PURE UPSET‑PROBABILITY AUDIT
This is NOT about covering.
This is ONLY about: Who could actually win outright if the favorite collapses?
Here are the only dogs with even a non‑zero upset path:
Iowa
If Clemson goes cold from deep, Iowa can steal it.
Texas A&M
If Saint Mary’s shoots poorly, A&M’s rebounding can flip the game.
Ohio State
If TCU’s offense stalls, OSU can grind out a low‑possession win.
Utah State
If Villanova goes ice cold, Utah State can shoot their way into it.
Missouri
If Miami’s shotmaking disappears, Missouri can win a sloppy game. | 
