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9/26 Statistical Advantages
#972107 09/21/26 04:45 AM
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Re: 9/26 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #972915 09/25/26 04:42 PM
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Lake Grove
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CFB TRENDS


Texas (-4) @ Tennessee
Texas (3-0)
Texas won its three games, 59-7/24-23 (Ohio State)/30-6
Longhorns have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Longhorns have 86 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Manning has 15 career starts.
Manning’s uncle Peyton was a pretty good QB at Tennessee.

Under Sarkisian, Texas is 7-10 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Sarkisian is 12-15 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Sarkisian is 49-52-1 ATS in conference games.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 20-24-1 ATS in non-conference games.

Tennessee (3-0)
Tennessee won its I-A games, 45-24/24-9.
Tennessee has 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Vols have 94 returning starts on the offensive line;
Frosh QB Brandon has thrown 6 TD passes, no INTs.

Under Heupel, Tennessee is 3-4 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Heupel is 4-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Heupel, Vols are 21-21-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 17-22-1 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Heupel is 28-35-1 ATS in conference games.

These teams haven’t met in the last 25 years.

Wake Forest @ Louisville (-13.5)
Wake Forest (2-1, 0-1)
Wake Forest beat Akron 38-16, Purdue 38-36 OT.
Deacons lost last week, 33-20 at home to Miami.
Deacons have 3 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Wake Forest has 25 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Lopez has 23 starts (South Alabama/UNC)

In his career, coach Dickert is 6-7-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, coach Dickert is 14-9-1 ATS as an underdog.
Under Dickert, Wake is 5-3 ATS as an underdog.
Under Dickert, Wake is 6-3 ATS in ACC games.
In his career, Dickert is 12-8 ATS in games coming off a loss.

Louisville (2-1, 1-0)
Louisville lost 41-38 to Ole Miss, beat SMU 41-31.
Cardinals have 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Louisville has 142 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Kienholz was a backup at Ohio State for two years.

Under Brohm, Louisville is 9-10 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Brohm is 28-30 as a home favorite.
Under Brohm, Cardinals are 11-15 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Brohm is 54-50 ATS in conference games.

Teams split their last six meetings.
Teams haven’t met since 2022.

UCLA (-1.5) @ Maryland
UCLA (3-0, 1-0)
UCLA won its one road game, 45-24 at California.
Bruins’ wins: 45-24 @ Cal, 28-10 San Diego St., 52-38 Purdue
UCLA has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Bruins have 124 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Iamaleava has 25 career starts.

UCLA is 6-3 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
In his career, Chesney is 5-5-1 ATS as a road favorite.
UCLA is 4-5 ATS in last nine non-conference games.
In his career, Chesney is 10-2 ATS non-conference games.
UCLA is 6-8-1 ATS last 15 games coming off a win.

Maryland (2-1)
Terps won 38-14 @ UConn, lost 35-26 to Virginia Tech.
Maryland gave up 314 passing yards to the Hokies.
Maryland has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Terps have 75 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Washington started 12 games last year.

Under Locksley, Maryland is 9-11 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Locksley is 15-19 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Locksley, Terps are 24-40 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Locksley is 32-49-1 ATS in conference games.

UCLA (-3) beat Maryland 20-17 last year.
Bruins outgained Maryland, 414-337

Oklahoma @ Georgia (-13.5)
Oklahoma (2-1)
Oklahoma lost only road game, 17-10 at Michigan.
Last two weeks, Sooners were held to 289-299 yards.
Oklahoma has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Sooners have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Mateer has 24 career starts.

Under Venables, Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Since 2016, Oklahoma is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Venables, Sooners are 15-19-1 ATS in conference games.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 13-19-1 ATS in games coming off a win

Georgia (3-0, 1-0)
Georgia won its I-A games, 70-20/45-17.
Dawgs ran ball for 234/254 yards in those games.
Dawgs have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Georgia has 66 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Stockton has 14 career starts.

Last three years, Georgia is 6-13-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Smart is 22-36-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Smart is 46-52-1 ATS as a favorite.
In his career, Smart is 52-41 ATS in SEC games.
Dawgs are 10-19-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.

These teams haven’t met since 2017.

Ole Miss @ Florida (-3.5)
Ole Miss (3-0, 1-0)
Ole Miss scored 41-41-32 points in their wins.
Letdown spot after Rebels beat LSU 32-24 last week.
Rebels have 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Rebels have 92 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Chambliss started 13 games last year.

Ole Miss is 14-10 ATS last 24 games as an underdog.
Since 2021, Rebels are 2-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Rebels are 15-17-2 ATS in last 34 SEC games.
Ole Miss is 18-14-2 ATS in last 34 games coming off a win.
Former Kentucky coach Stoops is an analyst for the Rebels.

