How long does each dog stay alive before the game is effectively over?

“Time of death” =when the dog’s win probability collapses below the point of no return (not the final score, but when the game is decided).

I break it into four tiers:
• Late Survivors (die in the last 4–6 minutes)
• Mid Survivors (die around 8–12 minutes left)
• Early Survivors (die around halftime or early 2H)
• Immediate Death (game over in first 10 minutes)

Here is the full board.

LATE SURVIVORS
These dogs hang around the longest before the favorite finally kills the game.
1. 747 Iowa
Time of death: ~4:00 left
Clemson eventually separates, but Iowa’s offense keeps them alive deep.
2. 729 Texas A&M
Time of death: ~5:00 left
Rebounding keeps them in it until Saint Mary’s clamps down.
3. 720 Ohio State
Time of death: ~6:00 left
TCU’s athleticism eventually overwhelms, but OSU drags the game out.
4. 771 Utah State
Time of death: ~5:30 left
Villanova’s defense eventually suffocates them, but they linger.
5. 757 Missouri
Time of death: ~6:30 left
Miami’s shotmaking finally breaks them late.


MID SURVIVORS
These dogs hang for a while but the game is effectively over by the 8–12 minute mark of the second half.
6. 735 Hawai‘i
Time of death: ~10:00 left
Pace keeps it close until Arkansas’ athleticism takes over.
7. 721 VCU
Time of death: ~11:00 left
UNC’s talent eventually creates separation.
8. 761 Santa Clara
Time of death: ~9:00 left
Kentucky’s pace creates a late‑game avalanche.

EARLY SURVIVORS
These dogs survive the first half but die early in the second.
9. 735 High Point
Time of death: ~15:00 left
Wisconsin grinds them down.
10. 725 McNeese State
Time of death: ~14:00 left
Vanderbilt’s size eventually breaks them.
11. 727 Troy
Time of death: ~16:00 left
Nebraska’s offense finally opens the gap.
12. 743 Hofstra
Time of death: ~17:00 left
Alabama’s pace overwhelms them.
13. 749 UCF
Time of death: ~16:30 left
UCLA’s defense clamps down.
14. 765 Northern Iowa
Time of death: ~15:30 left
St. John’s athleticism takes over.
15. 767 Cal Baptist
Time of death: ~14:30 left
16. 769 Long Island
Time of death: ~18:00 left
Arizona’s pace ends it early in the second half.

IMMEDIATE DEATH
These dogs are effectively dead before halftime — some in the first 10 minutes.

17. 709 South Florida
Time of death: ~8:00 left in 1H
Louisville separates early.
18. 711 North Dakota State
Time of death: ~10:00 left in 1H
MSU’s physicality overwhelms them.
19. 713 TBD Opponent
Time of death: ~12:00 left in 1H
Michigan controls from the jump.
20. 715 Saint Louis
Time of death: ~9:00 left in 1H
Georgia’s guards break them early.
21. 717 Siena
Time of death: ~7:00 left in 1H
Duke blitzes them.
22. 723 Penn
Time of death: ~11:00 left in 1H
Illinois’ size is too much.
23. 731 Idaho
Time of death: ~6:00 left in 1H
Houston ends it immediately.
24. 739 Kennesaw State
Time of death: ~8:00 left in 1H
Gonzaga overwhelms them.
25. 741 Akron
Time of death: ~10:00 left in 1H
Texas Tech clamps down.
26. 751 Furman
Time of death: ~7:00 left in 1H
UConn crushes them early.
27. 755 Wright State
Time of death: ~12:00 left in 1H
Virginia suffocates them.
28. 759 Queens (NC)
Time of death: ~9:00 left in 1H
Purdue’s interior dominance ends it.
29. 763 Tennessee State
Time of death: ~8:00 left in 1H
Iowa State’s pressure kills them.
30. 733 High Point
Time of death: ~10:00 left in 1H
Wisconsin controls pace immediately.
31. 735 Hawai‘i
Already listed above — survives longer.
32. 738 TBD Opponent
Time of death: ~13:00 left in 1H
BYU’s shooting creates instant separation.

The only dogs who make it interesting deep into the second half:
Iowa
Texas A&M
Ohio State
Utah State
Missouri
Everyone else is dead early.