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 10/17 Statistical Advantages
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 Re: 10/17 Statistical Advantages
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Joined: Apr 2023
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NCAAF TRENDS
Ohio State (-3.5) @ Indiana Ohio State (5-1, 3-0) Ohio State won its three Big 18 games, scoring 42-31-45 points. Buckeyes’ only loss was 24-23 at Texas. Ohio State has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense. Buckeyes have 89 returning starts on the offensive line. Soph QB Sayin has 15 career starts.
Texas was only team that held them under 449 total yards. OSU is 5-1 ATS last six games as a road favorite. Under Day, OSU is 17-11-3 ATS as a road favorite. Buckeyes are 15-8 ATS in last 23 conference games. Three of their last four games went over the total.
Indiana (6-0, 3-0) Hoosiers won their Big 18 games, 29-23/47-15/20-17. Three of their last four games went over. Hoosiers have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense. Hoosiers have 119 returning starts on the offensive line. Senior QB Hoover started 31 games at TCU.
Under Cignetti, Indiana is 1-1 ATS as an underdog. In his I-A career, Cignetti is 3-2 ATS as an underdog. In 35 games under Cignetti, Indiana is +40 in turnovers. In his career, Cignetti is 15-8 ATS in Big 18 games. Under Cignetti, Indiana is 20-10 ATS in games coming off a win.
Indiana (+4) upset Ohio State 13-10 in Big 18 title game LY. Buckeyes are 14-1 SU/5-10 ATS in last fifteen meetings. Ohio State is 8-3 ATS in last 11 visits to Indiana. Over is 7-2 in last nine series games.
Florida @ Texas (-11.5) Florida (4-2, 2-2) Gators lost their last two games, 45-17/38-19. Four of their five I-A games went over. Florida has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense. Gators have 70 returning starts on the offensive line. Soph QB Philo was at Georgia Tech for two years.
Gators are 8-7 ATS last 15 games as a road underdog. In his career, Sumrall is 6-4 ATS as a home favorite. In his career, Sumrall is 27-12-1 ATS in conference games. Florida is 18-17 ATS in last 35 SEC games. Last three weeks, Florida gave up 426-560-393 yards.
Texas (4-1, 1-1) Texas got upset by rival Oklahoma LW, 27-24 in Dallas. Texas held last three opponents to 142-221-238 total yards Longhorns have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense. Longhorns have 86 returning starts on the offensive line. Soph QB Manning has 15 career starts.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 26-26-1 ATS as a favorite. In his career, Sarkisian is 48-42-1 ATS as a favorite. Under Sarkisian, Texas is 19-14-1 ATS as a home favorite. In his career, Sarkisian is 49-54-1 ATS in conference games. Under Sarkisian, Texas is 20-26-1 ATS in conference games. Three of Longhorns’ last four games stayed under the total.
Home team won both meetings the last two years. Gators lost 49-17 in Austin two years ago. SEC home favorites are 8-7 ATS in conference games.
Northwestern (-7) @ Michigan State Northwestern (4-1, 1-1) Northwestern scored 34+ points in its three I-A wins. Wildcats lost only road game, 29-23 at Indiana. Wildcats have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense. Northwestern has 43 returning starts on the offensive line. Senior QB Chiles started 20 games at Michigan State.
Northwestern is road favorite for first time since 2021. Under Braun, Wildcats are 13-6-1 ATS in games coming off a win. Under Braun, Wildcats are 17-11-1 ATS in conference games. Under Braun, Northwestern is +15 in turnovers (minus-19 in 2022). Over is 3-0-1 in their I-A games.
Michigan State (2-4, 0-3) Spartans lost last four games. giving up 31-31-38 in last three. New coach Fitzgerald played/coached at Northwestern MSU has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense. Spartans have 72 returning starts on the offensive line. Soph QB Milivojevic started four games last year.
Spartans were held under 260 TY in three of last four games. Spartans are 5-9 ATS last 14 games as a home underdog. In his career, Fitzgerald is 21-24-1 ATS as a home underdog. Spartans are 16-21-2 ATS in last 39 conference games. Under is 4-1 in Michigan State’s last five games.
