South

1 FLORIDA vs 16 PRAIRIE VIEW A&M / LEHIGH
Florida has too much size, athleticism, and two‑way balance for either Prairie View A&M or Lehigh to handle. Both 16‑seeds would need a perfect storm of hot shooting and Florida completely no‑showing to make this competitive. Florida’s defense should choke off easy looks and force contested jumpers late in the clock. On offense, they can attack mismatches inside and out while dominating the glass. The only risk is Florida getting careless with turnovers and giving up transition points, but even then the talent gap is massive. This is one of the safest 1/16 spots on the board.

8 CLEMSON vs 9 IOWA
Clemson and Iowa both have capable offenses but very different identities. Iowa wants pace, rhythm, and a high‑possession game where their shooting can create separation. Clemson prefers control, physicality, and half‑court execution. If Iowa is cold from three, their offense can bog down badly; if they’re hot, they can beat almost anyone in this range. Clemson’s edge is on the defensive end and in late‑game execution. This is close, but Clemson is a slightly safer side.

5 VANDERBILT vs 12 MCNEESE
Vanderbilt is a strong 5‑seed with real high‑major chops, while McNeese is dangerous but overmatched physically. McNeese’s upset path is to hit threes, win the turnover battle, and hope Vanderbilt has one of its flat offensive days. Vanderbilt’s edge is in size, physicality, and schedule strength—they’ve seen better teams than McNeese all season. If Vanderbilt controls the glass and gets to the line, McNeese will struggle to keep up. The key is Vanderbilt not letting this turn into a loose, up‑and‑down game where variance spikes. Chalk is still the sharper side.

4 NEBRASKA vs 13 TROY
Nebraska is a top‑15‑quality team with good balance and enough offense to separate from weaker opponents. Troy’s best chance is to slow the game, force Nebraska into tough jumpers, and hope for a cold shooting night. Nebraska’s edge is on both ends—they can guard, rebound, and score in multiple ways. If Troy cannot generate easy points, they will be overly reliant on contested threes. Nebraska just needs to avoid a turnover‑fest and stay disciplined defensively. Upset is possible in a small slice of outcomes, but Nebraska is clearly favored.

6 NORTH CAROLINA vs 11 VCU
UNC is the more talented team but also volatile, and their shot selection can swing wildly from game to game. VCU brings pressure defense and toughness, which can absolutely bother UNC’s ballhandlers if they are not locked in. The upset path is clear: VCU forces turnovers, turns them into transition points, and keeps UNC off the offensive glass. UNC’s path is to use their size, get downhill, and live at the rim and free‑throw line instead of settling for jumpers. If UNC controls the glass and limits live‑ball turnovers, they should be fine. This is a real upset candidate if UNC shows their worst habits.

3 ILLINOIS vs 14 PENN
Illinois has a strong offensive profile and enough defense to make life difficult for Penn. Penn’s best hope is to turn this into a shooting contest and hit a high percentage from three while Illinois settles for jumpers. Illinois can crush them inside if they commit to it, both in post touches and on the offensive glass. If Illinois gets too perimeter‑happy and does not defend the arc, Penn can hang around. Over 40 minutes, the physical and athletic gap is significant. Chalk is the right side here.

7 SAINT MARY’S vs 10 TEXAS A&M
Saint Mary’s plays slow, deliberate, and efficient basketball, while Texas A&M is more physical and thrives in ugly games. If Saint Mary’s controls tempo and keeps this in the half court, their execution and shot quality give them the edge. Texas A&M’s upset path is to dominate the glass, get to the line, and make this a rock fight where possessions are messy. Turnovers and offensive rebounds will be the key stats—if A&M wins both, they can absolutely steal this. Saint Mary’s is the better shooting team and more consistent possession‑to‑possession. This is close, but Saint Mary’s is a slight favorite.

2 HOUSTON vs 15 IDAHO
Houston is an elite defensive team with the physicality to completely overwhelm Idaho. Idaho will struggle to get clean looks, and their offensive efficiency will likely crater under pressure. On the other end, Houston can generate enough offense through offensive rebounding, free throws, and opportunistic scoring. Even if Houston has a mediocre shooting night, their defense and rebounding should carry them. The only way this gets weird is if Houston has a catastrophic turnover game and Idaho hits an unsustainable number of threes. Realistically, this is one of the safest chalk spots in the bracket.