Home Forums Expert Forum Handicappers Freak's Football Teasers Let's Make That $$$$

Detroit Lions 0 (-10)
Indianapolis Colts +13.5 (+3.5)
Kansas City Chiefs +12.5 (+2.5)

Winner

Record 4-1 +270

Let's take a look back at the write ups:

Detroit PK - All you need is a win by the Lions at home vs the Browns. Do you think if the Browns put up the same amount of total yards (221) at Detroit they stand a chance to win SU? I wouldn't even touch them at +20 as tempting as it sounds......... Detroit makes the most sense all around here.

Detroit not only won but that +20 I wouldn't touch, they covered that 34-10. Cleveland did improve on that 221 total they had against Green Bay they ended up with 249 yards on 65 plays. Would it surprise you if I told you Detroit only had 277 yards and had the ball 3.5 minutes less. Detroit actually had less passing yards, less overall plays and one less possession than Cleveland and yet won in a rout. Stats can be deceiving...............

IND +13.5.... This game is basically a toss up between what I think are two even teams. A true neutral field has them at PK or -1 either way.

Actually needed the points to get this one home and it never should have come to that. The dropped ball heading into the end zone and the holding call that brought back Taylor's big TD run was the difference. All courtesy of Adonai Mitchell. This cost them from taking a 17-13 lead in the early stages of the third and later with 225 left in the game it kept them from going up 27-20. That my friends is the difference of winning and losing.

Now let's be real who saw a 88 yard TD pass coming for the Rams to take the lead 27-20 and cover the spread. Two crazy plays in Rams games back to back weeks. Makes you pause for a second due to the spread implications in both games.

Not a conspiracy person but it does seem a bit odd..........

KC +12.5 - Is BAL 13 points better than KC on the road? Unless something out of the norm happens, this will be a tight game in the 4th quarter. It might be even a last possession type game. These teams do not blow each other out and I'll take Mahomes and company plus the generous 12.5.........

Well something out of the norm did happen because this was a blow out. If I told you both teams had the ball 10 times each and there was only 22 total yards difference would you think a team lost by 17? The difference in this game was KC ran 17 more plays and had the ball 9.5 minutes more with zero turnovers which gave them +2 for the game. Best game of the season for the KC offense but perhaps a lot of that had to do with the Baltimore defense. Even though KC defense gave up an average of 6.8 YPP while KC was at 5.5. Again another one of those games where the stats are misleading.

I've been forgetting to post my Circa Survivor selections but I'm still alive after 4 weeks. Had Houston today which was likely the best spot of the year to use them. So far I've used in order Denver, Arizona, Seattle and Houston. Not exactly a who's who of teams. Week 5 will present a challenge as byes come into play and you are going to be forced to use some better teams. We shall see where things shake out.

Just a few off the cuff comments, I absolutely hate ties. They need to have a winner. Play a second overtime with no clock and have a winner. That is so dissatisfying.

Chargers and Packers burned a lot of 6 pt teasers today. Tomorrow the popular teaser will be Jets with Broncos. I guess we are going to see if the Dolphin slide continues and how well the Bengals rebound after that huge loss in Minnesota. Of which was totally diminished with the Steelers beating the Vikings today.

It's on to next..............and until later in the week.........

I'll meet you at the cashiers cage as we cashed another ticket.

Let's Make That $$$$$$

Season Record 4-1 +270 Streak of W 4

This is a play with lines coming from Fan Duel.........

SF +18.5
DEN +14.5
DET -1/2

Let me break it down some:

SF +18.5 - Line went from -3.5 touched -9 and dipped to current -8.5 for the Rams. Mac Jones has out played Purdy as QB so in my eyes, this isn't a negative. Two WR's out, yes that's a problem but are they really worth 5 to 6 points because I give a 1/2 point upgrade at the QB spot and maybe it could be 1. Bosa out hurts. So how do they stay competitive. Use Christian in the passing game. Short passes, screens and of course running. If he is 100% they can burn a lot of clock, shorten the game and stay within the 8.5. Rams only beat the lowly Titans by 8 or more and this is a rivalry game within the division. I'll take my chances with the 18.5. I don't see this as the Lions vs Browns scenario last week at all.

DEN +14.5 - Thanks to Fan Duel they are giving an extra point still and I'll gladly take it to push the teaser over two full scores. Sooner or later the real Eagles will show up or perhaps this is the real Eagles. As for the upstart Broncos they have played well outside of the Chargers loss and even then they were in it til late. Lots of rushing in this game and if the Broncos defense travels of which I think it does, this shouldn't be a concern. Now with that said, anything is possible and we might get a sweat if the Eagles put it all together.

