that AZ could beat by 12 or more points. The other two won their game STRAIGHT UP.

0-1 -130

Overall 1-1 -30

Not sure what happened to my post with last week teaser play which was a winner and I'm miffed to how it's gone!

For this weeks play it starts with Thursday Night

Dallas +5 - This is the kind of team the Cowboys need to play to right the ship. While the Giants ransacked Cleveland, I've said all along Cleveland isn't a good team as long as Watson is the QB and on the team. He is toxic.

LA Rams +13 - Catching a struggling team that just can't get out of it's own way. Last time I used the Rams they were run over by the Cardinals, do I dare say who can Chicago beat by 14?

SF Pick - Simple call to use against New England. If New England goes to SF and wins SU I deserve to lose. That win over Cincinnati doesn't look so great anymore does it?

Let's get that paper!

Needed the extra points with the Rams but in the end a winner.


2-1 +70

Really 3-1 +170 I still have no idea what happened to my post from week 3 :(

Thanks for these. Missed last week but I will be back in action this week.

Week 5

Three Team 10 Point Teaser

Baltimore +7.5 - I love Baltimore at -2.5 why wouldn't I at +7.5. Baltimore is the all around better team.

SF +3 - This and the next team are just a no brainer.

Seattle +3 - As with SF, both teams are vastly superior and this venue for an east coast team is a tough place to play.

Running out of time for a big write up but this should be a bankroll booster.

2-2 -60

Week 6

Going to keep it with just the play today as time is very limited.

JAX +11
PHI +1
NYG +13.5

2-3 -190

10 PT TEASER

DET +12
PHI +7
PIT +12

I see a tight back and forth type game with the DET/MN.
PHI + anything is a bonus, they should win this SU
PIT defense and a lack of a true offense from the Jets makes this an easy call.

JAX cost me last week in what was a dismal performance that made Williams look like an MVP. Bears are still frauds.

Analysis was spot on for every game and delivered a winner...........

3-3 -90

Rare Teaser with NCAAF mixed in with NFL

3-3 -90 or 4-3 +10 depending on how you look at it.

LSU +11 - Think they win this SU but Kyle Field at night is still a tough place to play in the SEC
Wisconsin +16.5 - I still believe that Penn St is a paper tiger. How they made it this far up the ratings is beyond me. This is a statement game for WI and Fickell. Likely his biggest game as a coach at WI.
Detroit -1.5 - If they lost at home or only win by 1 over TN at home, this deserves to lose. Not a reason to overthink this one.

3-4 -220

DET -2 Same reasoning as yesterday.
PHI +12.5 - Believe wrong team is favored here.
DEN -1 - Another one of those, if they lose SU, I deserve to lose.

4-4 -120

Never in doubt.

For week 9 let's go with the following:

AZ +8
IND +15.5
KC +1

It took the market a while to make AZ the favorite and for good reason. Look at who they've played compared to CHI. When this line came out I jumped all over AZ as the dog. I'll take the TD+ although I'd be surprised if I need it.

IND they made the right decision to put Flacco as the SQB, he gives them a much better chance of winning and doesn't take the insane chances that Richardson takes. I still believe that Richardson was the wrong choice for IND and so far it's played out as such. This doesn't mean he won't be a good QB in the future but he has a lot to overcome. MN may be in the midst of their season fade, can see this as a FG game.

KC pretty simple choice, they keep rolling along on MNF.

Pretty spot on except IND was 8 points but still a one score game. Arizona won big and KC while needing OT did what they do, win.........

5-4 -20

Week 10

PIT +12
SF +3.5
AZ +12

Running way behind today and don't have time for the usual write up but I don't see PIT or AZ being smashed and who wouldn't want SF +3.5 against TB. I can see PIT and AZ winning SU.

Let's get that paper!

Winner

6-4 +80

PIT and AZ won SU as predicted. SF didn't cover the game spread but won the game. It didn't hurt to have the 3.5 cushion.

