Re: The Unfair Advantage NFL/NBA
unfairadvantage
4 hours ago
Pending:
San Antonio Spurs +2.5 games in Series (NBA Finals) (-115) for 3 units
San Antonio Spurs to win Series (NBA Finals) +115 for 2 units
YTD: 11-5, +18.92 units
Can you believe the Knicks won by 1? They actually did, absolutely insane and bonkers and wild. How do humans bounce back from that also? They were -2 when I bet them and -2.5 by tip and I went on rants about how one should skip the ML weight.. and here we are. Sometimes it’s just dumb luck. NY was down 29 and came back at home to go up 3-1. Final tip was crazy. Throws a wrench in my personal stat in those situations, good thing I got lucky and happened to go ML. -130 compared to -2 is ok value … lol.. ironic.
So far, my series spread play or series play on the Spurs have not added value. I had better prices with them down 2-0 and again now down 3-1 to get Spurs to win the series.. reiterating that series bets are probably not for me. I had said earlier if Spurs come back and win it all, then I can consider doing series bets once after game 1. (Bc I’ll have had great prices on SAS this series.. and I saw that WCF after game 5 vs OKC ironically - even at -3.5 for game 6!) After game 1 of the series - if Spurs come back, yes to rare series bets. Separately, if Spurs win game 5 but do not cover, then yes to considering series games spreads plays. It’ll have saved me a win from a 1-1 ATS. If Spurs win and cover -5.5, then I’ll just have taken a 2-0 ATS and made it a more difficult 1-0 (my Spurs +2.5 games in series).
I think this finishes my 2026 case studies and helps me determine my gameplan moving forward.. 1. no moneyline plays (or any hopefully) heavier than -130, just bet it ATS, 2. no parlays - if you like the plays just bet both ATS, 3. don’t buy hooks (“key numbers” haven’t played a part for my plays personally in NBA. try to reduce vig - 95% of plays -119 or less vig), 4. never, ever, ever bet futures or to win the championship props.. if you like em to win it all, ride them ATS… and lastly, 5. Let this series play out to tell the tale on series bets.