West

1 ARIZONA vs 16 LIU
Arizona’s size, pace, and offensive versatility create a mismatch LIU cannot solve over 40 minutes. LIU’s only realistic path is to slow the game to a crawl and hope Arizona has a catastrophic shooting night. Arizona does not rely on one scoring mode and can punish mismatches inside, run in transition, and generate clean looks from three. Arizona should dominate the glass, eliminating LIU’s margin for error. Even if LIU hits early threes, Arizona’s depth and physicality will break the game open. This is one of the lowest‑variance 1/16 matchups in the field.

8 VILLANOVA vs 9 UTAH STATE
Villanova brings discipline, spacing, and a slow tempo, while Utah State leans on offensive flow and shot‑making. If the game is officiated tightly, Villanova’s free‑throw edge and late‑clock execution matter. Utah State’s upset path is to hit threes at a high clip and keep Villanova off the offensive glass. The moderate pace keeps variance in play, and one hot stretch from either side could swing it. Villanova’s experience gives them a slight edge, but this is a true toss‑up. Either side is defensible.

5 WISCONSIN vs 12 HIGH POINT
Wisconsin’s slow, low‑turnover style reduces variance, which hurts a 12‑seed looking for chaos. High Point needs pace, turnovers, and transition to create easy points. Wisconsin usually controls tempo and forces opponents into half‑court possessions. Wisconsin should be fine on the glass and will get better shots over time. High Point needs elite three‑point shooting to stay alive. This is one of the more stable 5/12 games.

4 ARKANSAS vs 13 HAWAI‘I
Arkansas has a clear athletic and physical edge, especially in transition. Hawai‘i must slow the game, limit turnovers, and force Arkansas to execute in the half court. If Arkansas gets downhill and lives at the rim and free‑throw line, this can snowball. Hawai‘i likely needs a high‑percentage shooting night from three to keep up. Foul trouble for Arkansas is the one way this gets interesting. Arkansas advances most of the time.

6 BYU vs 11 TEXAS / NC STATE
BYU has strong spacing and offensive balance, but both Texas and NC State are capable of creating problems. Texas brings physicality and defensive pressure; NC State brings shot‑making volatility. BYU’s edge is structure and ball movement, which can pick apart either defense if they avoid turnovers. The 11‑seed’s upset path is to disrupt rhythm, win the free‑throw battle, and force BYU into late‑clock isolation. This is a real upset candidate, not a fake one. BYU is the rightful favorite but not safe.

3 GONZAGA vs 14 KENNESAW STATE
Gonzaga’s offense is too efficient and versatile for Kennesaw State to handle. Kennesaw needs a three‑point variance game and a cold Gonzaga shooting night. Gonzaga can score inside, in transition, and from mid‑range, so they are not dependent on one shot type. Gonzaga should control the glass and limit second chances. If they avoid foul trouble and stay engaged, this stays in double digits. Upset chances are extremely thin.

7 MIAMI (FL) vs 10 MISSOURI
Miami brings guard play and shot‑making; Missouri brings balance and physicality. If Miami’s guards get comfortable, Missouri’s defense can get stretched and give up open threes. Missouri’s path is to win the rebounding battle, get to the line, and make this a half‑court game. Turnovers are key because Miami can be loose with the ball. This is a high‑variance matchup with real swings. Slight lean to Miami, but Missouri is live.

2 PURDUE vs 15 QUEENS
Purdue’s size and interior scoring are a nightmare for Queens. Queens will have to over‑help in the paint, opening up Purdue’s shooters. Queens will struggle to generate clean looks and may be forced into a three‑heavy shot profile. If those threes do not fall at an elite rate, this gets away quickly. Purdue’s rebounding edge should create a large second‑chance points gap. This is a very safe chalk spot.