Week 11

Got a real doozy of one for you today............

BAL +7 - Typically very close games in this series and I trust Jackson way more than I do Wilson. While I respect what Pittsburgh has done so far this season, I like what Baltimore has done a lot more. Granted they appear to leak oil in the fourth quarter but this is such a bitter rivalry I see a tight game and don't see Pittsburgh winning by more than 7 if they do somehow win.

KC +12 - Mahomes as a dog, the Chiefs as a dog, Reid as a dog........ I get why Buffalo is favored, hot team, home field, but we haven't seen the best out of Chiefs so far this season. We'll see if they put it all together in a statement game for both teams. KC defense is going to cause issues for Bills OL. May see a lot of see Josh run in this one but it's likely going to the team with the ball last that wins.

SF +3.5 I'll take the triple cross over of 3, 0 and 3 on the other side. I can't see the Seahawks hanging with the 49ers offense. Smith is no slouch but this team is in disarray and running into a physical team like the 49ers won't help.

It's not often you get three of the leagues best teams getting points like this and at this point of the season this is likely one of the strongest plays to date. You know what to do.

I told you it was a real doozy. All three teams lost SU but due to the teaser points they all covered producing a winner.

Winner

7-4 +180

Just a little fodder for the thread.........

My personal ranking of how I see things.........

1. BUF 9-2
2. KC 9-1
3. DET 9-1
4. GB 7-3
5. BAL 7-4
6. HOU 7-4

Bubbling

MN, PIT, PHI all 8-2

First the bubblers, I'm still not sold on MN period. They have vastly overachieved so far this season and I see a regression coming. PIT & PHI have feasted on the 27th and 29th hardest schedule. In other words they've had it easy so far. We'll find out more about PIT as they continue their division games. PHI has high expectations and they've feasted on lightweights as they should.

The top 6 a few surprises in GB and HOU, I give these teams a lot more weight based on their 7th and 8th hardest schedule. To be where they are is really good. They both still have young QB's and have been erratic at times but have a lot of room for improvement. The sky's the limit for these two teams and they will be dangerous outs in the playoffs.

I still view BAL as a team that has huge upside still. They haven't put it all together as of yet this season and will the real Lamar please show himself. Detroit of the top 6 has the weakest schedule ranked 17th hardest.

I think we may have seen the peak of Buffalo and we haven't really got to the point where KC turns it on. I think they are somewhat going through the motions and doing just enough until it really matters. That's when this team will peak yet again this year. They are going to be hard to beat. Nothing from the NFC South or NFC West......... suckville right now.......... we shall see who if anyone makes a run late to end the season.

Week 12

Pretty boring schedule this week, there really isn't a game outside of AZ/SEA that has truly peaked my interest.

KC -.5 - KC won't exert a lot here but will do enough to get the win. Thought about CAR +20.5 but they just as easily can be blown out.

MIA +3 - this is more of an anti NE play than anything else. MIA has been a house of horrors over the years for them and I see a potential blowout here. Why not take the +3?

AZ +10 - I've been bullish on AZ this year and it's paid off. Coming off a bye and granted it's a place that they haven't had much success at... however SEA coming off a physical SF game and upset win. Looking for the emotional let down here as well. I like AZ chances of winning SU but +10 should do the trick.

Until next week, have a great Thanksgiving holiday!

This bet is a winner for me but only at 50% of a full unit. Everygame reduces ties in teasers and this basically became a -200 wager instead of -130

Depending on where you wager this could be graded a winner at reduce odds such as this, a push or a loss. I received the win and will grade it as I bet it. What sucks is the Cardinals missed a chip shot FG at the end or none of this would be up in the air. Glad I use Everygame for my teasers and suggest you do as well.



