Last night a rather easy 2-0 with player props for the Heat/Celtics game.
When I look at the numbers, I look at the regular season numbers and the playoff numbers to give me an idea if a player is over performing, under performing or if they are doing what they did on average all season long. Then I look at the posted number for tonight's game and see how did the book adjust from the prior game in the series. Is there an over reaction, no reaction or just a total disregard. Depending on the player the books take various actions. The bigger the player profile the more they seem to adjust. For a lower profile player they either don't adjust or don't adjust enough.
To me there is so much more than just posting a selection and I'd rather try to lay things out there to give people food for thought or understand my thought process.
To each their own but I can't blindly side with someone because ABC said take Team XYZ. I don't know if it's a mailed in pick or if they truly did the work to come up with the pick. I'll take a persons pick way more serious with thought behind it over just a pick. I know I don't always give a reasoning but I can assure you, I put in the work and don't just wake up and say yep Team ABC it is and throw it out there and hope it hits.
So here's my work for tonight
These numbers represent Points/Rebounds/Assists. I like calling it PAR over PRA but it's all the same.
Lakers
Player -- P/O - RS - Tonight's #
Reaves -- 25.1 -- 19.4 -- 23.5
Davis -- 39.4 -- 41 -- 41.5
James -- 39.4 -- 43 -- 41.5
Schroeder -- 12.3 -- 19.6 -- 14.5
Russell -- 22.9 -- 26.4 -- 20.5
Rui -- 15.5 -- 15 -- 17.5
At first glance you can see Reaves is the only player that has significant better Playoff numbers than regular season. Outside of Rui, no one else is beating their RS numbers. So where do I see some potential. Russell over 20.5 even if he just plays to his PO average he beats that number and this is lower than his RS #. He would be worth the look.
Nuggets
Player -- P/O - RS - Tonight's #
Porter -- 23.7 -- 23.9 -- 23.5
Brown -- 18.4 -- 19 -- 17.5
Murray -- 37.8 -- 30.2 -- 35.5
Joker -- 54.6 -- 46.1 -- 53.5
Pope -- 16.4 -- 15.9 -- 15.5
Gordon -- 21 -- 25.9 -- 21.5
Murray and Joker are far exceeded there RS averages and pope is a fraction ahead. The rest have lower numbers with Porter/Brown close and Gorden well under.
I truly don't see any advantages here. I had Joker over 50.5 in game 1 and he shredded that in the third quarter. Will he have the same game this time, I highly doubt it and that's why you see RUI number higher as he likely gets more game time to harass Joker. I don't think he gets the start though. So if Joker is harassed who benefits the most? Based on odds and averages the book has no clue as only Gordon has a higher # tonight than his playoff average.
One thing that came to mind is rebounds, Davis is at 12.5 with PO at 13.8 and RS 12.5 Joker is at 13.5 PO and 11.8 RS and sits at 13.5.
So this tells me there is a buy low, sell high situation by the books. They've peppered the juice on Joker and Davis however, they've left Davis at his RS average while pumping up Joker to his PO average.
So with all this written out what are the plays?
Davis Over 12.5 rebounds. I think he'll get more tonight than game one which was 10. Joker won't get 21 tonight which leaves room for Davis to get a few more and get back to his PO average.
Going with Reaves over 23.5 PAR , he likely won't have a 33PAR as last game but he'll have a lot of looks from 3 and get share of assists.
Note I left Russell off, I don't know if his playing time will be diminished tonight or not, so I'd rather pass then guess.
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