Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar First and Goal The Limper NFL 2026-27 – Week 9

The model did pretty well this past week, nearly perfect straight-up. Hope this continues. GLTA

Last week it was noted that the model’s final straight-up margins of victory (SU-MOV) had some odd swings to it, and I agree. Actually more than “odd”, a few were inexplicable. The problem, however, from my perspective, originates in the failure of my Injury Module (IM) – as I mentioned earlier this season - and replacing it with a more simplified Value-Above-Replacement (VAR) application.

The VAR is a simple device (built years ago for my NBA projections) based on the difference of values between starters and backups, but doesn’t extensively measure impact values (ie. how the replacement player, such as a QB, impacts various team units (O-Line effectiveness, the rushing and passing games, as well as opponent defensive production, etc.). The IM, which is only about 5 years old, and which I struggle with every off-season, incorporates the VAR, as well the impact values on 11 offensive and defensive variables, and was working pretty well – until it started failing to download variable data necessary for it to run - so, I began using the VAR.

And that worked fine until - after my health adventure - I decided to ‘improve’ it. Big mistake.

Don’t know where the bugs are in my ‘improvements’, but I’ve now returned to the original VAR, and I hope it stays the course.
GLTA