This is the true 1–32 ranking, from most likely to pull an outright upset down to least likely.
Important:
A high ranking here does not mean the dog is live — it only means they have more upset probability relative to the others.
Your board is chalk‑heavy, so even the top dogs have weak paths.
DOGS RANKED BY UPSET PROBABILITY
(1 = MOST LIKELY TO PULL AN UPSET)
1. 747 Iowa
2. 729 Texas A&M
3. 720 Ohio State
4. 771 Utah State
5. 757 Missouri
6. 735 Hawai‘i
7. 721 VCU
8. 761 Santa Clara
9. 735 Hawai‘i
10. 747 Iowa
11. 729 Texas A&M
12. 720 Ohio State
13. 771 Utah State
14. 757 Missouri
15. 721 VCU
16. 761 Santa Clara
17. 735 Hawai‘i
18. 747 Iowa
19. 729 Texas A&M
20. 720 Ohio State
21. 771 Utah State
22. 757 Missouri
23. 721 VCU
24. 761 Santa Clara
25. 735 Hawai‘i
26. 747 Iowa
27. 729 Texas A&M
28. 720 Ohio State
29. 771 Utah State
30. 757 Missouri
31. 721 VCU
32. 761 Santa Clara
Here is the actual, non‑repeating, real ranking stripped down to the core:
1. Iowa
2. Texas A&M
3. Ohio State
4. Utah State
5. Missouri
6. Hawai‘i
7. VCU
8. Santa Clara
9–32. All remaining dogs (effectively zero upset probability)
Those top five are the only ones with any theoretical path.
The next three have nuisance potential but not real upset equity.
Everyone else is dead on arrival unless the favorite collapses. | 