Reference no. xxxxxxxxx
Placed 11/24/2024 7:31:02 AM
Type Spread AF 10.0

Status Win
Odds -130
Stake 520.00
Return 780.00

11/24/24 11:02 AM
NFL Lines Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Spread Kansas City Chiefs -0.5 (-10.5)
11/24/24 2:25 PM
NFL Lines Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Spread Arizona Cardinals +10 (0)
11/24/24 11:02 AM
NFL Lines New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Spread Miami Dolphins +3 (-7)

8-4 +230

Week 13

Happy Thanksgiving to all the readers and followers of this thread.

Let's get my updated rankings out of the way first.

1. BUF 9-2
2. KC 10-1
3. DET 10-1
4. GB 8-3
5. BAL 8-4
6. PHI 9-2

Bubbling

MN 9-2

HOU dropped from #6, PHI enters as #6

MN remains the only bubbler as PIT fell off the list.

Now on to the teaser play.........

Most of you are expecting DET today as the free square and they likely are. I do like CHI just a little but not enough to even tease. After all there is a potential for blow out here.....

I will be using another Thanksgiving game instead..........

GB +6.5 - This has everything to do with GB and they should be able to handle Tua and company in what might be a tougher game than expected.

AZ +13.5 - Going back to AZ even after they cost me a full payout last teaser. Blame that on the K. I'm still not 100% sold on this MN team and I expect a much better performance from AZ. They disappointed last week and many will blow them off but I think they might be able to win here SU.

PHI +13 - Give me this all day. This should be a great game and like AZ, I think PHI has an opportunity to win SU. Looking forward to this match up and hopefully the final piece to another winning ducat.

Old timers will understand ducat, young hipsters, not so much!

Good Luck with your plays.

Winner 9-4 +330

As easy as it gets and six straight winners...........

Short schedule this week so I'm calling an audible and going with a two team 6 point teaser today!

PIT PK - In a word Payback!
MIA -.5 - NYJ are over matched here.

Lay it at -110

Took a Miami comeback down 23-15 to force OT and win but this got home and cashed at the cage.

Seven straight weeks of winners.

10-4 +430

Thanks, Freak! I’ve followed them all, great job!

Updated Rankings

1. DET 12-1
2. KC 12-1
3. BUF 10-3
4. PHI 11-2
5. PIT 10-3
6. MN 11-2

We have two top six ranking teams matching up this week. 1 vs 3 and 4 vs 5. Should be an interesting 4PM window of games later today.

I know I've been successful on the teasers and on a nice long streak but don't over bet it if you are tailing along. I'm not suggesting I'm planning on losing but we aren't going to get rich in one wager and we certainly don't want to go broke either.

Here's the 10 pt teaser for this week.

CIN +5 - Turning -5 to plus 5 is going thru -3, 0 and +3 and we get a team that's hot on the offensive side and sure they leak on the defensive side, but I just can't see TN being able to match point for point here and if some how TN would win this game it won't be more than a TD.

MIA +13 - Yes, HOU is coming off a bye but they had a lot to work on as this team was way out of sync for several games. I don't think you can fix that in a week and beat a MIA team by two touchdowns. MIA did struggle with a NYJ squad at home the week before needing OT and delivering a win for us, I just see a much more focused effort here as they aren't out of the playoff race quite yet. In Tua we trust once again this week.

PIT +15.5 - This is going to be an interesting match up. PIT will focus on shutting down Barkley and they have the defensive front to wreak havoc on top of it. PIT will need Russ to keep cooking as he has improved nearly every week. I looked back at his play level in DEN to what he is doing here in PIT and it's night and day. Why you ask, coaching style and a front seven that gives him the time to go through his progressions and not always under siege as he was in DEN. If PHI wins by 3 scores we deserve to lose this but I have a sneaky suspicion this is going to the wire one way or the other. Should be tight, low number of possessions and the team with the ball last likely wins.

Good luck and I'll meet you at the cashiers cage.

It was a slow start for CIN down 14-7 but they kicked it into gear and won going away. If you look at the box score you would think TN would've won the game. The teams accounted for 10 turnover and 26 penalties. TN had one more FD, four more TY and three more drives and lost by 10 and it was 16 until the final play TD. A rather strange ITS look at this game.

