Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar First and Goal The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 11

Another pathetic week for model. Strong teams that put up gaudy early season numbers are falling apart, while early weaker teams are pulling upsets and covering left and right. I’ve spent a day adjusting team variables to more recent performance data, which I hope will turn things around. Dogs, since Week 8, are covering at a 60%+ clip, better than their very weak start of the season. Looking for a regression to the mean. (Also, posted the wrong score the other day for JAX @ HOU, where JAX, like the Giants, collapsed at the end, accounting for yet another model loss, smh). FWIW: score totals are holding strong at 56.1%. Overs are hitting 58.1% of the time, Unders at 40.5%. GLTA

Above projections include 1st Injury and line-up changes. Just a bug in the model.