Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar First and Goal The Limper NFL 2026-27 – Week 1

Way back, when internet sports forums numbered in the double figures and I was doing my first NBA projections, I thought it was a snap. The first few weeks, I was nailing it, and I had visions of being in the running for the Fields Medal, or being crowned the Handicapper King, but then…

But then, the Gods of Numbers showed up and said hold your horses little man, and kicked me in the teeth with something they called ‘reversion to the mean’, and suddenly, finding winners became harder than picking my nose with an elbow. It was truly humiliating, and I thought of throwing in the towel altogether, and go back to starring in porn videos, but then…

A guy named Rose told me to put my pants back on, and just get to work; so, I kept punching; revising the algorithm, adding and subtracting variables, changing weights, etc. until I now, at long last, have achieved perfection!

Well, maybe a little less than perfection – but I’m still trying.

As some may know, my NFL model needs 3 full weeks of data to run, so for the first month of the season, I’ll be using year-old numbers (along with a handful of team unit updates), just to get the model started. The algorithm uses team and player stats and team unit matchups for each game. Also, as the NFL runs on injuries (or doesn’t), I’ll be posting several times a week: Tuesdays, after the prior week’s stats are in, Wednesdays after the first injury updates are posted, Saturdays for further updates for Sundays games, and then late Sundays or early Mondays for MNF.

I grade the model’s ATS efficacy by using the last posted MOV (projected margin of victory) and the Closing Vegas lines as reported by VIsN. That means that pick-flips happen; it all depends on those pesky closing lines, but it’s the best way I know to grade the model. It should therefore be apparent that the model’s posted projected ATS winner is NOT a recommendation (I am not a tout), but more like a data-driven suggestion, a guide to your own judgment.

Now, as perfect as I and the model are, sometimes my staff can make mistakes, so don’t hesitate to point out errors or bugs when you see them.

And, I hope you all have a good season.

WJCJR

Thank you

Worth mentioning: the model’s target is always the projected margin of victory (MOV), which, if my staff remembers to do it, is always highlighted; and, if highlighted, SU Favorites will not change regardless of line changes. ATS Picks, on the other hand, can change depending on the Current Lines, especially VSIN consensus closing lines, which occasionally results in pick-flips, depending – and is used for record-keeping. (For example, if the closing line in today’s game should drop to Seattle -2.5, the model’s pick would flip to SEA -2.5 (which is under the unchanging MOV of 2.7.) All of which means the MOV should be your guide, and not the model’s initial ATS Picks
I have an app which sweeps the final closing lines of all the sports books used in determining VSIN’s consensus every 3 weeks (some of them are very slow to post), which may result in changes to the Season Record.

GLTA

Thanks for posting, WJCJR.

Very interesting!!

I am planning on doing some sports modeling as well, but just not there yet.

Good luck!!

-Dave

Did you ever think about tracking this for O/U too?

Once in a while I give O/U a shot, but, inevitably, it misses. The way the algorithm is constructed just isn't wired for totals.

OOPS