Santa Anita Brad Free

BEST BET: RACE 6, OLD MAN LAKE

FIRST RACE
A sharp maiden win by TEMPLAR makes him a logical choice in this claiming-race route for 3-year-olds. His most recent was his first for trainer Keith Desormeaux and first around two turns, TEMPLAR pressed/set a fast pace and won by more than four lengths. He is realistically spotted for a $25k tag in his initial try against winners, fast enough to set the pace, and versatile enough to race in second position if necessary. CONGRATS SEATTLE defeated the top choice two starts back. However, ‘SEATTLE faces a challenge regarding distance. His best races are sprints; his worst races are routes. He cannot be entirely dismissed, however. His numbers are good for this level; he drops in class after splitting the field for a $50k tag. This is only his second start since being claimed by Robertino Diodoro. TWO SIX WINS will be forwardly placed, which is typically the best position in a one-mile dirt race on this track.

SECOND RACE
First-time starter BELLA BREEZE is believed to be quick, and the one to catch if she breaks running from the inside post. Bred for speed, she has always shown gas in works. She worked 10.20 last June at a 2-year-old sale, posted bullet works at Los Alamitos in February/March, and capped off her preparation with a fast 59.40 gate work a week ago on this track. The Doug O’Neill-trained filly is from the first crop sired by Concord Point, whose progeny have won more than 20 percent first time out. ALPHA DOLL, runner-up all three starts, returns to dirt after an okay try on turf. A 4-year-old, she concedes eight pounds to the 3-year-old top choice. ‘DOLL has speed and figures to be forwardly placed. First-time starter CORONADO CAT has a solid workout pattern for trainer Matt Chew, who has won with 16 percent of his starters this year while continually offering value. Chew runners produced a positive $2.85 ROI for each $2 win bet in 2013, followed by $2.99 ROI in 2014. After three and a half months of 2015, the pattern continues. Chew trainees this year have produced a $2.55 ROI.

THIRD RACE
The pick six begins here (eight-race Sunday card). The lightly raced 6-year-old maiden WANDERING HEART looks obvious in this turf route for Cal-bred maiden fillies and mares. She followed her third-place turf debut with a decent runner-up finish on dirt. In the money twice, she returns to grass in a field with pace to run at. The past six months, trainer Don Warren is 6-for-7 with favorites; the past five years, Warren is 12-for-22 with favorites on turf. LIRICA HEAT, back in a week, will try to steal it. She set the pace to deep stretch in a turf sprint last Sunday. She stretches back to a route and will lead as far as she can. BARBARA BEATRICE goes long and switches surfaces after a pair of good sprint efforts in winter. WARREN’S PURRFECT will roll from behind, first-time Rafael Bejarano.

FOURTH RACE
MIDNIGHT LADY lost her chance at the break last time; she finished third at even-money. She hopped and was away slowly, and ended up with a three-wide trip over a surface that favored the inside. The winner Acute led wire to wire scraping paint all the way. ‘LADY was claimed by Julio Canani, gets a weight break with a seven-pound apprentice aboard, and with a clean start she figures to be on top of the pace. SUMMERS DIGNITY is a late threat, dropping from much tougher turf races. This class level where she belongs. The knock is she has not crossed the wire first since her career debut in April 2013. But she will pick them up in the lane. CHOCOLATE DELIGHT finished nearly four lengths in front of the top choice last time out, while benefitting from a rail trip over a pro-inside track. Good form, logical contender.

FIFTH RACE
The familiar faces in this N1X turf sprint are modest. It is a good spot for a new shooter such as DIVINA COMEDIA. The import from France was stakes-placed twice overseas; her local workouts for trainer Julio Canani have been outstanding. Lasix on for her U.S. debut, all systems go. PROVENANCE has not started since July, but she has proven form on the downhill, and should get a good trip. This field came up short on speed; she figures to either set or press a relatively easy pace from the outside post. During the winter meet, trainer Mike Puype was 4-for-11 with comebackers off six months or more. ZANAB ran better than her running line looks in her recent comeback. She was fussy in the gate, broke dead last, trailed the field, and then put in a good late run to finish fifth and miss by less than four lengths in a race won by the easy-pace front-runner. Not sure if the pace of this race will be quick enough, but ZANAB merits come-from-behind consideration at a big price. FAST MAGOO is eligible to an easier spot, but she should make the lead. Have to give her longshot look to steal it.

SIXTH RACE
OLD MAN LAKE has really gotten good. He followed a decent $8k claiming sprint victory with a two-turn romp. He won by more than six lengths, had something left late, earned a big number (91 Beyer), and was claimed by Rafael Becerra for $12.5k. He moves up to Calbred allowance, and if he runs the same race should win at a short price. MISSING GROOM ran well last out, finishing second in a similar state-bred allowance route. He raced wide most of the trip chasing a fast pace, and finished nearly two lengths clear of third. He goes from outside to inside, where he figures to save ground this time. The knock is he has never crossed the wire first; one win was via disqualification. BRAVE ACT moves up in class in sharp form. He won a starter allowance last time; the race was validated when the horse he beat returned to win. CHIEF OF STAFF goes sprint route, adds blinkers and switches to Tyler Baze. Have to believe he will show speed.

