NCAAF 1-1 (+.9 units)
Football is back. Here are the first 3 plays on the card.
3 units Penn st @ West Virginia under 51.5
Is this the year James Franklin gets over the hump? Drew Allard returns for his third year, Penn states defense has some of the best linebackers in the country, and the schedule shapes up favorably. This is not an easy opening road game for the Nitty Lions. After reviving the Mountaineer program last year with. 9-4 record, Neal Brown has silenced the critics. The center piece of this team is returning Qb Greene, who emerged as breakout player. With the majority of the returning cast and a few key portal additions, West Virginia had a chance to be a contender. As far as this matchup, West Virginia will have revenge on its mind, and Morgantown will be rocking. The problem is Penn st is but to stop the run, and will dare Greene to beat them through the air. I’m not convinced Penn st will be rolling on offense yet with a new oc, and I have to see it before I believe it with Allard. I see this as being a low scoring, tight game for 3 quarters. And if penn st turns the ball over West Virginia can pull this off. Because he’s f this Penn st will be content on running the ball and getting out with a win. The public has bet this down to 8, so for value I lean Penn st, but I can see a late score late in each direction. I trust defense more than offense, especially early. I’m taking the under in this physical matchup.
4 units Florida +3 buying the hook
This game features two coaches that are under a ton of pressure to win entering year three. Mario is a great recruiter, but can he win a close game with good decision making ( See GT game last year)? There’s no doubt which team has the best talent. The Cain’s hired the best Qb mercenary money could buy in Cam Ward. In addition to the Qb, they also filled several holes in their roster via the transfer portal. Sunbelt Billy is a slow start away from the hot seat in Gainesville. The scheduling gods did the gators no favors this year…brutal ending with Uga, at Texas, lsu, ole miss, and at FSU. The good news is returning QB Graham Mertz, who is coming off an impressive first season with Florida. The Gators need him to pull this off. Poor Florida has no chance…at least that’s what the numbers on paper say. Did you know the Gators are 41-1-2 straight up in home openers in the swamp? You know that place will be rocking Saturday afternoon. I worry that similar to Florida state last week, the canes will still be figuring out how to play together as a team. Also, Cam Ward was very turnover prone last season. This will be the hardest road game start of his career. If this game was in late October, I think the canes might be a 10 point favorite. I’m riding with the wounded cat backed into the corner…Give the gators at home. I’m buying the hook to +3 .
3 units Texas Am -3 vs Notre Dame
This game screams rock fight. The strength for both teams is on the defensive side. The fighting Irish brought in experienced Duke qb, Reilly Leonard, to lead them to the playoff. The good news is the Notre dame defense is loaded with NFL talent, the bad news is that their oline and receiver talent is piss poor. Leonard will be have to but the team on his back. On the other side Am returns Qb Conner Wegman. Injuries have prevented Conner from reaching his potential…so far. New head coach Mike Elko inherits a roster that has plenty of blue chip talent. In fact, Texas am has always had the talent, Jimbo just could not develop it. Elko is the perfect fit long term for the Aggies, the question is can he team be disciplined enough to win a close game. I think so. ND is better on paper, but is a road dog…seems the boys in the desert know something. Situationally this is a tough spot on the road, with a new quarterback vs the 12th man. I think Elko is the better coach, and the kicker is that he was the coach for Leonard last year. I think he takes advantage of Reilleys weaknesses just enough, and AM finds a way to win this one. Play AM -3
More to come… | 
