Re: 10/20 Statistical Advantages
10/20/21 03:07 PM
NBA Sharp Action
7 p.m. ET: Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons
Both of these Central Division foes finished with sub .500 records and missed the playoffs last season, with the Bulls going 31-41 and the Pistons finishing 20-52. Chicago loaded up in the offseason, swinging a trade for DeMar Derozan and signing Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. The Pistons added top pick Cade Cunningham in the draft, although the Oklahoma State star is going to miss this game with a sprained ankle. This line opened with Chicago listed as a 3-point road favorite. Once Cunningham was ruled out, an overload of money steamed the Bulls, driving Chicago up from -3 to -5. The Bulls' win total this season is 42.5 at BetMGM. The Pistons' win total is 24.5. Chicago went a perfect 4-0 in the preseason. Detroit went 2-2.
8 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans
This non-conference showdown is one of the most heavily bet games of the night, thanks in large part to the drama created by the suspended and insubordinate star of the 76ers, Ben Simmons. The 76ers finished 49-23 last season and the Pelicans 31-41. The early lookahead line on this game was Philadelphia -1 on the road. Heavy 76ers money steamed this line all the way up to -4.5. Once the news of Simmons missing this game with suspension broke, the line quickly dropped from 4.5 to 3. Essentially all late money is breaking toward the Pelicans at home getting points. New Orleans is also one of your top contrarian plays of the night. Philadelphia's win total is 50.5. New Orleans' win total is 39.5.
8 p.m. ET: Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies
These non-conference opponents finished with polar opposite campaigns last season. The Cavs went 22-50 while the Grizzlies went 38-34 and made the playoffs. This line opened with Memphis listed as an 8-point home favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover the Grizzlies. However, despite this lopsided betting towards Memphis, the line has fallen from 8 to 7.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement grabbing the points with the road dog Cavs. Over the past decade, backing teams on Opening Night who has 25 or less wins the previous year has covered at roughly a 60-percent clip. Cleveland's win total is 26.5 and Memphis' 41.5.
More Wednesday Moves
Celtics-Knicks Over 216 to 218.5
Pacers-Hornets Under 228 to 223.5
Kings-Blazers Over 230.5 to 232.5
Kings 5.5 to 5 at Blazers
Magic-Spurs Under 214 to 212.5
Knicks -1 to -2 vs Celtics