SEVENTH RACE
This filly-mare G3 turf mile is a good betting race; tough to eliminate any of the eight thta entered. BLINGISMYTHING gets the call, wheeling back in two weeks and stretching back to a route after a better than looked third-place sprint. The race was dominated by the pacesetter, ‘BLING rallied from next-to-last to miss by less than two lengths. It was a good try running against the “shape.” G2-placed on this course in February before a two-month rest, she returns on short notice and should get a good trip behind the pace. BIRDLOVER used her speed to full advantage last out. She made the lead, shook off her foes, and scored an impressive win by more than two lengths. A stakes winner long and short, she is drawn outside her main pace rival, and has shown she does not necessarily require the lead. Win or lose, she will be involved early. MOULIN DE MOUGIN raced against the boys last time in a race that was merely a prep. She broke from post 10, stayed wide, and ran around the course. With a race under her belt, cozy inside post, and a class drop to face fillies and mares, improvement is expected. SMOOVE IT, supplemented to this, has won three of her last four against allowance foes. She might be this good. UZZIEL is the aforementioned front-runner that will keep BIRDLOVER honest.

EIGHTH RACE
A key challenge for DUALLY AFFIRMED in this maiden-20 is the footing. He has run well on turf, but two starts on dirt were losses by double digits. Despite the surface dilemma, he is the one to beat dropping in class after a good local debut in which he finished fourth in a maiden-50 on turf. BLAME IT ON TEKELA when too quick out front and paid the price last out, finishing fourth. But a pair of runner-up finishes in previous starts, rallying from off the pace, makes him an obvious contender. FANCY SHOES stretches out and is likely to set the pace. He’ll take them as far as he can. BURNING will pick them up late.

Santa Anita Jeff Siegel

RACE 1:
In the opener #5 Congrats Seattle stretches out again and his two previous two-turn races were poor. Combined with speed figures that are headed in the wrong direction, the Diodoro-trained gelding could be vulnerable, though in a weak field you may be compelled to use him on a ticket or two in your rolling exotics. Our top pick is the improving #3 Templar, fresh from a career top performance when breaking his maiden earlier this month in his first off-the-claim for Desormeaux. The Into Mischief colt earned a nice number despite drifting out through the lane, and if he can maintain a straight course today he'll be hard to beat right back.

RACE 2:
We'll go three-deep in the second race, a maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. #5 Alpha Doll is the best of the known element and has improving speed figures for Puype, so you have to use her along with two first timers that have trained like they can run some. #1 Bella Breeze has done good work in the morning for O'Neill and if she can avoid trouble from the rail she could be dangerous. #2 Coronado Cat is another that has trained like she's got some talent and at 9/2 on the morning line she's a "must use" as well.

RACE 3:
The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a maiden special weight turf miler for state-bred fillies and mares. #3 Wandering Heart is improving with racing and seems the solid choice, although at 8/5 on the morning line she's not going to offer much value. #4 Almost Reality has been fairly impressive in the morning for Drysdale and represents strong stranger danger. We'll use both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 4:
We'll also double the fourth race, a bottom-rung claiming miler for older fillies and mares, but not with a great deal of confidence. #3 Midnight Lady, first off the claim for Canani, has won over this track in the past and is a fit on speed figures, though her recent failure under these conditions at even money doesn't inspire confidence. Hopefully, she can bounce back for her new connections. #6 Chocolate Delight finished almost fourth lengths clear of 'Lady when second in that common race in mid-March and if she runs back to that effort today she'll be the one to fear most. These will be the two favorites and quite frankly neither one is all that trustworthy. Big ticket players probably will spread and hope for a price and we can't say that's a bad strategy.

RACE 5:
A good group of first-level allowance fillies and mares sprint down the hill in the fifth race, an open affair that has several possibilities. We'll use three and hope to get by. #4 Artistic Charm flashed some promise in her U.S. debut with a solid third place effort over this course and distance last month, and because she's come back to train quite well since that race for Callaghan we're expecting a forward move. If she breaks cleanly today, she should be close up throughout under Bejarano. #5 Chati's On Top won a state-bred race under these conditions last month and today's tackles open company. She's a fit on speed figures but loses Bejarano, so you may get a bit more than her morning line of 9/2 if you like her. We'll toss her in somewhere. #8 Divina Comedia makes her U.S. debut for Canani and has been burning up the track in the a.m.; she ran in good company in France, can fire fresh, and gets Talamo, so you have to think she'll turn up a live item.

RACE 6:
#6 Rocko's Wheel looks like a good thing at 8-1 on the morning line in the sixth race and we'll take a stand and use the D'Amato-trained colt as a straight play and rolling exotic single (and for the record, we're not expecting to get 8-1). The lightly-raced 3-year-old looked good graduating two runs back and then moved forward considerably when a troubled fourth in a very hot race won by future star Gimme D Lute in the Echo Eddie Stakes earlier this month. This will be his first try around two turns but he acts like he'll like it, and with a sharp recent six furlong drill to provide some bottom, the son of Grazen should be set for another major effort.

RACE 7:
The featured seventh race is the Wilshire Stakes for fillies and mares over a mile on grass; it's another contentious affair that may require a substantial spread. We'll go three deep but our confidence factor is low. #8 Birdlover looked good beating a lesser field over this course and distance last month and should be tough again, however, she's a need-the-lead type and will have to be sent a little from her outside post to get over and establish the pace. If Bejarano can accomplish this without much resistance, the English-bred mare probably will keep going. #4 Blingismything is genuine and consistent and switches to Baze. She should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position. #7 Indecise, a good second when beaten a half-length by Birdlover in the downhill Wishing Well Stakes, is just as effective two-turning and looks tough despite this being her first start in about 10 weeks.

RACE 8:
The nightcap is a middle distance maiden claimer with two main players. #4 Lucky Shoes to Win ran well routing at Los Alamitos two races back and stretches out again while dropping to his lowest level. With a sharp couple of recent works to his credit since his recent sprint comeback, the son of North Light should have every chance to earn his diploma. If you can get close to his morning line of 4-1, take it. #5 Fancy Shoes stretches out for Hendricks and should be a strong pace factor throughout. He's a strong fit in the speed figure department and seems like a logical exacta partner with Lucky Shoes to Win.

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