Florida (3-0, 1-0)
Gators (-27) won their SEC opener 44-39 at Auburn
Florida ran ball for 281-243 yards in their I-A wins.
Florida has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Gators have 70 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Philo was at Georgia Tech for two years.

Since 2020, Gators are 6-10 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Sumrall is 18-12 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Sumrall is 26-10-1 ATS in conference games.
Florida is 17-15 ATS in last 32 SEC games.
In his career, Sumrall is 30-15-1 ATS as a favorite.

Home team won this game the last two years.
Underdogs covered seven of last eight meetings.

Iowa @ Michigan (-5.5)
Iowa (3-0)
Iowa won its I-A games, 40-0/16-13 (Iowa State)
Hawkeyes held their I-A opponents to 120/255 total yards.
Hawkeyes have 5 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Hawkeyes have 27 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Brown has three career starts.

Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS last 13 games as a road underdog.
In his career, Ferentz is 37-31-2 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Ferentz is 126-95-7 ATS in conference games.
Iowa is 8-2 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.

Michigan (3-0)
Michigan scored 13-17-52 points in its three wins
Wolverines is 3-0 despite being minus-2 in turnovers.
Wolverines have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Michigan has 64 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Underwood has 14 career starts.

Michigan is 8-13-2 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Whittingham is 59-47-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Michigan is 8-10 ATS in last 13 conference games.
In his career, Whittingham is 100-82-1 in conference games.
Michigan is 7-11 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.

Michigan won/covered last four series games.
Teams haven’t met since 2023.
Hawkeyes are 1-3-1 ATS last five visits to Ann Arbor.

TCU (-3) @ Central Florida
TCU (2-1)
TCU lost 15-10 to UNC in Ireland, beat Arkansas State 31-7
TCU has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Craig started 11 games at Harvard last year.

Under Dykes, TCU is 20-17-2 ATS as a favorite.
In his career, Dykes is 50-49-2 ATS as a favorite.
Under Dykes, TCU is 4-4-2 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Dykes is 14-21-2 ATS as a road favorite.

Central Florida (2-1)
UCF lost 12-7 at Pitt, beat Georgia State 44-30.
Knights ran ball for 304 yards vs Georgia State
Knights have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
UCF has 60 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Barnett started 14 games at JMU last year.

Since 2017, UCF is 3-2 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Frost is 5-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Frost is 28-31-2 ATS in conference games.
UCF is 5-13-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.
In his career, Frost is 22-18-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.

UCF (+2.5) won 35-34 at TCU two years ago.
Knights ran for 289 yards in that game.

Texas A&M @ LSU (-8.5)
Texas A&M (2-1, 0-1)
A&M (-40) beat Missouri State 50-0, Arizona State (-14) 48-20.
A&M lost SEC opener 31-21 at home to Kentucky.
Aggies have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
A&M has 81 returning starts on OL, from various places.
Junior QB Reed has 21 career starts.

In his career, Elko is 8-5 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2001, A&M is 0-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Aggies are 12-18-3 ATS in last 33 conference games.
In his career, Elko is 17-16 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Elko is 6-8 ATS in games coming off a loss.

LSU (2-1, 0-1)
LSU lost SEC opener 32-24 at Ole Miss last week.
Tigers threw ball for 335-381 yards in wins, 158 in the loss.
LSU has 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
LSU has 121 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Leavitt started 20 games at Arizona State.

LSU is 5-7 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
In his college career, Kiffin is 41-37-3 ATS as a home favorite.
LSU is 6-11 ATS in its last 17 SEC games.
In his college career, Kiffin is 57-53-3 ATS in conference games.
Kiffin is 25-22 ATS in college games coming off a loss.

Texas A&M won three of last four series games.
Aggies are 1-6 SU/1-5-1 ATS last seven visits to LSU
Last five meetings went over the total.

Oregon (-3) @ USC
Oregon (2-1)
Oregon lost only road game, 39-31 at Oklahoma State
Ducks beat Boise State 34-27 in there other I-A game.
Oregon has 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Ducks have 52 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Moore has 20 career starts.

Under Lanning, Ducks are 12-7 ATS overall as a road favorite.
Since 2018, Oregon is 19-11 ATS as a road favorite.
Oregon is 28-18 ATS last 46 games coming off a win
Under Lanning, Ducks are 24-16 ATS in conference games.

USC (4-0, 1-0)
USC won Big 18 opener 42-35 at Rutgers last week.
Trojans gave up 30-35 points in their last two weeks.
USC has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Trojans have 79 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Maiava threw for 3,711 yards last season.

Since 2016, Trojans are 4-3 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Riley is 1-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Riley, USC is 14-24 ATS in conference games.
USC is 7-17-1 ATS last 25 games coming off a win.

