Baltimore+6/Pittsburgh-6 Side Selection
Well this is a familiar matchup, unlike the philly/arizona game. These 2 teams have already played 2x this year. Pittsburgh won both matchups. On September 29th Pitt beat Baltimore 23-20 at Heinz Field. Flaco was tough in this game, but Pittsburgh overcame a 76-yard Flaco drive to win. In the 2nd matchup it was decided on a contreversial Santonio Holmes touchdown catch from Big Ben as he scrambled. Raven fans did not believe he broke the plane, but the refs gave it to him. Steelers win 13-9.
So where are we now? Well we all know there is a perception out there on how hard it is to beat a team 3 times in the same season (ask the Dallas Cowboys from 2007, vs Giants). However, the tough minded Steelers who are 14-7 vs. Bal ATS its last 21 games at home seem to have it figured out. On top of that Pitt is 7-4 its last 11 games ATS overall. I know what you are thinking though, the Steelers are a miserable 1-4 ATS L5 AFC Conference Championship Games. That is true and while it is not good it is even worse when you are facing a Ravens squad that went 13-3 in the regular season, 4-1 L5 playoff road games, 7-3 L10 games as an underdog and if that is not enough an amazing 5-1 ATS L6 vs AFC North Opponents.
So we are taking the Ravens, right? Wrong! The trends may all point towards the valued road dog, but we both know better as the higher spread % and ML% is on Baltimore. This game will come down to who wants it most. So, I will take the gritty Steelers to cover the -6 and I anticipate the line to move closer to Steelers -7 by late Saturday, so jump on the Steelers before the weekend.
SIDE PICK: Take the STEELERS -6
Over/Under Pick: No Selection