Michigan State won/covered last three series games. Wildcats on six of last eight visits to East Lansing. Underdogs are 8-0 ATS in last eight meetings at MSU. Big 18 home underdogs are 6-6 ATS in conference play.
Alabama (-7.5) @ Tennessee Alabama (5-1, 3-1) Alabama was outgained 455-346 in 20-17 loss to Georgia LW. Alabama scored 45+ points in all their wins. Alabama has 3 starters back on offense, 7 on defense. Crimson Tide has 30 returning starts on the offensive line. Frosh QB Russell has 11 TD passes, two INTs.
Under DeBoer, Alabama is 5-5-1 ATS as a road favorite. In his career, DeBoer is 13-12-1 as a road favorite. Crimson Tide is 20-10-1 ATS in its last 30 SEC games. In his career, DeBoer is 28-26-1 ATS in conference games. Alabama is 10-3 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss. Five of their six games went over the total.
Tennessee (5-1, 2-1) Tennessee won its last two games, 24-14/24-17. Vols’ only loss was 20-17 at home to Texas. Tennessee has 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense. Vols have 94 returning starts on the offensive line; Frosh QB McIntyre is the starter now.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 4-4 ATS as a home underdog. In his career, Heupel is 5-4 ATS as a home underdog. Under Heupel, Vols are 23-23-1 ATS in games coming off a win. Under Heupel, Tennessee is 19-23-1 ATS in conference games. In his career, Heupel is 30-36-1 ATS in conference games. Last four Tennessee games stayed under the total.
Teams split last four series games. Before that, Alabama had won 15 in a row vs Tennessee. Crimson Tide lost last two visits to Knoxville, 24-17/52-49. Over is 9-5 in last fourteen meetings.
God bless all our first responders and all the special medical professionals who dedicate their lives to saving and caring for us all!
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 Re: 10/17 Statistical Advantages
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Joined: Apr 2023
Posts: 5,294 Likes: 704 New England
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NHL Trends
NEW JERSEY @ WASHINGTON Oct 17 • 1:00 PM ET Under is 2-0-2 in Devils last 4 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Over is 3-0-1 in Devils last 4 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. Capitals are 6-1 in their last 7 home games. Under is 4-1-1 in Capitals last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. Capitals are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. Metropolitan. Under is 5-1 in Capitals last 6 games as a home underdog. Capitals are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite. Capitals are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.
CAROLINA @ WINNIPEG Oct 17 • 3:30 PM ET Hurricanes are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Under is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 games as a road underdog. Under is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 games as an underdog. Over is 6-1-1 in Hurricanes last 8 vs. Western Conference. Over is 6-1-2 in Hurricanes last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 11-2-1 in Jets last 14 vs. Metropolitan. Under is 4-1 in Jets last 5 overall. Home team is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
VANCOUVER @ TAMPA BAY Oct 17 • 4:00 PM ET Over is 3-0-1 in Lightning last 4 games as an underdog. Under is 4-0 in Canucks last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 4-0-1 in Lightning last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Under is 6-1 in Lightning last 7 home games. Over is 6-1 in Lightning last 7 vs. Pacific. Under is 6-1 in Lightning last 7 games as a home favorite. Lightning are 5-1 in their last 6 overall. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Tampa Bay.
SEATTLE @ FLORIDA Oct 17 • 6:00 PM ET Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 vs. Western Conference. Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games as a favorite. Panthers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Kraken are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 4-0 in Kraken last 4 games as an underdog. Panthers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Panthers are 5-1 in their last 6 home games. Over is 5-1 in Kraken last 6 overall.
BUFFALO @ MONTREAL Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET Over is 6-0 in Sabres last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. Over is 4-0-2 in Sabres last 6 games as a favorite. Over is 5-0 in Sabres last 5 vs. Atlantic. Over is 4-0 in Sabres last 4 road games. Canadiens are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Atlantic. Over is 2-0-2 in Canadiens last 4 games as an underdog. Over is 5-1 in Canadiens last 6 overall. Over is 5-1 in Sabres last 6 games as a road underdog.
