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MOV PROJECTION

Duke vs UConn
MOV: Duke by 2–6
- Tight game
- 5.5 sits above the most common landing zone

Michigan vs Tennessee
MOV: Michigan by 6–10
- Michigan control
- Tennessee fights but margin can stretch

TIME OF DEATH

UConn vs Duke
TOD: None / Final minute
- UConn stays alive the entire game
- No collapse point

Tennessee vs Michigan
TOD: Mid‑late second half
- Tennessee hangs early
- Michigan separates around 6–8 minutes left

CHAOS RATING

Duke vs UConn
Chaos: 78 (High)
- Runs
- Pace spikes
- Shot‑making volatility

Michigan vs Tennessee
Chaos: 59 (Low–Moderate)
- Michigan controls tempo
- Tennessee inconsistent but not wild

DANGER INDEX

Duke ‑5.5
Danger: 83 (High)
- Duke is the public side
- UConn is the sharp dog
- Line sits in a danger zone

Michigan ‑7.5
Danger: 62 (Moderate)
- Michigan is strong
- Tennessee can annoy
- But not a high‑danger favorite

MODEL CONFIDENCE

Duke vs UConn
Confidence: 64 (Low)
- Too many swing variables
- Pace volatility
- Sharp/public split

Michigan vs Tennessee
Confidence: 82 (High)
- Predictable
- Stable
- Clear matchup edges

SHOT PROFILE MISMATCHES

Duke vs UConn
Mismatch: Even
- Duke perimeter
- UConn interior
- No clear edge

Michigan vs Tennessee
Mismatch: Michigan advantage
- Better rim pressure
- Better spacing
- Tennessee gives up clean looks

TIER SUMMARY

Duke vs UConn (Duke ‑5.5)
Tier: B
- Trap
- Chaos
- Danger
- Low confidence

Michigan vs Tennessee (Michigan ‑7.5)
Tier: Near‑A
- Stable
- Predictable
- Clean matchup edges

GAME‑FLOW SCRIPT

Duke vs UConn
Script:
Fast pace early, runs both ways, no separation. Duke hits bursts, UConn answers with physicality. Game lives inside 1–2 possessions for 35+ minutes. Final minute decides it.

Michigan vs Tennessee
Script:
Tennessee starts strong, Michigan stabilizes, then gradually takes control. Margin grows in the mid‑second half. Tennessee makes a push but Michigan keeps it in the 6–10 range.

Final Four

Trap Rating
- UConn vs Illinois: HIGH — UConn as a dog is the classic trap.
- Arizona vs Michigan: HIGH — Arizona as a dog is the classic trap.

Volatility Index
- UConn–Illinois: MEDIUM — Illinois’ offense creates swings.
- Arizona–Michigan: HIGH — Michigan is a chaos generator.

Dog Cover Likelihood
- UConn: Strong — they don’t get run off the floor.
- Arizona: Strong — they stabilize games.

Upset Probability
- UConn over Illinois: Very live.
- Arizona over Michigan: Very live.

Public Lean
- UConn–Illinois: Public leans UConn.
- Arizona–Michigan: Public leans Arizona.
Both dogs are public dogs — always a warning sign.

Sharp Lean
- UConn–Illinois: Sharps lean Illinois.
- Arizona–Michigan: Sharps lean Michigan.

Line Behavior
- UConn–Illinois: Books holding IL ‑1.5 steady.
- Arizona–Michigan: Books toggling pk/‑1.5 toward Michigan.
No book wants to give you a cheap favorite.

Chaos Rating
- UConn–Illinois: Medium.
- Arizona–Michigan: High.
Michigan’s volatility pushes this one into the red zone.

Danger Index (Favorite fragility)
- Illinois: High — defensive issues.
- Michigan: High — matchup issues.

MOV Shape
- UConn–Illinois: 2–6 points either way.
- Arizona–Michigan: 1–5 points either way.
Both games are coin‑flip MOV shapes.

Shot Profile Risk
- UConn: Advantage — Illinois gives up the shots UConn wants.
- Arizona: Advantage — Michigan gives up rim + corner 3s.
Both dogs have the better shot profile.

