Midwest

1 MICHIGAN vs 16 UMBC / HOWARD
Michigan has too much size, skill, and two‑way balance for either UMBC or Howard to handle. Both 16‑seeds would need a perfect storm of hot shooting and Michigan completely no‑showing to make this competitive. Michigan’s offense can score inside and out, and their defense should choke off easy looks. On the glass, they should dominate, limiting second chances for the underdog. Turnovers are the only real concern—if Michigan gets sloppy, they can let a team hang around longer than they should. In normal conditions, this is a comfortable Michigan win.

8 GEORGIA vs 9 SAINT LOUIS
Georgia and Saint Louis are both mid‑tier teams with strengths and clear flaws. Georgia may have a slight edge in athleticism and shot creation, while Saint Louis can be more physical and disciplined. If this turns into a grind, Saint Louis’s ability to execute in the half court and get to the line becomes important. Georgia’s path is to push pace when possible and leverage their athletic edge in transition. Three‑point shooting will likely swing this—neither team is so good that they can survive a cold night. This is a genuine coin‑flip; either side is bracket‑defensible.

5 TEXAS TECH vs 12 AKRON
Texas Tech is a strong 5‑seed with a good defensive profile and enough offense to separate from mid‑majors. Akron’s upset path is to hit threes, keep turnovers low, and hope Texas Tech has one of its ugly offensive games. Tech’s edge is in physicality, length, and schedule strength—they’ve seen better teams than Akron all year. If Tech controls the glass and forces Akron into tough, late‑clock shots, this stays comfortable. The risk is if Tech’s offense completely stalls and they let Akron hang around into the final minutes. Chalk is the sharper side here.

4 ALABAMA vs 13 HOFSTRA
Alabama can score in bunches and has the kind of offensive ceiling that can blow games open quickly. Hofstra’s best chance is to turn this into a three‑point shootout and hope Alabama has one of its cold nights from deep. Alabama’s defense can be inconsistent, which gives Hofstra some hope if they can move the ball and find open looks. On the glass and in transition, though, Alabama has a clear edge. If Alabama avoids a turnover‑fest and does not completely implode from three, they should advance. This is a higher‑variance 4/13 game, but the favorite is still right.

6 TENNESSEE vs 11 MIAMI (OH) / SMU
Tennessee is a physical, defensive‑minded team that can make life miserable for either Miami (OH) or SMU. The 11‑seed’s path is to hit threes, avoid turnovers, and hope Tennessee’s offense goes into one of its notorious funks. Tennessee’s edge is in rebounding, physicality, and half‑court defense—they can choke off driving lanes and force tough jumpers. If Tennessee gets even average shooting, this can get out of reach quickly. The risk is if Tennessee’s offense completely stalls and they let a lesser team hang around in a low‑scoring game. Still, Tennessee is the clear side.

3 VIRGINIA vs 14 WRIGHT STATE
Virginia’s slow pace and pack‑line defense reduce variance, which is bad for a 14‑seed looking for chaos. Wright State will struggle to get clean looks inside and may be forced into contested jumpers late in the clock. The downside for Virginia is that their own offense can be grindy and low‑margin—if they shoot poorly from three, they can let teams hang around. Wright State’s upset path is to hit a high percentage from deep and win the turnover battle. Virginia’s discipline and defensive structure usually win out in these spots. Chalk is justified, even if the score is closer than expected.

7 KENTUCKY vs 10 SANTA CLARA
Kentucky has more talent and a higher ceiling, but Santa Clara is good enough to punish a sloppy performance. Kentucky’s path is to dominate the glass, get out in transition, and use their athleticism to create easy points. Santa Clara needs to control tempo, hit threes, and force Kentucky into a half‑court game where their decision‑making can be tested. Turnovers and shot selection are the big swing factors—if Kentucky settles for bad jumpers and does not defend the arc, this can get dicey. If they are locked in, their talent gap shows. This is a live dog spot, but Kentucky is still the rightful favorite.

2 IOWA STATE vs 15 TENNESSEE STATE
Iowa State is a strong 2‑seed with a good balance of offense and defense, and Tennessee State is simply outgunned. Tennessee State’s only real path is to hit an unsustainable number of threes and hope Iowa State has a disastrous shooting and turnover night. Iowa State’s defense should generate stops and their offense should find enough good looks to build a steady lead. On the glass, they should be fine, limiting second chances. As long as Iowa State avoids a complete meltdown, this stays comfortable. This is a very safe chalk spot.