NY ISLANDERS @ TORONTO Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET Over is 5-0 in Maple Leafs last 5 overall. Under is 4-0-1 in Islanders last 5 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 4-0 in Islanders last 4 games as a favorite. Under is 4-0 in Islanders last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 6-1 in Islanders last 7 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Over is 5-1 in Maple Leafs last 6 games as an underdog. Under is 7-2-1 in Islanders last 10 overall. Over is 5-1-1 in Islanders last 7 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
SAN JOSE @ DETROIT Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET Under is 6-1-1 in Sharks last 8 games as a road underdog. Over is 5-1 in Red Wings last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 4-1 in Sharks last 5 overall. Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings. Under is 4-1 in Sharks last 5 games as an underdog. Over is 4-1 in Sharks last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 6-2-1 in Sharks last 9 road games. Over is 4-1-1 in Sharks last 6 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
NY RANGERS @ COLUMBUS Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET Under is 4-0-1 in Blue Jackets last 5 following a home loss of 3 or more goals. Favorite is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 6-1 in Rangers last 7 road games. Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 5-1 in Blue Jackets last 6 vs. Metropolitan. Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite. Over is 5-1 in Rangers last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
OTTAWA @ PHILADELPHIA Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET Under is 6-0-1 in Senators last 7 vs. Metropolitan. Under is 6-0-2 in Flyers last 8 games as a home underdog. Senators are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings. Under is 6-0-1 in Senators last 7 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Senators are 5-0 in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 4-0-1 in Flyers last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Senators are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite. Senators are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
DALLAS @ CHICAGO Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET Under is 7-0 in Stars last 7 overall. Under is 5-0-1 in Blackhawks last 6 games as a favorite. Under is 6-0 in Stars last 6 games as a favorite. Under is 5-0 in Stars last 5 vs. Western Conference. Under is 5-0 in Stars last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 4-0 in Stars last 4 road games. Under is 4-0 in Stars last 4 vs. Central. Under is 3-0-1 in Blackhawks last 4 games as a home favorite.
ST. LOUIS @ NASHVILLE Oct 17 • 8:00 PM ET Under is 6-0 in Predators last 6 vs. Central. Over is 4-0 in Blues last 4 road games. Under is 7-1 in Predators last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 6-1 in Blues last 7 vs. Central. Under is 7-1 in Predators last 8 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Over is 5-1 in Blues last 6 overall. Under is 8-2 in Predators last 10 vs. Western Conference. Over is 5-1 in Blues last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
BOSTON @ LOS ANGELES Oct 17 • 9:00 PM ET Kings are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Bruins are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles. Over is 6-1 in Bruins last 7 vs. Western Conference. Bruins are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. Bruins are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Pacific. Bruins are 4-1 in their last 5 road games. Over is 4-1 in Bruins last 5 games as a road favorite.
PITTSBURGH @ VEGAS Oct 17 • 10:00 PM ET Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Over is 6-1-1 in Golden Knights last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. Over is 5-1-1 in Golden Knights last 7 vs. Metropolitan. Over is 5-1-2 in Golden Knights last 8 games as an underdog. Penguins are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Pacific. Golden Knights are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Over is 4-1 in Golden Knights last 5 home games. Golden Knights are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
EDMONTON @ UTAH Oct 17 • 10:00 PM ET Under is 4-0-1 in Oilers last 5 overall. Over is 5-0-1 in Mammoth last 6 games as an underdog. Under is 4-0-1 in Oilers last 5 vs. Western Conference. Oilers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite. Under is 6-0-2 in Oilers last 8 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Mammoth are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Under is 4-0-2 in Oilers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Oilers are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
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 Re: 10/17 Statistical Advantages
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Joined: Apr 2023
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Missouri @ Ole Miss (-5.5) Missouri (5-1, 2-1) Mizzou won its last two games, running for 220-252 yards. Tigers’ only loss: 31-24 at Mississippi State. Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 3 on defense. Tigers have 118 returning starts on the offensive line. Junior QB Simmons started two games at Ole Miss.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 17-15-1 ATS as an underdog. Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 8-11 ATS as a road underdog. In his career, Drinkwitz is 20-15-1 ATS as an underdog. Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 29-23-1 ATS in SEC games. Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
Ole Miss (4-1, 2-1) Ole Miss scored 41-41-32-52 points in their wins. Ole Miss only loss: 52-28 at Florida. Rebels have 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense. Rebels have 92 returning starts on offensive line. Senior QB Chambliss started 13 games last year. Ole Miss is 12-16-1 ATS last 29 games as a home favorite. Rebels gained 409+ total yards in all five games. Rebels are 21-24 ATS in last 45 SEC games. Ole Miss is 7-9 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win. Louisville/Florida gained 468-498 yards against the Rebels.
