NFL
7:10 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints
Both of these teams are expected to take a step back this year after posting impressive 2018 regular seasons. The Texans won the AFC South last year with an 11-5 record but their 2019 season win total is only 8 (-145 Over, +125 Under). Meanwhile the Saints went 13-3 and their win total is set at 10 (Over -115, Under -105). Houston is +3000 to win the Super Bowl and New Orleans is +1050. This game features two top MVP candidates in Deshaun Watson (+2500) and the ageless Drew Brees (+1300).
New Orleans opened as 7-point favorite and despite receiving a slight majority of bets, we've seen this line drop down to -6.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Texans, with pro bettors grabbing the road dog at the key number of +7. Since 2003, big dogs (+6.5 or more) have gone 62.7% ATS with +12.86 units won in Week 1.
The total opened at 54, the highest of any Week 1 game. The public sees two star quarterbacks who can put up points in a hurry, especially inside a dome. But we've seen the total fall to 52.5 even though nearly two-thirds of bets are taking the Over. This indicates smart money buying low on a contrarian Under with a high total. One edge to the Under: John Hussey is the lead ref. The under has cashed at a 61.% rate (+12.54 units) with Hussey as the lead umpire.
10:20 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
It's been a whirlwind summer for the Raiders. Spirits started off high when Oakland was featured on Hard Knocks. But then the Antonio Brown saga came to a crashing end when the star wideout demanded his release and signed with the Patriots. Oakland's Super Bowl odds plummeted from +4000 to +10000 in the process. Initially, the Raiders opened as 2.5-point home favorites against Denver. The combination of Brown's release, sharps steaming Denver and the public hammering the Broncos (roughly 70% of bets) has completely flipped this line to Denver -2.5.
There are some reasons to like Oakland, however. Divisional dogs are 3-1 ATS so far in Week 1 (Packers, Bills, Redskins) and are now 61% ATS since 2003. The Raiders are also in a great contrarian spot in a heavily bet game and you're getting several points of inflated line value (-2.5 to +2.5). Dogs with inflated lines at least a half point (think +1 to +1.5) went 4-1-1 ATS yesterday and are now 58.1% ATS in Week 1 since 2003.
The total opened at 43 and has ticked down to 42.5. The forecast calls for 10-13 mph winds. Since 2003, the under has cashed at a 55.6% clip (+62.54 units) when the wind is blowing at 10 MPH or more.
MLB
7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (89-55) at Philadelphia Phillies (74-68)
The Braves saw their 9-game winning streak come to an end yesterday, losing to Max Scherzer at the Nats 9-4 as +116 home dogs. Atlanta is running away with the AL East (up 9 games over the Nats with 18 games left). The Braves are +500 to win the pennant and +1400 to win the World Series (4th best odds behind Astros +205, Dodgers +240 and Yankees +700). Meanwhile, the Phillies (2 games back) are battling with the Brewers (2 games back) and Diamondbacks (1.5 games back) for the final Wild Card spot. This game means much more to the Phils than the Braves.
With ace Aaron Nola (12-4, 3.63 ERA) facing Mike Foltynewicz (5-5, 5.28 ERA), Philadelphia opened as -129 home favorites and the Braves a +119 dog. The public says give me the streaking Braves at plus money, pitching matchup be damned. But sharps are fading the trendy dog and have moved Philadelphia to -133. In terms of the total, Average Joes like the over but pros have gotten down on the under as its dropped from 9 to 8.5. Historically, when two good teams face off it leads to tighter, lower scoring games. Since 2005, if both teams have a win percentage of .510 or higher and the public is heavy on the over, the under has cashed at a 55.3% clip with +208.73 units won.
7:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (94-50) at Boston Red Sox (76-67)
The greatest rivalry in sports continues at Fenway on Monday night. But the stakes aren't very high. The Yankees are cruising to the postseason while the Red Sox sit 17.5 games back of New York in the AL East and 8 games back in the Wild card with only 19 games left. Boston's chances of making the playoffs are 0.1%. To make matters worse, the Red Sox fired Dave Dombrowski as president of baseball operations after last night's 10-5 loss to the Yankees.
Eduardo Rodriguez (17-5, 3.81 ERA) has been the lone brightspot on the Sox pitching staff and he opposes James Paxton (12-6, 4.16 ERA) tonight. Boston opened as short -108 favorites and heavy one-sided action has pounced on New York, flipping the line to Yankees -111. Sharps see a low-scoring game as well. The total opened at 10 and has been bet down to 9.5 despite a majority of bets taking the over.