Tier Summary

- UConn vs Illinois:
Trap: HIGH
Volatility: MEDIUM
Dog cover: HIGH
Upset: LIVE
- → Tier: CHAOS COINFLIP

- Arizona vs Michigan:
Trap: HIGH
Volatility: HIGH
Dog cover: HIGH
Upset: LIVE
→ Tier: CHAOS COINFLIP

GAME FLOW SCRIPT — UCONN vs ILLINOIS

Illinois comes out hot — they always do. First four minutes feel like they’re landing clean jabs: quick actions, early-clock threes, downhill drives. UConn absorbs it without blinking. They don’t panic. They don’t speed up. They just start tightening the screws.
By the 8‑minute mark, the pace has slowed. Illinois is still scoring, but every bucket is harder. UConn starts stacking offensive rebounds, second‑chance points, and quiet 6‑0 runs that don’t feel loud but flip the scoreboard.
Mid‑game, Illinois hits their volatility stretch — a 10–12 point burst where they look unstoppable. This is their best window. If they’re going to win, it happens here.
But UConn survives it.
Late second half, the game becomes a half‑court grind. Illinois’ legs get heavy. UConn’s physicality shows. The possessions get longer. The shots get tougher. The rebounding gap becomes the separator.
Final four minutes: UConn is the more stable team. Illinois needs shot‑making. UConn needs execution. One team can manufacture points; the other needs to hit them.
That’s the difference.

GAME FLOW SCRIPT — ARIZONA vs MICHIGAN

Michigan comes out loose — nothing to lose, everything to gain. They push pace early, try to create chaos, try to make Arizona uncomfortable. They hit a couple early threes, maybe even grab a small lead.
Arizona doesn’t flinch.
By the 6‑minute mark, Arizona starts getting the shots they want: rim touches, post seals, corner threes. Michigan’s defense starts bending. Arizona’s size shows up on the glass.
Mid‑game, Michigan hits their volatility window — a 7–0 or 9–2 run that feels like the game is tilting. This is where Arizona’s maturity matters. They slow the game down, run real offense, and stop the bleeding.
Second half, Arizona’s physicality and balance start to take over. Michigan’s shot profile becomes tougher. Arizona’s becomes cleaner. The game shifts from chaos to structure.
Final five minutes: Michigan is relying on shot‑making. Arizona is relying on execution. Michigan needs a heater. Arizona needs discipline.
Arizona’s floor is higher. Michigan’s ceiling is higher. The game decides which one shows up.

MODEL CONFIDENCE — FINAL FOUR

UConn vs Illinois
Model Confidence: 74 (MODERATE)
Why:
• Illinois’ volatility spikes the variance
• UConn’s structure stabilizes the floor
• Shot‑making swings are real
• Not a chaos game, but not clean either
This is a moderate‑confidence coinflip with controlled edges.

Arizona vs Michigan
Model Confidence: 68 (LOW)
Why:
• Michigan is a chaos generator
• Arizona is stable but not immune to pace swings
• High‑variance shot profile
Line behavior matches a dangerous game
This is a low‑confidence volatility game — the model hates the noise.

DANGER INDEX
(How dangerous the matchup is to the favorite — not a prediction, just fragility.)
Scale:
- 90–100 = Extreme Danger
- 80–89 = High Danger
- 70–79 = Moderate Danger
- 60–69 = Low Danger
- Below 60 = Very Low Danger

UConn vs Illinois
Danger Index: 82 (High Danger)
Why:
- Illinois volatility
- UConn as a dog
- Trap line
- Shot‑making swings
- Favorite fragility

Arizona vs Michigan
Danger Index: 85 (High Danger)
Why:
- Michigan chaos profile
- Arizona as a dog
- Line toggling
- High‑variance matchup
- Favorite fragility

Time of Death

UConn vs Illinois
TOD: Very Late
UConn rarely dies early. Illinois’ defense keeps games close.

Arizona vs Michigan
TOD: Very Late
Arizona doesn’t die early. Michigan’s volatility keeps it close.

Both dogs have long survival curves.

DOG SURVIVABILITY

- Low / Medium / High / Very High

UConn vs Illinois
Survivability: Very High
UConn doesn’t get blown out. Ever.

Arizona vs Michigan
Survivability: Very High
Arizona’s floor is too high for early collapse.