DET - 1/2 - If you thought the Browns were bad with a somewhat semblance of a defense, what would you say the Bengals defense is? Not to mention what offense do they have? I think the Bengals have checked out and are already on vacation mode. What do they have to play for right now? Pride? They won't make the playoffs, they might as well continue to lose and get a top draft pick to help fix one of many holes they have. They are and have been over rated because of Burrow. Even if he was playing Lions would be favored by at least 5.5 to 6 points if not more. All I need is the best team to win. It's a short road trip and one that the Lions should and will win running away.

As for Circa Survivor............ I have it narrowed down to two teams this week. Initially it was the Colts all the way. However I keep having flashbacks of the Raiders winning on Thanksgiving at Dallas and costing me at least a million dollars as my other remaining picks all won. So the thought process is, do I save them for a much more hapless team such as TN in week 8 rather than a team that does have a pulse.

Now I'm leaning towards Buffalo who I've saved and only have them penciled in one more time this season. Oddly enough week 8 at Carolina. So you see where my thinking is here. BUF at home now vs on the road and IND vs a weaker team that same week instead of a team that can surprise this weekend.

While you have to think in terms of I need to go 1-0 this week, you still want to position yourself in having better teams down the road than being stuck with teams that are marginal at best.

I've used in no order - AZ, DEN, HOU and SEA.........

BUF at home for the third week in a row and 4th out of 5 to start the season........ or a team coming home after two road games and the last a west coast trip...........

These are things you need to think about when handicapping. I try to use this as a money making venture for you with the picks but to show you some out of the box handicapping thinking that will help you become a better handicapper.

Let's Make That $$$$

I'm in on the 2 today. Missed the 49ers game grabbed Vikings +7 early game today from -3 and have Broncos only at +14. with the lions at PK Hope your streak continues!

SF +18.5
DEN +14.5
DET -1/2

Winner

Record 5-1 +370

Let's take a look back at the write ups:

SF +18.5 - Mac Jones has out played Purdy as QB so in my eyes, this isn't a negative. So how do they stay competitive. Use Christian in the passing game. Short passes, screens and of course running. If he is 100% they can burn a lot of clock, shorten the game and stay within the 8.5. Rams only beat the lowly Titans by 8 or more and this is a rivalry game within the division. I'll take my chances with the 18.5. I don't see this as the Lions vs Browns scenario last week at all.

Mac Jones impressed and never crumbled under pressure. They used Christian just as I thought they would. 22 carries and had 8 receptions for 82 yards which was second highest on the team in both receptions and yards. He was targeted 9 times so I would say they used him effectively. They held the ball for over 40 minutes to the Rams 26. Even with all of this, they had to go to OT to win the game. This was NEVER in doubt. It certainly wasn't a Lions vs Browns rout which many predicted.

DEN +14.5 - Sooner or later the real Eagles will show up or perhaps this is the real Eagles. As for the upstart Broncos they have played well outside of the Chargers loss and even then they were in it til late. Lots of rushing in this game and if the Broncos defense travels of which I think it does, this shouldn't be a concern. Now with that said, anything is possible and we might get a sweat if the Eagles put it all together.

The Eagles were consistent with how they've played all season. Out of the gate fast and a disappearing act in the second half. I'm thinking that this is the real Eagles for now. Once they put together a really solid 60 minutes that will likely change their season. Until then, they will continue to play with fire and they finally got burned. Denver ran the ball 29 times for 130 yards. That ended up giving them 8.5 more minutes in time of possession. Denver's defense shaky in the first half gave us a pause of concern down 17-3 at the end of three but even then we were never behind in this game with the 14.5. A nice SU win for the Broncos as the defense showed up bigly in the second half.

DET - 1/2 - If you thought the Browns were bad with a somewhat semblance of a defense, what would you say the Bengals defense is? I think the Bengals have checked out and are already on vacation mode. What do they have to play for right now? Pride? They won't make the playoffs, they might as well continue to lose and get a top draft pick to help fix one of many holes they have. All I need is the best team to win. It's a short road trip and one that the Lions should and will win running away.

Misleading final score. Detroit led 28-3 at the end of three. This was NEVER in doubt. Detroit with 365 total yards and the Bengals gave up 37 points. Not much needs written here on this game.

While it was great to win this for everyone, this is a bittersweet time and one I'm not really in a good space right now. As you know I fucked up moving off IND and went with BUF for Survivor, count me as a casualty and I'm as sick as one can get. I feared the Raiders would step up and didn't want to get banged by them again but in the end I technically was.

Now for some off the cuff comments:

9 true road team wins out of 12 games not counting the overseas game. You had total meltdowns of teams like AZ, PHI, SEA, BUF and then had blowout wins by 15,34,17. This is not the NFL of old and you can't just pick teams to throw in a teaser and have automatic wins.