Oregon is 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS last seven series games.
This is Ducks’ first visit to USC since 2020.
Over is 7-3 in last ten meetings.

Missouri @ Mississippi State (-6)
Missouri (3-0)
Mizzou won its first two I-A games, 38-21/27-17
Troy State outgained Mizzou 323-230 last week.
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Tigers have 118 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Simmons started two games at Ole Miss.

Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 16-14-1 ATS as an underdog.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 8-10 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Drinkwitz is 19-14-1 ATS as an underdog.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 27-22-1 ATS in SEC games.

Mississippi State (3-0, 1-0)
Miss State won its first two games, 62-13/38-13/41-34.
Bulldogs gave up 431 yards in 41-34 win at South Carolina LW.
Bulldogs have 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Bulldogs have 45 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Taylor started two games LY.

Under Lebby, Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Lebby, Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Lebby, Bulldogs are 9-7-1 ATS in SEC games.
Under Lebby, Miss State is 6-2-1 ATS in games coming off a win.

Mizzou beat Miss State the last two years, 49-27/39-20.
Mizzou ran ball for 326/204 yards in those games.


God bless all our first responders and all the special medical professionals who dedicate their lives to saving and caring for us all!
Re: 9/26 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #973034 09/26/26 02:05 AM
Joined: Apr 2023
Posts: 3,064
Likes: 75
Lake Grove
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MLB TRENDS

NY METS @ WASHINGTON
Sep 26 • 12:35 PM ET

Over is 3-0-2 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.
Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 4-0 in Irvins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Over is 7-1-1 in Mets last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 6-1 in Mets last 7 vs. National League East.
Over is 10-1-1 in Mets last 12 during game 2 of a series.

PITTSBURGH @ DETROIT
Sep 26 • 1:10 PM ET

Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
Over is 5-0 in Verlanders last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Pirates are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 overall.
Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 on grass.

CINCINNATI @ TORONTO
Sep 26 • 3:07 PM ET

Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 vs. National League Central.
Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 7-1 in Blue Jays last 8 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.

LA DODGERS @ SAN FRANCISCO
Sep 26 • 4:05 PM ET

Under is 4-0-2 in Dodgers last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 overall.
Under is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 road games.
Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 vs. National League West.
Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.

ATLANTA @ MIAMI
Sep 26 • 4:10 PM ET

Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-0 in Alcantaras last 5 starts on grass.
Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 5-0 in Alcantaras last 5 starts overall.
Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 vs. National League East.
Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a home favorite.
Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
Over is 7-1 in Marlins last 8 home games.

TEXAS @ MINNESOTA
Sep 26 • 4:10 PM ET

Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
Under is 3-0-1 in Twins last 4 overall.
Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 home games.
Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
Under is 3-0-1 in Twins last 4 on grass.
Under is 3-0-1 in Twins last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY
Sep 26 • 7:10 PM ET

Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 vs. American League Central.
Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 overall.
Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 vs. American League Central.
Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 on grass.
Over is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 overall.
Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.

COLORADO @ CHI. WHITE SOX
Sep 26 • 7:10 PM ET

Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 overall.
Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 road games.
Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 games as a road underdog.
Under is 3-0-1 in Rockies last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 on grass.
Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 during game 2 of a series.
Under is 3-0-1 in Rockies last 4 interleague games.

ST. LOUIS @ MILWAUKEE
Sep 26 • 7:10 PM ET

Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
Under is 5-0 in Mathews' last 5 starts on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 overall.
Under is 5-0 in Mathews' last 5 starts overall.
Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Mathews' last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.

TAMPA BAY @ PHILADELPHIA
Sep 26 • 7:15 PM ET

Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 vs. American League East.
Rays are 8-1 in their last 9 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 games as a home underdog.
Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-1 in Rays last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
Over is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 games as a road favorite.
Over is 6-2 in Jaxs last 8 starts on grass.

ARIZONA @ SAN DIEGO
Sep 26 • 8:40 PM ET

Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 home games.
Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 games as a home favorite.
Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Under is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 games as an underdog.
Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.

HOUSTON @ ATHLETICS
Sep 26 • 9:40 PM ET

Over is 6-0 in last 6 home games.
Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Athletics.
Over is 5-0 in last 5 games a home underdog.
Over is 6-0 in last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 6-1-1 in Astros last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Over is 5-1-1 in last 7 overall.
Under is 8-2 in Astros last 10 games as a favorite.

LA ANGELS @ SEATTLE
Sep 26 • 9:40 PM ET

Over is 5-0 in Angels last 5 road games.
Over is 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 overall.
Under is 5-0-1 in Johnsons last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 on grass.
Under is 5-0 in Johnsons last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Over is 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-0 in Angels last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.


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