Sweet 16 Trends
• Laying big points seems to be getting more and more risky in the Sweet 16 in recent years, as favorites of 5 points or more are 20-11 SU but just 11-20 ATS (35.5%) since 2017.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST Purdue, Michigan, Duke, Arizona
• Sweet 16 favorites of 8-points or more are on a 29-9-3 Under (76.3%) the total run, allowing 63.4 PPG.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: UNDER the total in Alabama-Michigan
• Sweet 16 #1 and #2 seeds have taken care of business lately and combined are on a 45-17 SU and 35-26-1 ATS (57.4%) run over the last 11 seasons.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Houston, Purdue, Arizona, Duke, Connecticut, Michigan, Iowa State
• Sweet 16 round is usually the end of the line for double-digit seeds. However, they have been very competitive as underdogs, going 17-7-1 ATS (70.8%) in that role since 2011.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Texas
• The popular #1-#4 matchup has seen #1’s win most often lately, 15-4 SU in the last 19, but they are just 1-6 ATS (14.3%) in the last seven.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST ATS Michigan, Arizona
• Over the last 11 years, there have been 26 Sweet 16 games with totals of less than 138, and Under the total is 19-7 (73.1%).
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: UNDER the total in Michigan State-Connecticut, Iowa-Nebraska
• Teams seeded in the #5-#9 range and a “surprise Sweet 16 team” are dangerous small underdogs of +7.5 points or fewer vs. better-seeded teams in this round, 24-33 SU and 31-22-4 ATS (58.5%) since 2000.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: St Johns
• I mentioned earlier that bettors have not enjoyed a winning second round since 2017, and I referenced the short prep window as the potential reason. In the Sweet 16, they have bounced back, going 42-30-1 ATS (58.3%) in moving opening lines since 2012.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: As of Wednesday, 7:00 PM ET, public bettors were favoring Iowa, Arkansas, Alabama, Connecticut, and Tennessee | 