MIA is another ITS winner yet still lost 20-12. HOU only had 12 FD and 181 TY on 50 plays. MIA had the ball nearly seven more minutes. They ran 62 plays, had 18FD but only had 224 TY. So what killed them? 4 turnovers. In Tua we trust had 2 horrific INT's and his 3rd and final was a defensive gem as the defender stole the ball from Hill on the final drive on a sideline route. This was definitely a game that MIA could've and should've won. While it shows HIOU winning by 8, they easily could've lost by double digits.

In what ended up being a nail biter PIT manages to give up a long drive to end the game without giving up any points to lose by 14. Watching this game was frustrating because things that I thought would happen were happening until a penalty or in the third quarter which was the swing of the game was the Harris fumble. How you can't catch a perfect pitch to you in the red zone is beyond me. That play was easily a 10-14 point difference. Philadelphia went on a long drive and went up 14 instead of either being tied or ahead 4. When you look at the stats in this game you would think it was a 38-0 type game.

PHI 26-10 in FD, 401-163 yes 163 in TY. 131-56 in RY and nearly 40M to 20M in TOP. This game even with these lopsided stats was a lot closer than the final score. PIT couldn't make the stops needed on 3rd down and it cost them. When you give up 10/17 against PHI you just aren't going to win. But we got the W here and it gave us yet another W for the season. I nailed the write up on this game as there was a total of 18 possessions and PHI did have the ball last and won.

Record now 11-4 +530

It really is 12-4 +630 I'm still miffed where that post several weeks ago went. Plus if you toss out the NCAA teaser that lost it would be 12-3 +760 !!!!

But we will go with 11-4 +530

8 straight weeks of W's.

Not that it matters because I frankly don't think very many are reading this thread. Tis a shame because I've been a gold mine for teasers for years!

Nice hit…appreciate all the winners!

never played a teaser in my life( and I'm getting to be an old man). May have to reconsider this after all these years!

Let's see if we can keep things going..................

CIN +.5 - Which offense do you trust to score points? Which team is still giving max effort? It's certainly not Cleveland. I have this at a better price but this is the current number.

PHI +6 - Almost the same as the above except WAS hasn't quit as they are looking to get into the playoffs. What will be the difference here? Defense. PHI is levels ahead of WAS.

SF +8 - In a battle of also rans, one team still has pride and the other squad is playing as individuals. A team will beat individuals all day.

As I've said before just because I'm on a heater with these NFL teasers, it doesn't mean you can bet like a mad man! I won't disguise the fact that I've stepped out on this play because I really love it, but I didn't go crazy. You shouldn't either.

The long streak came to end since Sf couldn't beat a group of individuals or stay within the number although they had a back door chance which ended in an interception.

11-5 +400

I will end up with a winning ledger this season once again. It's just a matter of how much!

I hate losing big time, I mean don't we all. I think I take it more personal because I know people are following along and putting their hard earned cash on the line riding with me. Alas it's a bump in the road and I have visions of ending the season on a winning streak.

Ratings of teams no longer comes into play as many playoff spots are taken and other teams are either tanking or playing for spots next year. They won't admit to tanking but isn't so obvious?

I will say that when I looked at the lines as they came out Sunday night that I started salivating and couldn't wait to ring the register this week. Even more so after a loss.

Let's get to it..........

CIN +7 -The public is all over DEN at +3 to +3.5 Everygame has it at -3. I know CIN hasn't beaten a team with a winning record but I believe if they would lose this game it won't be by 7+. Frankly I don't see them losing this game and setting themselves up for a slight chance at making the playoffs.

LAR +3.5 - I am going to side with the team that needs a win and will be out for revenge from an earlier season beat down. While AZ has nothing to play for and their dreams crushed at Carolina, how motivated will they be? I can remember playing on AZ in years past late in the season in LA and they were no where to be found. I'll take the side that needs the win.

