Well here we are game 7 of the ECF and not many thought we would be here.

An extra opportunity to deep dive into the stats and hopefully continue the magical run I've been on with these props.

The book makers aren't stupid, they've made mass adjustments for game 7 and it's clear to me who they think is going to win the game. Mind you I didn't say cover the spread but to win the game.

The next few comments are regarding PRA ( Points, Rebounds, Assists )

In game 6 Boston had only one adjustment to their starters numbers. In game 7 all of their starters have adjustments and they are all higher by 1 except Brown which saw an increase of 2.

Miami was a mixed bag and some interesting moves. Butler went down 1 but Bam went up 1. Strus went down 1 and both Vincent and Martin went up 4. Martin wasn't a huge surprise because he gets treated with starter numbers instead of coming off the bench.

Vincent was a surprise but I'm guessing they figure he will shoot better than 6/18. Speaking of which Bam was 4/16 and Butler was 5/21. Three guys shooting 15/55 yet they only lost by one. Add to this it took a put back off a miss with 0.1 left in the game.

If Miami improves their shooting from Bam,Butler,Vincent and stays close, they can steal this game in Boston. Boston's home court during the playoffs is no where near what they did in the regular season. Someone is paying attention as the line opened at 8.5 and has dropped to 7.5.

When I looked the PRA Props for game 7, it's like a broken record from the last few games.

It comes down to Martin and Smart.

Smart relied on scoring last game and his numbers should've been higher as he had great assist passes that guys fumbled out of bounds. He's scored 21 and 23 his last two games and I think the scoring may drop a few points as he's been way ahead of his average. I do think he'll get that back in assists so I'm not overly concerned with the 23.5 PRA for this game. He's been comfortable ahead of that number the last two.

Martin we see his PRA go up 4 and it should've gone up way more than 4. If you've paid attention to what I've said in past write ups, Martin has been playing as a starter in a back up roll. What happened when he started last game 21-15-1. While Bam, Butler, Vincent struggled, he flourished. I've followed him since his days in Nevada. This guy is the real deal. He could use some improvement on defense but PRA doesn't care about D. He's definitely the MVP for Miami in this series and he's had a big hand in getting them this far.

23.5 PRA isn't enough for a player of his caliber. Should be more of a 28.5 type number. If you stretch his numbers to a starter it's a big increase.

I look for Martin to have another big game, sure it's not NCAA but he rose to the occasion in the big games and I can't see that being different today. Boston will still focus on Bam and Butler and that will give him the opportunities necessary.

Before I end this, I know a lot of you have been riding along during this great run. I implore you not to go crazy and over bet. I don't say this because I don't believe in the picks, I don't post picks all the time and only when I see value and opportunity. Yesterday for INDY 500, I made it clear it was for entertainment only and to make the race a little more exciting. These picks ARE NOT for entertainment only they are ones to bet on with confidence. With that said, don't go crazy. I don't know your average bets, I don't know your situation, you bet what you're comfortable with.

If you appreciate a post, you should be giving it a like. If you are posting picks, you should give a reason as to why you like the play. You don't have to do a big write up like I have but I know people are riding along with me so you deserve the full reasoning and insight.

The official plays are:

Smart over 23.5 PRA
Martin over 23.5 PRA

And yes you can parlay them if you like, it should be around +250 or so on the parlay.

Good Luck and enjoy the game.

NBA
Under