These teams haven’t met since 2019. SEC home favorites are 8-7 ATS.
North Carolina @ Duke (-3) North Carolina (3-2, 1-1) UNC allowed 28-37 points in losses, 10-3-17 in wins. Last two games, Tar Heels were held to 285-269 total yards. Tar Heels have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense. Tar Heels have 21 returning starts on offensive line. Senior QB Edwards has 13 career starts (Maryland/Wisconsin)
Tar Heels are 7-10-1 ATS last 18 games as an underdog. Under Belichick, UNC is 3-4 ATS as a road underdog. Belichick is 6-6 ATS as an underdog in college games. North Carolina is 17-25-1 ATS in last 43 ACC games. Under Belichick, UNC is 5-3-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Duke (4-1, 1-1) Duke was upset in its last game, 28-25 at Georgia Tech. Blue Devils have run for 211.8 yards/game in its I-A games. Blue Devils have 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense. Duke has 83 returning starts on the offensive line. Senior QB Eget started 18 games at San Jose State.
Under Diaz, Duke is 5-6 ATS as a home favorite. In his career, Diaz is 12-16 ATS as a home favorite. Under Diaz, Duke is 12-6 ATS in ACC games. In his career, Diaz is 25-18-1 ATS in conference games. Duke beat North Carolina last two years, 32-25/21-20.
Tar Heels covered four of last six visits to Duke. Over is 3-1 in last four meetings. ACC home favorites are 4-5 ATS
Penn State at Michigan (-6) Penn State (3-2, 0-2) PSU lost first two Big 18 games, giving up 24-34-31 points. Last 2 games, Nittany Lions were held to 48-68 rushing yards. Nittany Lions have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense. Penn State has 51 returning starts on the offensive line. Senior QB Becht started 39 games at Iowa State.
Since 2022, Penn State is 1-3 ATS as a road underdog. In his career, Campbell is 25-12-1 ATS as a road underdog. Nittany Lions are 8-14 ATS in last 22 conference games. In his career, Campbell is 67-57-3 ATS in conference games. Penn State is 8-6 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss. In his career, Campbell is 36-25-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Michigan (3-1, 0-1) Michigan lost its last two games, 20-19/20-14 Wolverines held all five opponents under 300 TY. Wolverines have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense. Michigan has 64 returning starts on offensive line. Soph QB Underwood has 14 career starts.
Michigan is 9-15-2 ATS in last 26 games as a home favorite. In his career, Whittingham is 58-48-2 ATS as a home favorite. Michigan is 8-12 ATS in last 20 conference games. In his career, Whittingham is 100-84-1 in conference games. Michigan is 6-4 ATS in last ten games coming off a loss. Four of their five games stayed under the total.
These teams haven’t met since 2023. Michigan won seven of last ten series games. Penn State is 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Ann Arbor. Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Notre Dame (-10.5) @ BYU Notre Dame (6-0) Notre Dame covered four of its six games. Last two weeks, Notre Dame ran ball for 241-361 yards. Irish have 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense. Notre Dame has 64 returning starts on offensive line. Soph QB Carr started 12 games last year.
Under Freeman, ND is 24-16-1 ATS as a favorite. Since 2017, ND is 20-11-2 ATS as a road favorite. Notre Dame is +13 in turnovers this year. Last three weeks, Notre Dame gained 444-475-598 total yards. Last three Notre Dame games went over the total.
BYU (5-0) BYU held four of five opponents to 17 or fewer points. BYU held last two opponents to 259-200 total yards. Cougars have 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense. Broncos have 66 starts returning on the offensive line. Soph QB Bachmeier started 14 games last year.
Under Sitake, BYU is 27-17-1 ATS as an underdog. In his career, Sitake 9-6-1 ATS as a home underdog. BYU is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games coming off a win. Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
These teams haven’t met since 2022. Notre Dame is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in last six series games.