NYJ, LVR, NYG, BAL, LAC, BUF, LAR alone prove that. This isn't easy and don't take for granted what I've been able to produce last season and so far this season. I put a lot of time and effort into this topic and the picks. Not to mention the thought process behind them.

By far this is the most underappreciated thread in the forum and it's been nothing but a gold mine.

Chew on that.............

Really good stuff Freak . This should have more views than anything else. It's a ATM

Loving these teasers Freak. I've only been on 3 of them but 3-0 in the time frame. Great selections to use in solid teasers.

Season Record 5-1 +370 Streak of W 5

This is a play with lines coming from Draft Kings.........

PHI +3
SEA +11.5
ATL +14.5

PHI +3 - I think that PHI received a wake up call last week with the loss to DEN at home. If PHI truly rights the ship here we should see a heavy does of Barkley tonight. He was literally not in the game plan last week but tonight he should be used all over the place. I'm also not sold on Dart being the savior for the NYG here and what we saw last week out of him is going to be more of the same here I think. If by some strange occurrence the NYG win this game then I deserve to lose this play. Tonight we should see a full 60 minute effort out of PHI.

SEA +11.5 - JAX had it's miracle feel good win last week. They will be riding high and while the past doesn't determine the future, this is the spot we see JAX fail and fail miserably. Let's for the heck of it say JAX wins do you think they win by 12 or more? Wrong team is favored here.

ATL +14.5 - MNF magic is in store here. I believe that ATL can win this game SU and getting two TD+ is a gift.

Not a big write up this week, I'm still distraught over the Survivor elimination.

I will say this to everyone, there is a lesson to be learned here. Stick with your first instincts and don't over think it. I did exactly that and paid the ultimate price for it. I know better and outsmarted myself where there was no need to.

If you don't learn from your losses you should re-evaluate why you are betting in the first place.

I deserved to lose.

I was hoping you would come out with another one. you'll get em back next week.

Season Record 5-2 +240 Streak of L1

What's really irritating is the last loss really should've never happened. PHI started using Barkley and things were working and they got away from it and everything went downhill from there.

SEA and ATL both dogs won SU..............

However that's the way it goes and you can't win them all.

Let's see what I have in store for this week:

NFL Lines Los Angeles Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Los Angeles Rams +7 (-3)

NFL Lines Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs -2 (-12)

NFL Lines Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons +12 (+2)

When you think of which team is better between LAR/JAX what is your conclusion? When you think of which coach is better between the teams, what is your conclusion? If you said JAX then you would be incorrect. By far the LAR are the better team and better coached. I'll certainly take the 7 and look to move on to next.

KC -2, sure the LVR play KC tough, yes they can keep in most games, but this isn't a 5-1 or 6-0 KC team and there will be a much bigger focus on this game to get them over .500. You don't think Reid wants to beat Carroll real bad? Mahomes wants to get Rice back in action? The KC defense looks forward to Jeanty. Look I'm a life long Raiders fan and this organization has done nothing since getting demolished by TB in the Super Bowl which feels like 100 years ago. Chiefs in a rout.

Finally a live dog that I think can win SU here. Yes it's a road game, yes it's on grass outdoors, yes the weather won't be climate controlled, but 12 points in a one off game, I'll take the dog in most scenarios like this one especially when I think they are live.

Let's Make That $$$$

BOL today I'm along for this one.

great job Freak!

Record 6-2 +340 Win Streak of 1

Let's take a look back at the write ups:

Los Angeles Rams +7 (-3)
Kansas City Chiefs -2 (-12)
Atlanta Falcons +12 (+2)


LAR +7 - When you think of which team is better between LAR/JAX what is your conclusion? When you think of which coach is better between the teams, what is your conclusion? If you said JAX then you would be incorrect. By far the LAR are the better team and better coached.

21-0 at the half 28-0 in the fourth and a 35-7 final. JAX ran more plays 74-62 and had more yards 358-271 and had the ball one less time than the Rams. JAX had zero turnovers but had 13 penalties for 119 yards. LAR had the ball 3.5 more minutes and yet won going away and was never in doubt. Better team, better coach. Discipline and being effective was the total difference in this game and it showed.

KC -2 - Mahomes wants to get Rice back in action? The KC defense looks forward to Jeanty. Chiefs in a rout.

Rice 7 receptions for 42 yards and two touchdowns while being targeted ten times. Nearly 33% of the passes went his way.

Jeanty 6 rushes for only 21 yards.

The score of 31-0 is indeed a ROUT but the score doesn't even come close to telling you how big of a ROUT this was.

KC had 30 first downs. LV had 3. KC ran 77 plays, LV ran 30. KC had 434 yards, LV had 95, yes you read that right 95 total yards on 30 plays that yielded 3 first downs.

LV rushed for 25 yards, KC had 152. LV had 70 passing yards, KC had 282.

