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Damn Denver losing tonight that’s crazy. After being up 20.. that was nuts!

NFL 9/8/2024

2 Team Parlay: Buffalo to -1.5 & Cincinnati to -1.5 (-125) for 4 units

Just like last year, I am coming out of the gates strong with a four unit play. My scale is usually one to three with a majority of the play seems by to be three units.

I was looking at this one and I decided to go with these two favorites of around a touchdown instead of Seattle because I looked at the home road records last year and Buffalo did well at home, wasn’t very impressive on the road, Cincinnati did well at home, New England has their own issues going on. The reason I went to -1.5 for each is because, I thought it was the best value. I always want to get them under a field goal, but to get the bills at a money line or minus one it would’ve increased the juice by 7%. With the Bengals to bring them down, it increased it a little bit more than that or around the same. One area of improvement I have is getting good value in my plays. A lot of times I think about only the play in the moment, but to have any sustained success, i’ll need to figure out where the good value is also. Yes, once in a rare while I may get burned by a half a point, but that’s the balance that I’ll need to figure out. Bringing them both to moneylines would’ve been -139. A lot of how I have played over the years has been trying to create or find value by manipulating lines or using parlays, I’ll admit, parlays and teasers are generally a suckers game… So you do have to be very careful. Also, buying points is generally never a good value, but I’ll be damned if it don’t make that play feel better sometimes.

As for the actual plays, Rookie quarterbacks are zero for their last nine, definitely was some thing I thought about with Bo Nix and Denver, but ultimately Joe Burrow over Brissett with the Bengals was too much value in my opinion. Second, if you looked at my place from last year, Buffalo was a thorn in my side – but they generally win the games they are supposed to and they are good at home. Most of the time. Maybe I’m being a homer with this one, especially with Josh having new receivers, but Arizona had a couple injuries upfront, and Kyler is returning from the injury… Rookie receiver on their side, even if he is going to be great could be a live wire this year, but I’ll go with the Home team at home and I think these two 1 PM games were the best value for this specific play for me this week. Good luck all!

One more point, using survival football principles, going with Home teams – especially if it is not against a division rival – is usually a pretty solid strategy. At least that’s what my pop has told me for the last couple decades and he’s pretty good at survival. Am I allowed to say that the bills owe me this one? Definitely not, but I hope they get that victory by two or more points. Second, Bengals are my survival team this week. Lol

YTD: 0-1, -5 units

My survival team Cinci was eliminated week 1 along with 45% of the pool. No Belichick Pats showed life. I would’ve felt better I think if they started Drake Maye but that experience from Brisette and no life in Burrows offense left it on the table. Lost 16-10. Buffalo up 6 with 2 mins left but they’ve been nip and tuck too. Parody will become even more prominent in the NFL with the upcoming depth.. this strategy may not be as good as it was last year and the year before.

PS never ever ever trust week 1. lol

Thought long and hard about using the same concept with Baltimore -8.5 -> -2.5 type thing at home against a lame Raiders team with no QB (well, I guess a live journeyman backup type Minshew). Ravens lost at home. Also would’ve been out again in survival lol. Lots of parity in the NFL. Teases may be better used in underdog or close game situations. Getting a -3 to a +4 type idea. Posting this for future consideration.

9/22

3 Team Parlay: LAC +8.5, Cin ML, & Buf +3 (+111) for 4 units

Love Cin here to bounce back, LAC in a low scoring game plus a cushion I like, and Buf doesn’t lose by much often.. they have issues against Jax and The Prince historically but hopefully they aren’t sleeping in primetime.

YTD: 0-2, -9 units

hard to handicap injuries and Herbert did go out when the game was like 13-10. called the game relatively closely in the “worst case scenario.” Couldn’t have got it to +10, 8.5 was pushing it. Was between that and 6.5. Bills were the tack on. Thought Chargers were a really savvy play, -4 yards in the second half. Steelers killed it at the chargers one so I’m impressed. I would’ve liked Pit under win total but they’re 3-0 now. Bills & Bengals will prob roll now. 2024 tough year for the UA.

NFL 9/29/24

3 Play Parlay: Cin/Car Over 37.5, SF -1, & Buffalo +7.5 (+102) for 3 units

Trying to get back on track here… wish me luck! 🍀

9/29

4 Play Parlay: Cin/Car Over 37.5, NYJ -2, SF -3, & ARZ -3 (+267) for 2 units

Manipulated the first three but decided I liked Arizona ATS, they’re 3.5 point chalks bought down the hook. Jets trying to find a winner against Payton the bully (lol) before London (so I think the trapiness washes out). Go Bills +6 or more since like 2021.. love SF getting to 2-2 here - a SB contender in a must win at home vs a bad team, and love Cin to be able to score and Dalton to put on at least a show vs his former team.

9/29

Arizona -3 (-122) for 1 unit

YTD: 0-5, -15.2 units

Parlays and teases are suckers bets, seasons been laughable so far. Has those couple years where I started out so so hot, but this season has been tough. I’ll happy correct myself if the third leg of my 3 unit play Buffalo turns it around in the second half down 21-3 at halftime.