Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar First and Goal The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 13

Although it’s predictable to see even good defenses fall apart in the 2nd halves of games, last week was pretty much over-the-top. Also predictable was that I was on the losing end of such games, along with the model. Anyway – it’s nearly Thanksgiving, and I expect the start of the Tanking For Shedeur season to begin, with my Raiders and the Giants leading the way. The Raiders shouldn’t have a tough time getting wiped by the Chiefs this week, while the Giants vs Cowboys may be interestingly bad. GLTA

I’ve tried for years trying to get positive results with Totals projections, tweaking algorithm 6 ways from Sunday, but never getting it right. Below is my latest test, with picks ranked according to the variation from the line, and if I just break even I’ll be happy.

Giving Over-Under projections a try. I’ve reworked the posting, eliminating the ranking of the projected margins and showing the margins to the 10th of a point. For record-keeping the projected total will remain as is, but the final O-U picks could change depending on the closing lines. If this hits less than 50%, I’ll just toss it on the huge pile of previous failures. FWIW – I’m using some of these picks on my own parlays, so I’ll feel your pain - LOL. GLTA