Wisconsin at UCLA (-2.5) Wisconsin (4-1, 2-0) Wisconsin won its two Big 18 games, 24-20/31-3 Badgers’ one loss: 41-13 vs Notre Dame. Badgers have 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense. Badgers have 46 returning starts on offensive line. Junior QB Joseph started 12 games at Old Dominion LY
Under Fickell, Badgers are 8-9 ATS as an underdog. In his career, Fickell is 22-17 ATS as an underdog. Under Fickell, Badgers are 4-4 ATS as a road underdog. In his career, Fickell is 15-11 ATS as a road underdog. Last 2+ years, Badgers are minus-19 in turnovers. Under Fickell, Wisconsin is 16-13 ATS in conference games.
UCLA (4-0, 2-0) UCLA won its three Big 18 tilts, 52-38/54-3/17-15 Bruins ran ball for 200+ yards in four of five games. UCLA has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense. Bruins have 124 returning starts on offensive line. #2 QB Dieffenach gets start; #1 QB Iamaleava is hurt.
UCLA is 10-19-1 ATS last 30 games as a favorite (2-0 TY). In his career, Chesney is 9-6 ATS as a home favorite. UCLA is 12-7-1 ATS in last 19 conference games. In his career, Chesney is 10-9-1 ATS in conference games. UCLA is 7-3-1 ATS last ten games coming off a win.
These teams haven’t met since 2000. Big 18 home favorites are 2-11 ATS.
Kentucky at Oklahoma (-6.5) Kentucky (5-1, 3-1) Kentucky won its last two games, both in overtime. Kentucky’s one loss: 45-17 at home to Alabama Wildcats have 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense. Wildcats have 89 returning starts on OL, from various places. Junior QB Minchey was a backup at Notre Dame.
Wildcats are 11-7 ATS last 18 games as an underdog. Kentucky is 11-7 ATS last 18 games as a road underdog. Last 5+ years, Kentucky is 24-20 ATS in SEC games. Wildcats are 12-8 ATS last 20 games coming off a win. Kentucky’s last five games went over the total.
Oklahoma (3-2, 1-1) Oklahoma upset their rivals Texas last week, 27-24. Last four games, Sooners ran ball for 77.3 yards/game. Oklahoma has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense. Sooners have 97 returning starts on the offensive line. Senior QB Mateer has 24 career starts.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 20-9-1 ATS as a favorite. Under Venables, Oklahoma is 15-11 ATS as a home favorite. Under Venables, Sooners are 16-20-1 ATS in conference games. Under Venables, Oklahoma is 13-20-1 ATS in games coming off a win
These teams haven’t met in the last 25 years. SEC home favorites are 8-7 ATS.
Nebraska @ Oregon (-7) Nebraska (5-1, 2-1) Nebraska lost 20-17 at home to Indiana last week. Nebraska won only road game, 31-13 at Michigan State. Cornhuskers have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense. Nebraska has 123 returning starts on offensive line. Senior QB Colandrea started 31 games at Virginia/UNLV
Under Rhule, Nebraska is 4-5-1 ATS as a road underdog. In his career, Rhule is 22-13-1 ATS as a road underdog. Under Rhule, Nebraska is 12-16-2 ATS in conference games. In his career, Rhule is 55-36-2 ATS in conference games. Over is 3-2 in their I-A games.
Oregon (3-2, 1-1) Oregon was upset 17-15 at home by UCLA last week. Ducks were held to 90-73 rushing yards in their two losses. Oregon has 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense. Ducks have 52 returning starts on the offensive line. Oregon has QB injury issues; #3 QB Thomas finished LW’s game.
Under Lanning, Ducks are 16-12 ATS overall as a home favorite. Since 2017, Oregon is 27-23-2 ATS as a home favorite. Oregon is 5-2 ATS last seven games coming off a loss Under Lanning, Ducks are 25-17 ATS in conference games. Four of their five games went over the total.
These teams haven’t met since 2017. Big 18 home favorites are 2-11 ATS
God bless all our first responders and all the special medical professionals who dedicate their lives to saving and caring for us all!
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