Texas State -2.5 at Draftkings as of 3:50 MST on 9/12

This is the game of the season for Texas State. It will be the only nationally televised game they play. TX State is actually a good team with a good coach. Their quarterback, Mccloud, is in his 7th year via James Madison and Arizona and USF. James madison was 10-2 last year with Mccloud starting. He is a highly efficient qb and if he wants any kind of future in football, he's got to keep it up. TX State's coach, BJ, is somewhat of a rising star, especially in the state of Texas. He's from the Gus malzahn coaching tree and has had success along the way. At UCF they were very good offensively, he took Incarnate Word to a 12-2 record and he was a finalist for the top coach award. Random fact, his dad got shot in the chest while he was coaching BJ by a player trying to kill him.
On the other side, AZ State's qb is anything but efficient. His starts are limited and he only had 69 yards passing last week. AZ State very much relies on their running game which is no secret anymore and TX State should be prepared. AZ State is coming off a huge win last weekend against an SEC team. A game in which they almost lost with a 27-point lead in the 3rd quarter mainly because AZ State is one dimensional and Miss St. figured out how to stop it. Why would AZ State care about this game? They've got Texas Tech coming up and they're playing a former FCS team on a Thursday which they have to travel. I don't see AZ State getting up for this game on the short week after a big win and no matter the level, it is hard to play in Texas. This is a bad spot for AZ State.

Win lose or draw, I love this write up. Full of information and great reasoning. In the past, it would've been posted as Texas St -2.5 and nobody would have cared. I absolutely love this !

Keep em coming.

Texas State -2.5 solely a bet on following the smart money ... Texas State has
gone from +2.5 to -2.5 and ASU still getting almost 70%
Of public bets

Miami-2.5
Josh Allen can’t continue to win on his own.

Rays F5 +120

Rays - Pepiot: 3.66 ERA & WHIP 1.14. Averages 5.1 innings pitched in 2024
Guardians - Williams: 5.25 ERA & WHIP 1.37. Averages 4.6 innings pitched in 2024.

Value on the underdog Rays first 5 innings.

Miami Dolphins ML (-138)

There is quite a bit of movement in the market for this game, gradually moving the Dolphins from 0.5-point underdogs to 2 and 2.5-point favorites.
I could see this line moving up to 3, however I am sure the bookmakers would not be happy with the Bills being 3-point underdogs,
so this could see the Dolphins closing at -2.5. If this line moves up to 3, I would not want to bet on it, so I will bet at money line

These two teams met twice last season, with the Bills winning both games.
The Bills beat the Dolphins 48-20 as a 3-point underdog at home in Week 4 and 21-14 as a 2.5-point underdog away in Week 18.
The Bills have played well against the Dolphins of late, winning 11 of their last 12 games.

Miami are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games against Buffalo.
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Miami’s last 14 games played on a Thursday.
Buffalo are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games against Miami.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Buffalo’s last 12 games when playing as the underdog.