East

East — 1 Duke vs 16 Siena
Duke comes in as the overall 1‑seed with elite shot creation, depth, and athleticism that Siena simply can’t match over 40 minutes. Siena’s best path would be to slow the game, junk it up defensively, and hope Duke has a cold shooting night, but Duke’s ability to score at all three levels makes that fragile. On the glass, Duke has a clear edge, which means Siena’s margin for error on first‑shot defense is tiny. Turnovers are another problem—Siena’s ballhandling under pressure is shaky, and live‑ball turnovers against Duke usually turn into layups or open threes. Even if Siena hangs around early, Duke’s bench and pace should stretch this out. This is as close to “no realistic upset path” as it gets in the bracket.

East — 8 Ohio State vs 9 TCU
This is a true 8/9 game where the seed line actually matches the handicap—two flawed but dangerous teams. Ohio State has a bit more half‑court scoring reliability, especially in late clock situations, while TCU leans more on athleticism, transition, and offensive rebounding. If the whistle is loose and this turns into a physical game, TCU’s ability to generate second chances and free throws becomes a real factor. But if it’s called tighter and possessions slow down, Ohio State’s shot quality and perimeter creation give them the edge. Turnovers are a swing stat here—TCU can’t afford to waste possessions against a team that’s slightly more efficient per trip. Slight lean to Ohio State, but this is one of the more honest coin‑flips on the board.

East — 5 St. John’s vs 12 Northern Iowa
Classic 5/12 profile clash: St. John’s wants tempo and chaos, Northern Iowa wants control and shot selection. St. John’s has the higher athletic ceiling and can overwhelm weaker opponents when they get downhill and turn defense into offense. Northern Iowa’s upset path is all about limiting live‑ball turnovers, forcing St. John’s to play in the half court, and hitting a high percentage from three. If St. John’s gets impatient and settles for early, contested jumpers, they can absolutely let Northern Iowa hang around into the late second half. But over 40 minutes, the talent and physicality gap is real, especially on the wings. St. John’s advances more often than not, but this is a real 12‑seed with a coherent upset script.

East — 4 Kansas vs 13 Cal Baptist
Kansas has the clear edge in talent, size, and schedule battle‑testing, but this isn’t a totally free square. Cal Baptist can shoot it well enough to be annoying if Kansas has one of those flat offensive days where the ball sticks and the spacing dies. The Jayhawks’ advantage is on the interior and on the defensive end—Cal Baptist will struggle to generate clean looks inside the arc and may be forced into a three‑heavy shot diet. If those threes fall, this can get uncomfortable for a while; if they don’t, Kansas can suffocate them. The key for Kansas is not turning this into a loose, low‑discipline game where they trade threes for twos. With a focused effort, Kansas should control the glass, get to the line, and pull away. Upset is possible in a small slice of outcomes, but


East — 3 Michigan State vs 14 North Dakota State
Michigan State has the classic tournament profile: physical defense, rebounding, and enough shot‑making to separate from overmatched teams. North Dakota State’s best hope is to drag this into a low‑possession game, hit a high percentage from deep, and hope Michigan State has one of those clunky offensive nights. The problem is that Michigan State usually wins the effort and physicality battles, which means NDSU will be under pressure on every catch and every rebound. If NDSU can’t keep Michigan State off the offensive glass, the upset window shrinks fast. The Spartans also have a coaching and experience edge that tends to show up in late‑game execution. Upset is theoretically possible if the threes rain, but Michigan State is the clear side.

East — 7 Dayton vs 10 New Mexico
This is one of the most interesting 7/10 games on the board—both teams are good enough to win a game or two if the bracket breaks right. Dayton has the more structured half‑court offense and can really punish defensive mistakes with spacing and ball movement. New Mexico brings more athletic pop and can turn this into a track meet if Dayton’s transition defense isn’t sharp. If the refs let contact go, New Mexico’s physicality and rim pressure become a real problem; if it’s tighter and more tactical, Dayton’s execution edge shows. Three‑point variance is huge here—Dayton’s shooting can blow this open or leave the door wide open. This is a live dog spot; taking the 10 is absolutely reasonable.

East — 2 UConn vs 15 Furman
UConn has a clear edge in size, depth, and two‑way efficiency; Furman’s only real path is to turn this into a three‑point shooting contest and hope for a perfect storm. UConn’s interior defense and rebounding should choke off most of Furman’s easy looks, forcing them into contested jumpers late in the clock. On the other end, UConn can play inside‑out, collapsing the defense and generating high‑quality threes or post touches. Furman’s defense is unlikely to hold up for 40 minutes against that kind of sustained pressure. If UConn avoids a catastrophic turnover game and doesn’t completely no‑show from deep, this stays comfortable. This is one of the safer 2 vs 15 spots on the board.