Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar First and Goal NFLX Wk 2 Sat 8/22 Plays – Power Ratings & Systems

Will put everything for today in one post instead of having one for the PR’s and one for the Systems.

So, terrible night last night as well as a bad Thursday. I went 1-7 over those two nights! Including 0-3 on 2H plays. But last week was good (of course, not posted here ☹), as I went 13-7-1 so I’m now 14-14-1 for the preseason. Yes, I do play a lot of games due to what my PR’s and Systems’ Plays spit along with some second half plays.

Also interesting to note that overs are 4-1 this week after going 4-11-1 (per my lines) last week. When we have anomalous results in the short term the market does tend to regress back to the mean. I have seen this happen before.

Also of note is that home teams now stand at 7-13-1 with home favorites only 1-9. Conversely, dogs are 15-3-1(!) and home dogs are 6-2-1. So, look for more regression in these categories as well…

So, for today:

BUF/CLE -3
BUF/CLE ov 37

PR line is CLE -11.9. Interesting that they looked bad in their loss at Chicago last week by a score of 34-10 and the Bills looked good in the home win over Carolina, 29-14. Even so, the Browns are the solid favorites which my PR’s agree with. I think the QB battle in Cleveland between Sanders and Watson should help which also leads to playing the over. Off/Def PR score is CLE 29.6 – 23.6 for a total of 53.1 pts.

ATL/IND -2

I got this earlier in the week so this number is long gone, looks like -3.5 now. My PR line has Indy -15.9. They are off a 13-13 tie with NE last week but would have won that game easily if not for 4 turnovers. I think they bounce back here with a comfortable home win.

NYG/MIA +3’

PR line is MIA -6.7. More starters likely play for the Fins including Malik Willis. Jaxson Dart likely does not play for the Giants. Don’t see why the G-Men are favored by over a FG on the road here, likely due to Harbaugh’s stellar preseason record with the Ravens, but I don’t think that should be the case. He had much better rosters at Baltimore.


SYSTEM: If a Team Scored < 10 pts Play the Over in their Next Game (2-0)

Three more plays today after winning with overs in LV/HOU on Thursday and GB/DEN last night. I’ve played the first two.

ATL/IND ov 36.5
NYG/MIA ov 36
PHI/NE ov 36

5-Yr Record: 21-14 10-6 last 2 Yrs

Good luck!!

2-2 so far today, but PR side plays have been way off the mark. And Miami is not looking good at the moment down 23-3 late in Q3.

Next up:

Another mismatch according to my PR’s:

+1’ CHI/CIN

PR line in CHI -16.2. I bet this earlier in the week, so this line is long gone and it’s looking like the Bears are now -2.5 or -3.

And this system also supports this play:

Play on a Team off a Win by 20+ Points (0-2)

0-2 so far this year with the Chargers getting dusted by the Niners 41-17 and the Green Bay blowout of the mighty Broncos by a score of 33-13. However, this system is 14-6 over the last 5 years including 8-1 in the last two.