GB +11 - The better team and it's really as simple as it gets.

I liked last weeks teaser a lot but I'll say this and I never say this lightly......... I absolutely LOVE this play. I love it so much that I've stepped out HUGE on this play for the limit at Everygame and tomorrow I'll be back for more when they open up the limits. If they don't I'll lay the lumber at Sportsbook likely at a small difference in line but at -120.

Don't go hog wild, but go wild !!!!

So I've been e-mailed if it was ok to bet MN -1 even though we have GB +11

The answer is YES. You have a 10 point middle.

Normally I would be all over this middle but I'll be holding pat as I like GB to win the game SU. Vegas needs GB as well and I'll side with that side of the counter always.

GL and let's get that paper!

Winner 12-5 +500

Looked like this was going down in flames but GB made a game of it late. The Packers had opportunities to score in the first half and went for it on 4th down. I'll give you two scenarios which was the difference. GB went for it on 4th down instead of kicking an easy FG. Then MN missed a FG right at half time to have GB offside and you got it, they made the FG 5 yards closer. That's 3 points on each side of the ledger that made the difference.

Bottom line a win is a win is a win!

Going into tonight's MNF the favorites went 14-1 SU 12-3 ATS

I'm still MF SF from the week prior............. we shall see what transpires with the unpredictable week 18. I look to close the regular season on a continued hot streak!

In closing, I wonder if anyone reads these weekly, plays these or frankly don't give a shit. No likes, no comments, very little to no interaction. It's no fun not to have interaction.

Well here we are week 18 of the regular season of the NFL.

Always a fun week to try to handicap the games, some meaningful, most not. So you get a hybrid of regular season play and exhibition of sorts. There's a lot of money on the line for several players including a whopping 6 million for Geno Smith. He has 3 separate $2 million dollar incentives in play for the final week. I think he has something to play for!

With it being week 18, I honed in on games that had some kind of meaning to playoffs whether it be seeding or just holding on to hope to make it.

CIN +7.5 - I've been riding the hot hand and while they are a long shot to make it, anything is possible. I don't think KC lies down for DEN. KC +20.5 very intriguing but not used. CIN will look to atone for a loss prior in the season and if BAL does as expected earlier in the day, I think we see the CIN line go way higher than -2.5 as PIT will rest players, they won't have anything truly to play for.

ATL +2.5 - Do you think they lose to CAR to end the season. Granted they need a miracle to see TB lose to NO but I think the home squad will give an A game effort regardless.

MN +13 - Seeing DET -3 tells me the oddsmakers see this as a PK em on a neutral field or at the worst DET -1 to MN -1. All the injuires on the DET D is going to be the difference here. I like MN +3 why wouldn't I like them at +13?

Grab this early, don't wait as it won't be there. When BAL jumps out to their big lead, the CIN line should go up and +7.5 is great value.

After week 7 I stood at a miserable 3-4 -220 and from that point on I've gone 9-1 +720 and that doesn't even include the missing post which was a winner.

Looking to close out the regular season a winner. I hope that you've enjoyed the read, made some money, got a few laughs and maybe perhaps learned something.

Enjoy week 18 and may all your teasers be winners!

Not much to say here except what a disappointing finish. ATL with everything to play for in back to back weeks loses in OT and never sees the ball in either OT. Tough way to end your season and cost us this wager.

12-6 +380

Here we go the 2024-2025 NFL Playoffs...............

Obviously the amount of games is very limited and I'll be looking for what I feel is extreme value to make the play worthwhile.

I feel like the Ohio State Buckeyes after losing to Michigan after losing in week 18 and I have more to prove............

HOU +13 - In a game the total has dropped from 44 to 41.5 this would lead you to believe that points will be an ultimate premium. A lot of metrics go against HOU here but the Chargers beat the following teams by 13 points or more this past season: CAR, NO, CLV, NEP and LVR What do all of these teams have in common? They are all super bad football teams.

