FAVORITES MOST LIKELY TO FAIL TO COVER
These are NOT mispriced favorites — they are simply the ones whose style or volatility makes them more likely to win but fail to cover.
Clemson
Iowa’s offense can keep pace for stretches. Clemson wins, but margin is fragile.
Arkansas
They are athletic but streaky. Hawai‘i can slow the game and muddy the margin.
Kentucky
High‑variance team. They can win by 25 or win by 4. Cover probability is unstable.
Miami (FL)
Missouri’s defense is bad, but Miami’s shotmaking volatility creates margin risk.
Saint Mary’s
They win, but A&M’s offensive rebounding can keep the game inside the number.
TCU
Ohio State can grind the pace down and force a margin‑shrinking game.
BYU
Live‑by‑the‑three teams always carry cover risk even when they’re the right side.
Villanova
Utah State can shoot well enough to hang around even if they don’t win. | 