KC had the ball 42:08 LV had 17:52

It was so bad, Mahomes was pulled after 3 quarters and Minshew had mop duty of the 4th. It was so bad, he didn't even attempt a pass in the 4th.

ATL +12 - I'll take the dog in most scenarios like this one especially when I think they are live.

There wasn't too much of a write up on this one. However ATL gave this game away late in the second quarter. While the defense held SF to only 13 points through three, it could've been worse. Penix made plays but when push came to shove, he was tentative and made the band aid SF defense look like the Steel Curtain. He had numerous opportunities to tuck it and run but stood in the pocket and got beat up for doing it. I get it that he wasn't a big running QB in college but if he doesn't change that part of his game, he will have a shortened career because he won't be able to take that beating like he did tonight. The defense couldn't tackle CMC and couldn't make key stops late in drives. While the game stat wise was pretty even overall, the effort of SF earned them the 10 point win while we got the $$$ with the 12.

This weeks plays saw 2 blow out never a doubt winners and one where we needed the points to ring the bell at the cashier cage.

On to next.

Season Record 6-2 +340 Streak of Win 1

Time is flying by this year and it seems quicker than it has in the past. Perhaps it's getting to be older it seems that way since time relatively is always the same speed.

Going to switch it up this week and I think I've put together a pretty strong ticket at plus money. I always place the wager first then come post and I just made this moments ago.

6 Point Teaser (3 Teams) 10/25/25 13:41 EDT
Result: Pending

Pittsburgh Steelers +9 (-115)
New England Patriots -1 (-105)
Atlanta Falcons -1 (-110)

+160

Let's go in reverse order based on time of the games...........

ATL -1 if they can't beat MIA at home I deserve to lose. This MIA organization is by far the worst in the NFL and some would argue that the Jets are the worst. I can't argue that the NYJ is bad but they have good pieces in place and if they can put it all together (likely next year) then they will be fine. Back to MIA, this coach needs fired, the QB needs benched and neither have happened so far and I really don't understand why. From game one of the season until the last it's just been a total cluster fuck. Mind you this is coming from someone that took Miami three times in the Three and Out contest and was bounced early due to it. No animosity here but obviously I watched a lot of their games.

As for Atlanta, they just need to run the ball, make a few plays downfield and keep Penix from getting crunched. He got beat up pretty good in the last game and I wonder where his mental state is. He never had that happen in NCAA and up until last game, not in the NFL. He refuses to use his legs which to me is silly, if you've watched him run, it's like he runs scared. I've used him the last two weeks in overs for his rushing yards. Last week it was 4.5 yards. That's Tom Brady like numbers and even Tom ran when it was necessary.

All we need is a win here and I can't see a 1 point game.

NE -1 - Ok people are all over CLV here. Why? They had 200 yards of offense in their game against the a fore mentioned Dolphins. Gabriel will progress and I just can't see the Browns going into Foxborough and beating the Patriots. Maye should have a field day here and I think if you wanted to make a bet on the game with full numbers, NE -3.5 first half might be a good option. They have a great game plan to start games and I see them having a big time of possession edge in this game. CLV will be very limited in what they are going to be able to do. NE will have to spit the bit for CLV to win this game.

PIT +9 - GB has played down to competition this year outside of the opener vs DET. Ever been to a PIT game on a SUN/MON night? It is going to be total mayhem and come on you know Rodgers wants some form of retribution here. He won't say it, but you know just like when beating the NYJ, he wants this one even more. Nothing more than beating your replacement and why you left to begin with. I can't see GB winning by 10 in Blitzburgh and this should be a tightly played game. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see PIT win SU.

One note with 3 team 6pt teasers if a leg pushes, it reverts to a 2 teamer at lower odds.

I hope to see all of you that read this at the cashier cage late Sunday Night cashing this ticket.

Let's Make That $$$$

Update:

There's a high probability that Kirk Cousins will start the game and not Penix. I'm fine with that.

good luck this weekend freak, this has been a good ride

How is it that I write up once again, if a team beats me I deserve to lose. First it was PHI against the NYG and now ATL vs MIA. How sick was this beat down.

ATL was a NO SHOW.......

The Falcons were even pathetic last week with ridiculous errors that cost them the outright and kept them at 10 points against 49ers who they should have beat for the SU win....ATL is my team. I figured this game would have some points from both sides and land around 31-24 pretty much on the number. I luckily had 1 play on the over 43.5 which I bought off 44. But I also had the Falcons team total over 26 points. Falcons were in an even ML parley with eagles and patriots and so I lost out on my team today. I really expected a much greater effort out of them. Its not like they were playing some superior opponent today or something lol.....or were they? Are they that bad? at home? everything with the Falcons today was just tough to imagine.