Who did HOU lose to by more than 13 this season: MN and BAL. What do those teams have in common? They are in the playoffs and really damn good teams.

Do you place the LAC in the level of MN and BAL or more towards the other 5 teams? I would put them closer to the bad 5 teams than I would to the two teams listed. I'm not saying they are a bad team but their schedule was super easy. 29 out of 32 toughest. I'll take the 13 and take my chances.

BAL +1/2 - A team playing really well vs a team playing extremely bad. I'll deserve to lose this if BAL loses this game SU.

MN +8 - IN LA or at the now neutral field in AZ, MN is by far the superior team in this game. The only concern I have with this is how MN responds to the ass whipping they took at Detroit a week ago. Will they have the dead cat game or will they respond bigly. In either event I don't think the LAR can beat this team by 9 or more even if spotted a 7-0 lead.

Don't over bet because it's the playoffs, remember there will be games next week and future opportunities.

I'll be pulling for KC to three peat, I have heavy tickets on them from before the start of the season and earlier on when they escaped with wins and people fell in love with BUF, BAL, PHI........

Good luck and I'll meet you at the cashiers cage cashing those tickets!

2/3 of the way home and we wait til Monday night to cap it off.

Sunday playoff games and the money is flowing in late..........

Sharps are hitting

DEN now down to +7.5 from +8.5 earlier this morning.
WAS now down to +2.5 or +3 at heavy juice
PHI moved earlier in the week once Hurts was listed as starting from -3.5 to -5.5 but I'm seeing some sharp money coming in on GB and several high volume shops are down to -5

If I were to look at a 6pt teaser it would be BUF -1.5 with TB +3.5

Good luck today !!

6pt teaser gets home and we have MN +8 going into tonight's final wild card round.

I was e-mailed regarding how to play out the final leg of the teaser. Should I play some on the other side or let it ride?

My thought process is as follows, if I make a bet, I'm confident in it winning and never look to hedge against it. I'll deal with the results win or lose.

That's a great mentality to have on straight bets and even parlays.

When it comes to teasers you typically have a 10 point middle and who wouldn't want to explore this avenue. We saw the bigger favorites do their thing so far but in the FG line that went to 2.5 and back to 3, we saw the dog shine late.

This is a game of intrigue due to the shift in venue and I would guess the crowd will be more towards MN than it will be to LA. The LA teams in the NFL really have no true loyalty to their teams, it's typically the visiting side that is louder and seen.

In AZ specifically around this stadium location there are a lot of winter visitors from MN, WI, Canada, MT, and the Dakotas. They are being given a chance to see the MN team they normally wouldn't be able to get tickets at home.

However with that said Rams season ticket holders bought 25,000 tickets in the first hour of the presale. They have a minimum of 15 busses coming from LA to Glendale.

After the Rams presale, the tickets went on sale to the Cardinals season ticket holders and Rams single game buyers before going up for grabs to the general public. In the two hours tickets were put up 52,000 seats were sold and it will likely be a complete sell out.

Now I'll say this, the Cardinal season ticket holders, many will go, however many will be trying to sell to MN fans in the valley.

It's bad enough the NFL tripled the price of the tickets than what it would've been in LA. I don't care what they say about proceeds if they mention it at all, the NFL is one greedy entity due to it's billionaire owners.

If you must try to middle............ You have MN +8 or at the very least +7.5 depending on when and where you played it. I would take 1/4 unit of your wager and buy LAR to +3 and potentially to +3.5 if possible. Preferably +3.5.

Yes you are going to pay the juice but give yourself a 11.5 to 11 point middle. If MN wins by 3, you can scoop both. If MN wins by 3, then you push if you buy to +3. If LAR wins, then you cut your losses and if MN wins by 4 or more well you insured your profits.

It all depends on how many units you played for. If for only 1 unit, then it is 1/4 of your unit. So if you played to win $100 it would be to win $25.

