1 unit : Aaron Rai ov Ben Griffin (+104) available at BookMaker / (+103) at BetOnline
1 unit : Erik Van Rooyen ov Max McGreevy (-119) available at Pinnacle / (-131) at BookMaker
1 unit : Ludvig Aberg Top 20 (-140) available at BetOnline - in event of a tie, dead-heat rules will apply.

I've circled three central themes I'm going to base around:
1) distance/long irons. - last year 9 of the top 12 ranked T25 in driving distance.
2) greens in reg. - 10 of last 13 winners ranked T10.
3) putting (bent/poa mix) - 10 of last 13 winners ranked T10 for putting.

- Rai ranks 18th in the field in Weighted Prox., bigger diff. w/ the long irons (30th v 78th). Second, Rai ranks 20th in GIR (v 45th for Griffin). Rai's SG:OTT ranks 30th in the field (v 99th for Griffin), and excels at narrow fairways (12th) + thick rough (14th) which could prove a distinct advantage this weekend. Third, putting metrics edge Rai especially when I started weighing Poa greens, add in the fact Griffin ranks 148th in the field putting on Poa greens + he's outperformed his metrics over L24 rounds. 3 factors edge Rai and I believe he should be a short fav in this matchup.

- For starters, EVR ranks 93 spots better (30th) than Max (123rd) in my model rankings. Max has missed the cut in the past two events and ranks outside the top 100 in SG:PUT (weighted, Poa & Bent), Long irons (OTT:Thick rough + OTT:Narrow fairways) and driving distance. He actually really excels at scrambling/bogey avoidance which is why his SG:Approach is ranked 12th. I just really think he's going to struggle converting these long Par 4's and WAY overvalued which makes him a good fade candidate. I chose the EVR route b/c he ranks T15 in Weighted SG:T2G, Distance/ Long irons & Weighted prox. EVR lost 1.51 strokes putting last week when he MC at the AMEX. I'm not really concerned bc a) that's a birdie fest where you can't lose with your putter and b) he actually gained 2.74 strokes T2G which will do him wonders this week in tougher conditions. EVR is 24th (80 spots better) in overall weighted scoring meaning he should convert his par chances more often than Max.
**For those w/o Pinny, BookMaker also offers this wager currently at -131 and I would also recommend the -1.5 strokes at -101 as I do believe Max will ultimately miss the cut for the third straight week.

- Aberg ranks 1st in my model and was my first click at 12/1 on Monday (10/1 sill avail at Kambi books under enhanced offerings). Finished 9th at Farmer's last year, already has a T5 in Hawaii this season. Ranks top 5 in the field in; Weighted SG:TOT, SG:T2G, SG: Long + Difficult Scoring, Distance + Long irons (OTT thick rough + OTT narrow fairways), Overall scoring. Dudes a stud. He'll see success striking the ball in the three core themes I've circled. He gained +2.81 SG:PUT in round 4 of the Sentry, if he can maintain half of that momentum I predict he gets in the mix on Saturday and gets the first "signature win" of his career.


Near misses;
- I bet Hideki Matsuyama 'Top Japanese' at -180 and obviously I like Aberg in all these markets (Swedish/Cont. European/Scandinavian) depending how much risk you wanna take on.
- I'm personally betting Doug Ghim ov Harris English -105 at Pinnacle, I'd probably even lay -120 at bookmaker too. Big discrepancies across the board, just some weird market moves on English that I don't understand this week.
- Jaeger has been in great form and I think +100 ov Spaun is a decent shout, although if you have access to 'Top German' at +130 a much better route. Hopefully we'll have a good opportunity round-by-round.
- I really wanted to get behind Finau in some fashion but I just can't trust his putter enough.
- wanted some exposure on Berger but his matchups v Rodgers (-110) and v Smalley (-120) probably pretty fair prices.


I've been betting on golf for two years now. I haven't come across any good services that bet H2H markets so been trying it out myself. I thought I would start posting to see if there's anyone who would bounce ideas off of, and to keep myself more accountable. Starting the season fresh here and hopefully have some fun! YTD 0-0, +0.0u