Currently I'm seeing -2/5 -115 or -120 across the board except an outlier in Heritage which has the line at -1.5 -108

Good Luck no matter if you let it ride or attempt a double win.

When you're wrong, you're wrong but I had a sneaking suspicion the dead cat bounce may have been in order. That's the best the Rams have looked all year and for the second straight week MN looked totally lost.

Can't win them all but the 6pt teaser and potential hedge evened things out.

good year!

Taking a look at the 4 playoff games and NCAA title game for this extended weekend. Inauguration day and NCAA Title game should make for a grand day.

A barometer I like to look at late in the year is Sagarin Ratings. Jeff has been doing this forever and it's a great tool still today.

Let's look at the numbers:

HOU 22.5
KC 24.1 Favored by 8.5 to 9

WAS 21.6
DET 30.8 Favored by 9.5

LAR 23
PHI 29.8 Favored by 6

BAL 29 Favored by 1 to 1.5
BUF 30.2

ND 92.1
OH St 94.5 Favored by 8

I round numbers and don't use 4 digits. That's truly ineffective and doesn't make a difference.

Taking a look at these numbers several things stick out right away. HOU, BUF, ND

A Sagarin teaser would look like HOU +18.5 to +19, BUF +11 to +11.5 and ND +18

That looks pretty appealing.

The newsletter gurus would agree as several are on HOU, BUF. Nearly all of them are on PHI and it's split on WAS/DET and ND/OH St.

Now let's look at it from a rank vs rank

HOU 9
KC 6

WAS 12
DET 1

LAR 7
PHI 4

BAL 2
BUF 3

ND 2
OH St 1

Finally let's look at SOS this will be an eye opener of sorts


HOU 19
KC 23

WAS 32
DET 8

LAR 5
PHI 30

BAL 14
BUF 17

ND 44
OH St 20

Does it surprise you to see WAS had the easiest schedule in the entire NFL? Their schedule certainly won't be #32 next year and there will be regression as they will play a tougher schedule. They will be an automatic bet against for their season win total no matter what it is.

PHI not far behind them at #30, remember that nice long 10 game win streak........ cup cake city...........

Seeing the LAR at #5 and DET at #8 could this be the NFC Championship?

Again an advantage to HOU in SOS and a slight one to BAL but a pretty good margin for OH St

So what do all these numbers have to do with handicapping? EVERYTHING !!!!!!!!!!!!!

You could go blind and just use the Sagarin 10 Pt Teaser and let's face it, it looks pretty tasty, but you have to think for just a moment, HOU in cold temps, KC on rest....... Recipe for blow out is in play, so what do you trust more?

HOU +18 or KC +2 ?

Rather easy choice is KC +2. If you think HOU is winning SU, you aren't playing the spread, you're on the ML. Make sense?

I'm going to go against the grain a little bit here and make this play

KC +2
DET +1
OH St +2

These lines are available at Bovada.......... always shop, a point here, 1/2 point there, makes a world of difference from a win to a push instead of a loss.

I have futures on KC as I mentioned earlier and I also have a lot on Ohio St +350 and beyond from before the season started. I like my chances and we'll see how this all plays out.

Good Luck !

Let's be real unless your a die hard Redskins er Commanders fan, you didn't see a complete beat down taking place. Sure WAS to keep it close, maybe win it late, but a complete beat down. Let's be realistic on that.

I'm just going to keep it simple today no big write up.

LAR +17 - Snow, cold, whatever........ Rams can bottle neck the running game and I just don't see Hurts having a big passing game. I like the Rams +7 why not +17.

BAL +9 - I just think back to that 35-10 beat down earlier in the season and did BUF improve that much or did BAL regress. The market agrees after making BUF the tepid favorite on the opener. A game that I don't think either team pulls away and it's close throughout. I've been wrong before.......hopefully not with this.

OH St +2 - No need to cover, just read a few posts ahead.

Enjoy the games.